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Chongqing Fenghwa Group (600615) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.1B CNY

CF Chongqing Fenghwa Group 600615 · SHG
Price¥9.60
Fair Value¥2.02
Upside-79.0%
Quality49/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -2.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 11/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥1.76 – ¥2.28 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 8, 2026, revised from ¥1.01 to ¥2.02 (+100.0%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +2.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 79% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥14.62 ¥4.34 Fair Value ¥2.02 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.34 – ¥14.62 · fair‑value band ¥1.76 – ¥2.28 · the ¥9.60 price screens above the ¥2.02 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Chongqing Fenghwa Group (600615) currently trades at ¥9.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.02, implying the stock looks roughly 79.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Chongqing Fenghwa Group generated revenue of 601M CNY at a net margin of -2.3%. Revenue declined 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 111M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.76 (bear case) to ¥2.28 (bull case); at ¥9.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -72% fair-value upside, at -79%, 600615 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥5.86 ¥9.58 ¥15.63 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.00 ¥5.98 ¥8.59 74
EV/EBITDA ¥1.16 ¥1.29 ¥1.42 54
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥5.93 ¥10.08 ¥17.15 38
Owner Earnings ¥1.51 ¥2.11 ¥3.12 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥4.00 ¥5.99 ¥8.63 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥2.72 ¥3.31 ¥3.93 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥4.55 ¥6.65 ¥9.78 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥3.79 ¥4.72 ¥5.89 37
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥1.16 ¥1.29 ¥1.42 54
EV/Revenue ¥3.07 ¥4.05 ¥5.04 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.61 ¥2.15 ¥3.22 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥5.86 ¥9.58 ¥15.63 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.00 ¥5.98 ¥8.59 74

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥5.98) versus Multiples (¥1.29). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 601M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -9.5%
Net margin -2.3%
Return on equity -4.1%
Free cash flow 93.5M CNY FY2025
Operating margin -6.3%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.0600
EPS growth (YoY) +123%
Net cash 111M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 44
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Chongqing Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd. through its subsidiary, manufactures and sells magnesium and aluminum metal auto parts in China.

Full company description

Chongqing Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd. through its subsidiary, manufactures and sells magnesium and aluminum metal auto parts in China. It offers magnesium, aluminum alloy die castings such as automobile steering wheel frames, automobile seat slides, motorcycle parts, garden hand tools, home and office products, wall panels, new partition screens, home improvement wardrobes, cabinets, all-aluminum home customization, and bathroom cabinets, municipal products, etc. The company also engages in design, manufacture and sale of agricultural machinery, general machinery and garden machinery. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Chongqing Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd. in September 2022. Chongqing Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chongqing Fenghwa Group reported revenue of ¥617M in FY2025 versus ¥157M in FY2021, a compound +40.8%/yr. Reported net income was −¥4.5M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
617M CNY
Latest YoY
+226.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+59.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+59.4%
Avg. growth/yr (33Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.7%
Revenue +40.8%/yr
FY21 ¥157M
FY22 ¥152M
FY23 ¥158M
FY24 ¥189M
FY25 ¥617M
Net income
FY21 −¥2.8M
FY22 −¥8.1M
FY23 ¥4.2M
FY24 ¥8.8M
FY25 −¥4.5M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) −5.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.7 pp

of which total revenue +9.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.3 pp

EBIT margin −10.0 pp
Tax rate −2.6 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

600615 screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chongqing Fenghwa Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600615

Peer Group

Metal Fabrication · 244 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −79% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -6% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -10% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.42× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.51× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.3× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 36
PAST 0 · sector 21
HEALTH 99 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 25

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chongqing Fenghwa Group (600615) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.02 versus a price of ¥9.60, about −79% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600615?
Our model-based fair value for Chongqing Fenghwa Group is ¥2.02 (as of Aug 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥9.60.
What is the quality score of 600615?
Chongqing Fenghwa Group has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chongqing Fenghwa Group (600615)?
Chongqing Fenghwa Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 601M CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600615?
The net profit margin of Chongqing Fenghwa Group is about -2.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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