Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd stock ¥11.62, price ¥8.32, upside +39.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.49 – ¥14.62 · fair‑value band ¥7.80 – ¥16.68 · the ¥8.32 price screens below the ¥11.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Chongqing Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd. through its subsidiary, manufactures and sells magnesium and aluminum metal auto parts in China.
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It offers magnesium, aluminum alloy die castings such as automobile steering wheel frames, automobile seat slides, motorcycle parts, garden hand tools, home and office products, wall panels, new partition screens, home improvement wardrobes, cabinets, all-aluminum home customization, and bathroom cabinets, municipal products, etc.
The company also engages in design, manufacture and sale of agricultural machinery, general machinery and garden machinery. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Chongqing Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd. in September 2022.
Chongqing Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615) currently trades at ¥8.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.62, implying the stock looks roughly 28% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥7.13 per share, and 2 of the 11 models we run sit above the ¥8.32 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.92, and 9 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥7.80 (bear) to ¥16.68 (bull), the price of ¥8.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 617M CNY in FY2025 versus 157M CNY in FY2021, a compound +40.8%/yr. Reported net income was −4.5M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.1B CNY (≈ $310M) Small · P/S ratio 3.39 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1000 · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity −5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −8.7% · Revenue (TTM) 609M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 40%, 600615 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥7.80Fair Value ¥11.62Bull¥16.68
Price ¥8.32 · Upside +39.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥5.49¥8.95¥14.5279
5Y EBITDA Exit¥2.67¥3.24¥3.8477
Growth DCF¥5.41¥8.45¥13.0477
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥5.49¥8.95¥14.5279
Owner Earnings¥2.14¥3.14¥4.7576
5Y Revenue Exit¥3.90¥5.81¥8.3472
5Y EBITDA Exit¥2.67¥3.24¥3.8477
10Y Revenue Exit¥4.36¥6.32¥9.2167
10Y EBITDA Exit¥3.66¥4.54¥5.6470
Multiples
EV/EBITDA¥0.8800¥1.01¥1.1467
EV/Revenue¥2.79¥3.77¥4.7654
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥1.43¥1.92¥2.8754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥5.41¥8.45¥13.0477
Rev-Margin DCF¥3.90¥5.81¥8.3172
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+226.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.4% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.3% (2020) → −3.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.0% a year for the price.
Compare Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 260 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside+37.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−3.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−8.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.85× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.39× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)22.1× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600615
Frequently asked questions
Is Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.62 versus a price of ¥8.32, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600615?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd is ¥11.62 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.32.
What is the quality score of 600615?
Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.62 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.80, optimistic scenario ¥16.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.62, about +40% upside versus a price of ¥8.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.80, optimistic scenario ¥16.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 609M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +59.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600615 use?
Our models discount Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd that is +9.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd grew +59.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (+9.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.98 %: that much free cash flow Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd it is ¥11.62 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥8.32. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 600615 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥8.32, fair value ¥11.62, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600615?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.62). For Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd the two are ¥3.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd at about 2.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.32; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600615?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥7.80, base ¥11.62, optimistic ¥16.68 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥8.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −5.5%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600615 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd trades at ¥8.32, about 36% below its 52-week high of ¥13.08 and 4% above the low of ¥8.00 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥8.32, calculated fair value ¥11.62 (+40%), Quality Score 49/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600615 calculated?
We run Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd through 11 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥11.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd currently trades 28% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥8.32. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.62, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (49/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥7.80 to ¥16.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd grew −5.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.7 %, EBIT margin −10.0 %, tax rate −2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd is 2.1B CNY (≈ $310M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd is 3.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd are ¥−0.1000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
The net margin of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd is −3.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd is −5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd is −8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
Revenue at Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd is growing +4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +59.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd are growing +123% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd (600615) hold?
Shanghai Fenghwa Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 111M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026