Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company (600616) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 2.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥0.5800 to ¥0.5400 (−6.9%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +9.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.6100). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.75 – ¥11.00 · fair‑value band ¥0.4900 – ¥0.6100 · the ¥4.24 price screens above the ¥0.5400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company (600616) currently trades at ¥4.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.5400, implying the stock looks roughly 87.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company generated revenue of 528M CNY at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue declined 11.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 946M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.4900 (bear case) to ¥0.6100 (bull case); at ¥4.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -87%, 600616 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥2.33) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company Limited produces and sells rice wine products in China. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company reported revenue of ¥528M in FY2025 versus ¥649M in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.0M in FY2025.
of which total revenue −5.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
600616 screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEON | 1,487 MXN | 1,239 MXN | -17% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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