Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd stock ¥1.76, price ¥4.06, that is 56.7% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.75 – ¥11.00 · fair‑value band ¥1.60 – ¥1.92 · the ¥4.06 price screens above the ¥1.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company Limited produces and sells rice wine products in China. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616) currently trades at ¥4.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.76, 57% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥2.23 per share, and 1 of the 21 models we run sit above the ¥4.06 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.4050, and 20 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.60 (bear) to ¥1.92 (bull), the price of ¥4.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2000: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2000.
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd reported revenue of 528M CNY in FY2025 versus 649M CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.0M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.7B CNY (≈ $407M) Small · P/S ratio 5.53 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −16.6% · Revenue (TTM) 501M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −57%, 600616 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥1.60Fair Value ¥1.76Bull¥1.92
Price ¥4.06 · Downside -56.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2000: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2000.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−36.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−37.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Per share before 2000divided by the spin-off factor 1.1402
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−37.2% vs −30.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 0%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.1% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 90 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600616
Frequently asked questions
Is Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.76 versus a price of ¥4.06, about 57% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600616?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd is ¥1.76 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.06.
What is the quality score of 600616?
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.76 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.60, optimistic scenario ¥1.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.76, about 57% lower versus a price of ¥4.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.60, optimistic scenario ¥1.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 501M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.23% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.05 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 9, 2026. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.37 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +24.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.8 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600616 use?
Our models discount Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd that is +24.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd grew -2.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +24.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (+24.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.69 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd it is ¥1.76 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of ¥4.06. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 600616 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.06, fair value ¥1.76, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600616?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.76). For Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd the two are ¥2.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd at about 2.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.06; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600616?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.60, base ¥1.76, optimistic ¥1.92 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price ¥4.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 0.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600616 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd trades at ¥4.06, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥5.95 and 8% above the low of ¥3.75 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price ¥4.06, calculated fair value ¥1.76 (−57%), Quality Score 59/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600616 calculated?
We run Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd through 21 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥1.76 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥4.06. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.76, about 57% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd grew −9.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.9 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd is 2.7B CNY (≈ $407M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd is 5.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd is 1.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
The net margin of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd is −16.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
Revenue at Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd is growing −11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd are growing −50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd (600616) hold?
Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 946M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026