Xinyu Iron & Steel Co (600782) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 8.9B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥0.4700 to ¥0.9400 (+100.0%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +8.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 66% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥0.3600 to ¥1.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.48 – ¥9.26 · fair‑value band ¥0.3600 – ¥1.32 · the ¥2.78 price screens above the ¥0.9400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
Xinyu Iron & Steel Co (600782) currently trades at ¥2.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.9400, implying the stock looks roughly 66.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Xinyu Iron & Steel Co generated revenue of 34.4B CNY at a net margin of -2.0%. Revenue declined 15.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.7%. Net debt stands at 209M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.3600 (bear case) to ¥1.32 (bull case); at ¥2.78, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -66%, 600782 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥7.17) versus Multiples (¥0.1800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Xinyu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd produces and sells steel products in China. The company offers wire rods, cold and hot rolled coils, medium and thick plates, special steel, silicon steel, steel strand, electronic steel, and metal products.
Full company description
Xinyu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd produces and sells steel products in China. The company offers wire rods, cold and hot rolled coils, medium and thick plates, special steel, silicon steel, steel strand, electronic steel, and metal products. It also engages in the smelting, rolling processing, and sales of ferrous metal; manufacturing of cement and cement product, graphite, and carbon product; manufacturing, sales, installation and maintenance of chemical, raw materials, and chemical product; import and export trade; house construction, installation and maintenance; warehousing and leasing; providing internet services; and agricultural development. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Xinyu, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Xinyu Iron & Steel Co reported revenue of ¥41.8B in FY2024 versus ¥72.4B in FY2020, a compound −12.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥32.8M in FY2024, compounding −66.8%/yr from FY2020.
600782 screens 66% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Peer Group
Steel · 378 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
| Ternium S.A TXR | 17,780 ARS | 27,210 ARS | +53% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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