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Xinyu Iron & Steel Co (600782) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 8.9B CNY

XI Xinyu Iron & Steel Co 600782 · SHG
Price¥2.78
Fair Value¥0.9400
Upside-66.2%
Quality45/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -2.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.79% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 12/100
Evidence: High Range ¥0.3600 – ¥1.32 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥0.4700 to ¥0.9400 (+100.0%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +8.6% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 66% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (¥0.3600 to ¥1.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥9.26 ¥2.48 Fair Value ¥0.9400 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.48 – ¥9.26 · fair‑value band ¥0.3600 – ¥1.32 · the ¥2.78 price screens above the ¥0.9400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Xinyu Iron & Steel Co (600782) currently trades at ¥2.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.9400, implying the stock looks roughly 66.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Xinyu Iron & Steel Co generated revenue of 34.4B CNY at a net margin of -2.0%. Revenue declined 15.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.7%. Net debt stands at 209M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥0.3600 (bear case) to ¥1.32 (bull case); at ¥2.78, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -66%, 600782 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥9.36 ¥17.58 ¥32.38 80
Residual Income ¥5.40 ¥4.97 ¥3.23 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.42 ¥4.49 ¥6.00 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥9.76 ¥16.08 ¥33.07 38
Owner Earnings ¥2.61 ¥5.02 ¥9.79 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥3.42 ¥4.23 ¥5.37 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.17 ¥8.08 ¥12.74 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥3.37 ¥4.27 ¥5.13 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥5.36 ¥7.26 ¥8.93 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.57 ¥10.41 ¥16.63 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥5.34 ¥7.17 ¥9.58 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.0700 ¥0.4700 ¥0.6600 54
Lynch FV ¥0.1400 ¥0.2000 ¥0.2600 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.1400 ¥0.2000 ¥0.2600 46
EPV ¥0.7000 ¥0.7300 ¥0.7500 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.68 ¥3.35 ¥5.08 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.68 ¥2.90 ¥3.54 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥0.1300 ¥0.1800 ¥0.2200 63
P/S Multiple ¥0.1300 ¥0.1800 ¥0.2200 58
P/B Multiple ¥0.1300 ¥0.1800 ¥0.2200 55
EV/EBIT ¥0.7500 ¥0.8200 ¥0.8900 53
EV/EBITDA ¥3.31 ¥4.24 ¥5.16 54
EV/Revenue ¥0.7200 ¥0.8000 ¥0.8800 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.10 ¥5.50 ¥8.21 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥9.36 ¥17.58 ¥32.38 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥3.42 ¥4.49 ¥6.00 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.40 ¥4.97 ¥3.23 76
ROIC Compounder ¥0.7000 ¥0.7300 ¥0.7500 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥0.1800 ¥0.2500 ¥0.3300 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥7.17) versus Multiples (¥0.1800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 34.4B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -15.9%
Net margin -2.0%
Return on equity -2.7%
Free cash flow 2.0B CNY FY2024
Operating margin -10.0%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.2200
Dividend yield 4.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +26.2%
Net debt 209M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 47
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Xinyu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd produces and sells steel products in China. The company offers wire rods, cold and hot rolled coils, medium and thick plates, special steel, silicon steel, steel strand, electronic steel, and metal products.

Full company description

Xinyu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd produces and sells steel products in China. The company offers wire rods, cold and hot rolled coils, medium and thick plates, special steel, silicon steel, steel strand, electronic steel, and metal products. It also engages in the smelting, rolling processing, and sales of ferrous metal; manufacturing of cement and cement product, graphite, and carbon product; manufacturing, sales, installation and maintenance of chemical, raw materials, and chemical product; import and export trade; house construction, installation and maintenance; warehousing and leasing; providing internet services; and agricultural development. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Xinyu, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years

Xinyu Iron & Steel Co reported revenue of ¥41.8B in FY2024 versus ¥72.4B in FY2020, a compound −12.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥32.8M in FY2024, compounding −66.8%/yr from FY2020.

Growth Quality 33/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2024)
41.8B CNY
Latest YoY
−41.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−26.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−6.3%
Avg. growth/yr (31Y)
+20.3%
Revenue −12.8%/yr
FY20 ¥72.4B
FY21 ¥105B
FY22 ¥99.0B
FY23 ¥71.1B
FY24 ¥41.8B
Net income −66.8%/yr
FY20 ¥2.7B
FY21 ¥4.4B
FY22 ¥1.0B
FY23 ¥498M
FY24 ¥32.8M

600782 screens 66% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xinyu Iron & Steel Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600782

Peer Group

Steel · 378 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −66% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -10% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -16% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.11× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.05× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.04× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 20
FUTURE 0 · sector 4
PAST 0 · sector 15
HEALTH 95 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 96 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Tata Steel Limited TTST $0.2010 $0.2000 -0%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,227 ₹1,140 -7%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.89 ¥8.07 +37%
China Steel Corporation 2002A 38.55 TWD 8.74 TWD -77%
POSCO Holdings 005490 313,500 KRW 155,270 KRW -50%
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID 13,670 ARS 15,940 ARS +17%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,028 ₹545.12 -47%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,844 ₹1,098 -40%
Gerdau S.A GGBN 83.50 MXN 42.64 MXN -49%
Ternium S.A TXR 17,780 ARS 27,210 ARS +53%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Xinyu Iron & Steel Co (600782) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.9400 versus a price of ¥2.78, about −66% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600782?
Our model-based fair value for Xinyu Iron & Steel Co is ¥0.9400 (as of Aug 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥2.78.
What is the quality score of 600782?
Xinyu Iron & Steel Co has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Xinyu Iron & Steel Co (600782)?
Xinyu Iron & Steel Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 34.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600782?
The net profit margin of Xinyu Iron & Steel Co is about -2.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Xinyu Iron & Steel Co pay a dividend?
Xinyu Iron & Steel Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.09% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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