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Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A stock ¥8.00, price ¥5.00, upside +60.0%, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical CN · ISIN CNE100001NQ2

GA Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A logo Thin data Nov 2, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A

601238 · SHG
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 38% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value ¥8.00 · Strongly undervalued (38%)
Low debt
Revenue last quarter +16% vs. a year ago.
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Quality 36/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −4.9 %/yr in CNY)
Loss-making · -10.7% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 6/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Price drop: Joint venture sales plunge driving sharp volume declines🚩Sales plunge in traditional joint ventures
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥19.67 ¥4.68 Fair Value ¥8.00 May 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.68 – ¥19.67 · fair‑value band ¥5.97 – ¥11.94 · the ¥5.00 price screens below the ¥8.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, research, develops, manufactures, and sells vehicles and motorcycles, and parts and components in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Vehicles and Related Operations; and Others segments.

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The company produces and sells passenger vehicles comprising sedans, SUVs, and MPVs; commercial vehicles consisting of fuel-powered and new energy heavy-duty trucks, new energy light-duty trucks, new energy buses, and pickup trucks; automotive parts, such as engines, gearboxes, car seats, micro motors, shifters, power batteries, battery cells and electric drives and controllers, and interior and exterior decorations; and motorcycles, including sport bikes, scooters, and electric bicycles and motorcycles.

It also offers logistics, second-hand vehicle, supporting, and mobility transportation services. In addition, the company provides automobile credit, insurance brokerage, financial investment, finance lease, and other financing services. Further, it trades in automobiles, automotive parts, and steel.

The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group Co. Ltd.

Stock analysis

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238) currently trades at ¥5.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.00, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 89/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: ¥5.97 (bear) to ¥11.94 (bull), the price of ¥5.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 94.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 75.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was −8.8B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 51.7B CNY (≈ $7.8B) Mid · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.04 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin −10.7% · Return on equity −12.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin −17.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 60%, 601238 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥5.97 Fair Value ¥8.00 Bull ¥11.94
Price ¥5.00 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.94 ¥5.28 ¥7.88 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.94 ¥5.28 ¥7.88 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 6
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 9
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 15
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 54
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 79
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 82
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 17
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 4
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 25/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
15.1% (2004) → −16.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Note from the team Oct 26, 2026
AI conclusion: Rapid expansion of new energy brands forms the main strength while sustained net losses and negative cash flows from legacy joint ventures mark the central weakness.
Main risk: Further sharp sales drops at the Honda and Toyota joint ventures would hit overall volumes and deepen losses across the business.
GAC's traditional joint ventures with Honda and Toyota saw sales plunge in September, driving overall volumes down sharply even as its own new energy brands expanded rapidly. Our models view the shares as overvalued amid persistent losses and competitive pressures in the domestic market. Will the accelerating overseas and electric push eventually outweigh the drag from legacy operations, or will the transition continue to weigh on results?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −10.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −17.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 15.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.09× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.49× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.51× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)78 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)8 · sector 51

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €42.91 €106.12 +147% vs 601238
Ford Motor Company F $12.53 $20.27 +62% vs 601238
General Motors Company GM $89.33 $107.81 +21% vs 601238
Honda Motor Co HMC $36.26 $39.60 +9% vs 601238
Ferrari N.V RACE $422.40 $449.76 +6% vs 601238
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $218.11 $212.64 −3% vs 601238
BYD Company 002594 ¥86.25 ¥77.84 −10% vs 601238
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 293,500 KRW 257,654 KRW −12% vs 601238
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €47.24 €24.72 −48% vs 601238
Tesla, Inc TSLA $343.69 $40.00 −88% vs 601238

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Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601238

Frequently asked questions

Is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.00 versus a price of ¥5.00, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601238?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is ¥8.00 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.00.
What is the quality score of 601238?
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.00 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.97, optimistic scenario ¥11.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.00, about +60% upside versus a price of ¥5.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.97, optimistic scenario ¥11.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 100B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A currently shows a dividend yield of 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A it is ¥8.00 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of ¥5.00. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, 601238 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥5.00, fair value ¥8.00, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601238?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.00). For Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥3.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A at about 51.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.00; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601238?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥5.97, base ¥8.00, optimistic ¥11.94 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price ¥5.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity −12.5%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601238 from its 52-week high?
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥5.00, about 46% below its 52-week high of ¥9.25 and 7% above the low of ¥4.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price ¥5.00, calculated fair value ¥8.00 (+60%), Quality Score 36/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601238 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥5.00. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.00, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥5.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥5.97 to ¥11.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A

How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is 51.7B CNY (≈ $7.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A are ¥−1.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is −10.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is −12.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is −17.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is growing +15.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A are growing −80.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is −19.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A (601238) carry?
The net debt of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Ltd Class A is 7.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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