Guangzhou Automobile Group (601238) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 53.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 8, 2026, revised from ¥0.4300 to ¥2.69 (+525.6%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +2.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥1.28 to ¥4.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.89 – ¥19.67 · fair‑value band ¥1.28 – ¥4.45 · the ¥5.25 price screens above the ¥2.69 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Guangzhou Automobile Group (601238) currently trades at ¥5.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.69, implying the stock looks roughly 48.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangzhou Automobile Group generated revenue of 96.9B CNY at a net margin of -9.0%. Revenue grew 1.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.1%. Net debt stands at 7.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.28 (bear case) to ¥4.45 (bull case); at ¥5.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at -49%, 601238 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥48.28) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.27). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, research, develops, manufactures, and sells vehicles and motorcycles, and parts and components in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Vehicles and Related Operations; and Others segments.
Full company description
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, research, develops, manufactures, and sells vehicles and motorcycles, and parts and components in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Vehicles and Related Operations; and Others segments. The company produces and sells passenger vehicles comprising sedans, SUVs, and MPVs; commercial vehicles consisting of fuel-powered and new energy heavy-duty trucks, new energy light-duty trucks, new energy buses, and pickup trucks; automotive parts, such as engines, gearboxes, car seats, micro motors, shifters, power batteries, battery cells and electric drives and controllers, and interior and exterior decorations; and motorcycles, including sport bikes, scooters, and electric bicycles and motorcycles. It also offers logistics, second-hand vehicle, supporting, and mobility transportation services. In addition, the company provides automobile credit, insurance brokerage, financial investment, finance lease, and other financing services. Further, it trades in automobiles, automotive parts, and steel. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group Co. Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangzhou Automobile Group reported revenue of ¥94.7B in FY2025 versus ¥75.7B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was −¥8.8B in FY2025.
601238 screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 118 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $179.76 | $224.63 | +25% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$80.55 | HK$50.85 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 425,000 KRW | 616,918 KRW | +45% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.72 | $56.93 | -27% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,944 MXN | +54% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | $376.64 | $228.05 | -39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | C$11.86 | C$4.00 | -66% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ | C$20.44 | C$35.15 | +72% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,191 CZK | +235% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,803 | ₹8,236 | -40% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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