Alamar Foods CJSC (6014) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Alamar Foods CJSC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
49‑month range 36.84 SAR – 145.65 SAR · fair‑value band 23.97 SAR – 39.96 SAR · the 41.00 SAR price screens above the 31.96 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Alamar Foods Company, together with its subsidiaries, establishes, operates, and manages quick service restaurants in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan. It operates restaurants under the Domino's and Dunkin' brands under franchisee agreements. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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Alamar Foods Company, together with its subsidiaries, establishes, operates, and manages quick service restaurants in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan. It operates restaurants under the Domino's and Dunkin' brands under franchisee agreements. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Alamar Foods Company is a subsidiary of Abdul Aziz Ibrahim Al Jammaz and Brothers Company.
Stock analysis
Alamar Foods CJSC (6014) currently trades at 41.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 31.96 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 28.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 49.68 SAR per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the 41.00 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 7.88 SAR, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 23.97 SAR (bear) to 39.96 SAR (bull), the price of 41.00 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Alamar Foods CJSC reported revenue of 946M SAR in FY2025 versus 868M SAR in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was 47.6M SAR in FY2025, compounding −20.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.0B SAR (≈ $276M) · P/E ratio 20.7 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) 1.98 SAR · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 17.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −22%, 6014 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 23.97 SARFair Value 31.96 SARBull 39.96 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
’18
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 5%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 223 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−26% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alamar Foods CJSC (6014) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 31.96 SAR versus a price of 41.00 SAR, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6014?
Our model-based fair value for Alamar Foods CJSC is 31.96 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 41.00 SAR.
What is the quality score of 6014?
Alamar Foods CJSC has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 31.96 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 23.97 SAR, optimistic scenario 39.96 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alamar Foods CJSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 31.96 SAR, about −22% upside versus a price of 41.00 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 23.97 SAR, optimistic scenario 39.96 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
Alamar Foods CJSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 972M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Alamar Foods CJSC pay a dividend?
Alamar Foods CJSC currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alamar Foods CJSC would have to grow free cash flow by +4.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6014 use?
Our models discount Alamar Foods CJSC at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alamar Foods CJSC that is +4.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alamar Foods CJSC (6014) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alamar Foods CJSC grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies +4.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alamar Foods CJSC (+4.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.60 %: that much free cash flow Alamar Foods CJSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alamar Foods CJSC it is 31.96 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 41.00 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alamar Foods CJSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 6014 trades above its calculated fair value: price 41.00 SAR, fair value 31.96 SAR, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6014?
No. The price is what the market pays today (41.00 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (31.96 SAR). For Alamar Foods CJSC the two are 9.04 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alamar Foods CJSC worth?
The market values Alamar Foods CJSC at about 1.0B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 41.00 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 31.96 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6014?
Our models span a range for Alamar Foods CJSC: cautious scenario 23.97 SAR, base 31.96 SAR, optimistic 39.96 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 41.00 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6014?
Alamar Foods CJSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 31.96 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 2.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alamar Foods CJSC (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 17.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6014 from its 52-week high?
Alamar Foods CJSC trades at 41.00 SAR, about 21% below its 52-week high of 51.61 SAR and 12% above the low of 36.60 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 31.96 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alamar Foods CJSC?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alamar Foods CJSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 41.00 SAR, calculated fair value 31.96 SAR (−22%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6014 calculated?
We run Alamar Foods CJSC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 31.96 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Alamar Foods CJSC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Alamar Foods CJSC right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (39.96 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Key figures of Alamar Foods CJSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
The market capitalisation of Alamar Foods CJSC is 1.0B SAR (≈ $276M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alamar Foods CJSC is 1.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
Earnings per share at Alamar Foods CJSC are 1.98 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
The dividend yield of Alamar Foods CJSC is 5.4% (payout 111%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
The net margin of Alamar Foods CJSC is 5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alamar Foods CJSC is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alamar Foods CJSC is 12.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
The operating margin of Alamar Foods CJSC is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
Revenue at Alamar Foods CJSC is growing +12.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alamar Foods CJSC (6014)?
Earnings per share at Alamar Foods CJSC are growing −19.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alamar Foods CJSC (6014) carry?
The net debt of Alamar Foods CJSC is 128M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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