Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd ¥1.45, price ¥8.18, upside -82.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Chongqing Afari Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufacture and sale of automobiles and motorcycles under the Lifan, Paifang, and Ruilan brands in China and internationally. It operates through JPMorgan Business, Automotive Business, Real Estate Business, Automotive Intelligent Solutions, and Other Business segments.
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Chongqing Afari Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufacture and sale of automobiles and motorcycles under the Lifan, Paifang, and Ruilan brands in China and internationally. It operates through JPMorgan Business, Automotive Business, Real Estate Business, Automotive Intelligent Solutions, and Other Business segments. The company also provides motorcycle and general-purpose gasoline engines; general machinery; and intelligent vehicle solutions, including intelligent driving and cockpits. In addition, it engages in research and development; real estate; property services; and management services. The company was formerly known as Chongqing Qianli Technology Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Chongqing Afari Technology Co., Ltd. in September 2025. Chongqing Afari Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Chongqing, China.
Stock analysis
Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777) currently trades at ¥8.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.45, 82.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥4.50 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the ¥8.18 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at ¥0.3600, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 10.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +25.9%/yr. Reported net income was 84.4M CNY in FY2025, compounding +11.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 37.0B CNY (≈ $5.5B) · P/E ratio 272.7 · P/S ratio 2.30 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0300 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity −2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −82%, 601777 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.45Fair Value ¥1.45Bull ¥1.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0227 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.5% vs −13.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−71% → −2%
2025 sits 87% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.6% a year for the price.
Compare Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−82.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−5.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth30.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)272.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.59× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.50× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF23.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601777
Frequently asked questions
Is Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.45 versus a price of ¥8.18, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601777?
Our model-based fair value for Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd is ¥1.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.18.
What is the quality score of 601777?
Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 21 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.45, about −82% upside versus a price of ¥8.18 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601777 use?
Our models discount Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd that is +9.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd grew +22.4 % a year. The price currently implies +9.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (+9.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.30 %: that much free cash flow Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd it is ¥1.45 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥8.18. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 601777 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.18, fair value ¥1.45, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601777?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.45). For Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd the two are ¥6.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd at about 37.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.18; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.45 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of 601777?
Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 272.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.3%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601777 from its 52-week high?
Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd trades at ¥8.18, about 35% below its 52-week high of ¥12.54 and 16% above the low of ¥7.07 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥8.18, calculated fair value ¥1.45 (−82%), Quality Score 54/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601777 calculated?
We run Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥8.18. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.45, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
The market capitalisation of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd is 37.0B CNY (≈ $5.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd is 2.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
Earnings per share at Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd are ¥0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 272.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
The dividend yield of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd is 0.2% (payout 47.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
The net margin of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd is 0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd is −0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
The operating margin of Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
Revenue at Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd is growing +30.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777)?
Earnings per share at Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd are growing +143% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd (601777) hold?
Lifan Industry Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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