Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd ¥2.03, price ¥2.44, upside -16.8%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.07 – ¥4.46 · fair‑value band ¥1.55 – ¥2.59 · the ¥2.44 price screens above the ¥2.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, research, develops, manufactures, and sells containers in the United States, Asia, Hong Kong, Mainland China, Europe, and internationally.
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COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, research, develops, manufactures, and sells containers in the United States, Asia, Hong Kong, Mainland China, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Container Manufacturing Business; Shipping Leasing Business; Container Leasing Business; and Investment Management Business segments. The company offers dry cargo, refrigerated, and special containers, as well as container houses and after-sales services; integrated shipping, logistics, and industry finance services; and vessel chartering and financial leasing services, including container ships, dry bulk carriers, special-purpose vessels, and tankers. COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd. was formerly known as China Shipping Container Lines Company Limited and changed its name to COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd. in November 2016. COSCO SHIPPING Development Co., Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866) currently trades at ¥2.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.03, 16.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥3.98 per share, and 4 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥2.44 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.4000, and 9 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.55 (bear) to ¥2.59 (bull), the price of ¥2.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 25.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 37.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −9.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding −28.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 32.2B CNY (≈ $4.8B) · P/E ratio 20.2 · P/S ratio 1.29 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −17%, 601866 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.55Fair Value ¥2.03Bull ¥2.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0623 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.7% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.9% vs 7.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.7%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (9 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−16.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.3% · Below median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)11.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.72× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601866
Frequently asked questions
Is Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.03 versus a price of ¥2.44, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601866?
Our model-based fair value for Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is ¥2.03 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.44.
What is the quality score of 601866?
Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.03 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.55, optimistic scenario ¥2.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.03, about −17% upside versus a price of ¥2.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.55, optimistic scenario ¥2.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 26.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd it is ¥2.03 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ¥2.44. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 601866 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥2.44, fair value ¥2.03, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601866?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.03). For Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd the two are ¥0.4100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd at about 32.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.44; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601866?
Our models span a range for Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.55, base ¥2.03, optimistic ¥2.59 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ¥2.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601866?
Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 1.1, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 601866?
The PEG ratio of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is 0.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 1.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601866 from its 52-week high?
Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd trades at ¥2.44, about 25% below its 52-week high of ¥3.25 and 10% above the low of ¥2.21 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ¥2.44, calculated fair value ¥2.03 (−17%), Quality Score 45/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601866 calculated?
We run Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥2.44. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.03, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
The market capitalisation of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is 32.2B CNY (≈ $4.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is 1.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
Earnings per share at Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd are ¥0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
The dividend yield of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is 1.5% (payout 30.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
The net margin of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
The operating margin of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
Revenue at Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866)?
Earnings per share at Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd are growing +21.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866) generate?
The free cash flow of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is −4.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd (601866) carry?
The net debt of Cosco Shipping Development Co Ltd is 56.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026