Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd ¥14.93, price ¥18.00, upside -17.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥17.34 – ¥79.49 · fair‑value band ¥12.28 – ¥15.74 · the ¥18.00 price screens above the ¥14.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells liquor products in China. The company offers baijiu under the Kouzijiao, Lao Kouzi, Kouzifang, and Kouzijiu brands, as well as wine products. It sells its products through e-commerce platforms. Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co., Ltd.
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Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells liquor products in China. The company offers baijiu under the Kouzijiao, Lao Kouzi, Kouzifang, and Kouzijiu brands, as well as wine products. It sells its products through e-commerce platforms. Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is based in Huaibei, China.
Stock analysis
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589) currently trades at ¥18.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.93, implying the stock looks roughly 20.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥23.52 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥18.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥9.30, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥12.28 (bear) to ¥15.74 (bull), the price of ¥18.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd reported revenue of 4.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 5.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 673M CNY in FY2025, compounding −21.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.3B CNY (≈ $1.8B) · P/E ratio 27.3 · P/S ratio 4.60 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6600 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 16.9% · Return on equity 3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at −17%, 603589 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥12.28Fair Value ¥14.93Bull ¥15.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1170 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−33.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17% vs 1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42% → 21%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603589
Frequently asked questions
Is Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥14.93 versus a price of ¥18.00, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603589?
Our model-based fair value for Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd is ¥14.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥18.00.
What is the quality score of 603589?
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥14.93 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥12.28, optimistic scenario ¥15.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥14.93, about −17% upside versus a price of ¥18.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥12.28, optimistic scenario ¥15.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd it is ¥14.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥18.00. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603589 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥18.00, fair value ¥14.93, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603589?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥18.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥14.93). For Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd the two are ¥3.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd worth?
The market values Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd at about 12.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥18.00; our models calculate a fair value of ¥14.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603589?
Our models span a range for Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥12.28, base ¥14.93, optimistic ¥15.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥18.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603589?
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥14.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
Balance-sheet figures for Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.6%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603589 from its 52-week high?
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd trades at ¥18.00, about 47% below its 52-week high of ¥33.66 and 4% above the low of ¥17.34 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥14.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥18.00, calculated fair value ¥14.93 (−17%), Quality Score 51/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603589 calculated?
We run Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥14.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥18.00. Our model-based fair value is ¥14.93, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥15.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589) come from?
Earnings per share at Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd grew +13.7 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.0 %, EBIT margin +4.4 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
The market capitalisation of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd is 12.3B CNY (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd is 4.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd are ¥0.6600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
The dividend yield of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd is 2.8% (payout 75.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
The net margin of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd is 16.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd is 16.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
The operating margin of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd is 30.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
Revenue at Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd is growing −24.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589)?
Earnings per share at Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd are growing −46.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589) generate?
The free cash flow of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd is −407M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd (603589) hold?
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.9B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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