Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co (603648) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.2B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +2.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.68 – ¥15.07 · fair‑value band ¥5.35 – ¥8.92 · the ¥9.17 price screens above the ¥7.14 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co (603648) currently trades at ¥9.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.14, implying the stock looks roughly 22.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co generated revenue of 1.6B CNY at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 11.1M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.35 (bear case) to ¥8.92 (bull case); at ¥9.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -22%, 603648 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥7.87) versus Asset-Based (¥3.44). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co., Ltd. provides lean supply chain management and logistics services in China and internationally.
Full company description
Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co., Ltd. provides lean supply chain management and logistics services in China and internationally. It offers same warehouse online and offline; consignment repair; E-commerce platform management and peak solutions; freight forwarding and special transportation; consumer products; special vehicle imports and export trade solutions; on-line ingredient and admission logistics; medical customer consulting services; bonded and non-guaranteed two warehouses integrated model; global circulation of large mechanical remanufacturing parts; and configured car certification. It serves high-tech electronics, medical equipment and reagents, mechanical equipment parts, imported food and clothing, and lean manufacturing. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co reported revenue of ¥1.5B in FY2025 versus ¥1.6B in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥123M in FY2025, compounding −4.1%/yr from FY2021.
603648 screens 22% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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