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Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co (603648) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 3.2B CNY

SS Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co 603648 · SHG
Price¥9.17
Fair Value¥7.14
Upside-22.1%
Quality63/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 8.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.64% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Narrow moat 44/100
Evidence: High Range ¥5.35 – ¥8.92 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Share price +2.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥15.07 ¥6.68 Fair Value ¥7.14 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.68 – ¥15.07 · fair‑value band ¥5.35 – ¥8.92 · the ¥9.17 price screens above the ¥7.14 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co (603648) currently trades at ¥9.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.14, implying the stock looks roughly 22.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co generated revenue of 1.6B CNY at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 11.1M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥5.35 (bear case) to ¥8.92 (bull case); at ¥9.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -22%, 603648 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥6.64 ¥8.69 ¥11.56 80
Residual Income ¥4.10 ¥4.30 ¥4.45 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.00 ¥6.88 ¥8.98 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥6.45 ¥8.62 ¥11.81 38
Owner Earnings ¥5.91 ¥7.87 ¥10.77 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥5.00 ¥6.77 ¥9.03 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥7.37 ¥10.87 ¥14.95 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥5.67 ¥7.93 ¥10.27 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥5.42 ¥7.05 ¥8.94 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.95 ¥9.73 ¥12.98 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥5.92 ¥7.80 ¥9.78 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.31 ¥4.56 ¥5.72 54
EPV ¥3.53 ¥4.01 ¥4.42 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.69 ¥3.74 ¥4.79 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.69 ¥3.70 ¥4.85 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥5.35 ¥7.14 ¥8.92 63
P/S Multiple ¥4.33 ¥5.78 ¥7.22 58
P/B Multiple ¥4.33 ¥5.78 ¥7.22 55
EV/EBIT ¥5.90 ¥7.70 ¥9.49 53
EV/EBITDA ¥9.06 ¥11.90 ¥14.75 54
EV/Revenue ¥4.37 ¥6.01 ¥7.65 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.57 ¥3.44 ¥5.14 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥6.64 ¥8.69 ¥11.56 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.00 ¥6.88 ¥8.98 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.10 ¥4.30 ¥4.45 76
ROIC Compounder ¥3.53 ¥4.01 ¥4.42 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥3.87 ¥5.52 ¥7.18 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥7.87) versus Asset-Based (¥3.44). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.6B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.3%
Net margin 8.0%
Return on equity 6.8%
Free cash flow 218M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 25.8
More key figures
Operating margin 11.9%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.3400
Dividend yield 3.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +4.9%
Net cash 11.1M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co., Ltd. provides lean supply chain management and logistics services in China and internationally.

Full company description

Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co., Ltd. provides lean supply chain management and logistics services in China and internationally. It offers same warehouse online and offline; consignment repair; E-commerce platform management and peak solutions; freight forwarding and special transportation; consumer products; special vehicle imports and export trade solutions; on-line ingredient and admission logistics; medical customer consulting services; bonded and non-guaranteed two warehouses integrated model; global circulation of large mechanical remanufacturing parts; and configured car certification. It serves high-tech electronics, medical equipment and reagents, mechanical equipment parts, imported food and clothing, and lean manufacturing. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co reported revenue of ¥1.5B in FY2025 versus ¥1.6B in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥123M in FY2025, compounding −4.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.5B CNY
Latest YoY
+1.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−2.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
+3.4%
Revenue −0.9%/yr
FY21 ¥1.6B
FY22 ¥1.6B
FY23 ¥1.6B
FY24 ¥1.5B
FY25 ¥1.5B
Net income −4.1%/yr
FY21 ¥146M
FY22 ¥162M
FY23 ¥153M
FY24 ¥131M
FY25 ¥123M

603648 screens 22% overvalued. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603648

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −22% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.04× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 4 · sector 45
FUTURE 27 · sector 8
PAST 27 · sector 26
HEALTH 98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 73 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $117.72 $104.58 -11%
FedEx Corporation FDX $314.69 $347.68 +10%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €57.22 €53.18 -7%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,660 kr 712.57 -57%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 209.90 CHF 147.92 -30%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $291.41 $133.80 -54%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥31.91 ¥48.64 +52%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $193.50 $86.56 -55%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $172.02 $115.95 -33%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 HK$181.40 HK$241.93 +33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co (603648) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.14 versus a price of ¥9.17, about −22% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603648?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co is ¥7.14 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥9.17.
What is the quality score of 603648?
Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co (603648)?
Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603648?
The net profit margin of Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co is about 8.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co pay a dividend?
Shanghai Shine-Link International Logistics Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.64% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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