Lily Group (603823) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 18.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥7.65 to ¥6.82 (−10.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.03 – ¥81.93 · fair‑value band ¥5.11 – ¥8.52 · the ¥65.90 price screens above the ¥6.82 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Lily Group (603823) currently trades at ¥65.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.82, implying the stock looks roughly 89.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lily Group generated revenue of 2.2B CNY at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 565M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.11 (bear case) to ¥8.52 (bull case); at ¥65.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -90%, 603823 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥7.49) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.20). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lily Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells organic pigments and pigment intermediates in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers paint, ink, plastic, and pearlescent pigments, as well as fine chemical products. It also provides enterprise management services. The company exports its products to Europe and the United States.
Full company description
Lily Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells organic pigments and pigment intermediates in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers paint, ink, plastic, and pearlescent pigments, as well as fine chemical products. It also provides enterprise management services. The company exports its products to Europe and the United States. The company was formerly known as Lily Group and changed its name to Lily Group Co., Ltd. in 2012. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Lily Group Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Lily Holding Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lily Group reported revenue of ¥2.2B in FY2025 versus ¥2.5B in FY2021, a compound −3.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥167M in FY2025, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2021.
603823 screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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