Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Holtek Semiconductor Inc TWD 29.14, price TWD 58.20, upside -49.9%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Holtek Semiconductor Inc. engages in the research, development, production, and sale of integrated circuits in Taiwan, China, and internationally.
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Holtek Semiconductor Inc. engages in the research, development, production, and sale of integrated circuits in Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company provides a range of general purpose and specialized types of microcontrollers (MCU) for use in the areas of voice, communication, computer peripheral, household appliance, medical equipment, automotive, and industrial control and security surveillance; and power management devices, LCD and LED drive/control chips, ultra-high resolution fingerprint identification sensors, and various sensor modules. It's MCU products are used for general purpose, motor MCU and peripheral, health and measurement, security and safety, battery and power management, touch/proximity and peripheral, music and voice, special purpose, wireless, power management, display, special purpose, module, amplifier and comparator, interface bridge, and miscellaneous applications. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202) currently trades at 58.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 29.14 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 99.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 19.38 TWD per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 58.20 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 3.71 TWD, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 23.56 TWD (bear) to 34.72 TWD (bull), the price of 58.20 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Holtek Semiconductor Inc reported revenue of 3.1B TWD in FY2025 versus 7.1B TWD in FY2021, a compound −19.1%/yr. Reported net income was 173M TWD in FY2025, compounding −46.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 13.4B TWD (≈ $420M) · P/E ratio 76.6 · P/S ratio 4.34 · EPS (TTM) 0.7600 TWD · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −50%, 6202 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 23.56 TWDFair Value 29.14 TWDBull 34.72 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5580 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.6% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−29.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30% vs −14%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.3% a year for the price.
Compare Holtek Semiconductor Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 339 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−50% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)76.6× · Pricier than median
P/B3.42× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.29× · Pricier than median
P/FCF1.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA62.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)43· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)17· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)16· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 29.14 TWD versus a price of 58.20 TWD, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6202?
Our model-based fair value for Holtek Semiconductor Inc is 29.14 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 58.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 6202?
Holtek Semiconductor Inc has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 29.14 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 23.56 TWD, optimistic scenario 34.72 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Holtek Semiconductor Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 29.14 TWD, about −50% upside versus a price of 58.20 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 23.56 TWD, optimistic scenario 34.72 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
Holtek Semiconductor Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.1B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Holtek Semiconductor Inc pay a dividend?
Holtek Semiconductor Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.79% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Holtek Semiconductor Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +28.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6202 use?
Our models discount Holtek Semiconductor Inc at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Holtek Semiconductor Inc that is +28.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Holtek Semiconductor Inc grew -11.4 % a year. The price currently implies +28.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Holtek Semiconductor Inc (+28.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.97 %: that much free cash flow Holtek Semiconductor Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Holtek Semiconductor Inc it is 29.14 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 58.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Holtek Semiconductor Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6202 trades above its calculated fair value: price 58.20 TWD, fair value 29.14 TWD, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6202?
No. The price is what the market pays today (58.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (29.14 TWD). For Holtek Semiconductor Inc the two are 29.06 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Holtek Semiconductor Inc worth?
The market values Holtek Semiconductor Inc at about 13.4B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 58.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 29.14 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6202?
Our models span a range for Holtek Semiconductor Inc: cautious scenario 23.56 TWD, base 29.14 TWD, optimistic 34.72 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 58.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6202?
Holtek Semiconductor Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 76.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 29.14 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.4, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 62.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
Balance-sheet figures for Holtek Semiconductor Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.2%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6202 from its 52-week high?
Holtek Semiconductor Inc trades at 58.20 TWD, about 21% below its 52-week high of 73.70 TWD and 61% above the low of 36.20 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 29.14 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Holtek Semiconductor Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, SK hynix Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Holtek Semiconductor Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 58.20 TWD, calculated fair value 29.14 TWD (−50%), Quality Score 71/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6202 calculated?
We run Holtek Semiconductor Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 29.14 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Holtek Semiconductor Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 58.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 29.14 TWD, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Holtek Semiconductor Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (34.72 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Key figures of Holtek Semiconductor Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
The market capitalisation of Holtek Semiconductor Inc is 13.4B TWD (≈ $420M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Holtek Semiconductor Inc is 4.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
Earnings per share at Holtek Semiconductor Inc are 0.7600 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 76.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
The dividend yield of Holtek Semiconductor Inc is 0.8% (payout 60.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
The net margin of Holtek Semiconductor Inc is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Holtek Semiconductor Inc is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Holtek Semiconductor Inc is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
The operating margin of Holtek Semiconductor Inc is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
Revenue at Holtek Semiconductor Inc is growing +8.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202)?
Earnings per share at Holtek Semiconductor Inc are growing −25.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Holtek Semiconductor Inc (6202) hold?
Holtek Semiconductor Inc holds more cash than debt, 785M TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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