Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Montage Technology Co Ltd stock HK$99.48, price HK$215, upside -53.7%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
8‑month range HK$153.70 – HK$500.02 · fair‑value band HK$57.60 – HK$132.02 · the HK$214.80 price screens above the HK$99.48 fair value. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Montage Technology Co., Ltd., an integrated circuit (IC) design company, provides IC-based solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure in the People's Republic of China.
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The company provides components for memory modules, such as multiplexed rank registering clock driver, multiplexed rank data buffer, registering clock driver, data buffer, clock driver, SPD EEPROM with hub, temperature sensor, and power management IC, as well as server and client memory module products.
It also offers DDR5 PMIC, SPD Hub, and TS; PCIe retimers; CXL Memory eXpander Controller, a Type 3 Compute Express Link DRAM memory controller; clock chips; and Jintide server platform. Montage Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809) currently trades at HK$214.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$99.48, 53.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$98.47 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$214.80 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$15.59, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$57.60 (bear) to HK$132.02 (bull), the price of HK$214.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Montage Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +27.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$263B (≈ $33.5B) Large · P/E ratio 76.0 · P/S ratio 31.1 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.66 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 41.0% · Return on equity 17.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 85 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −54%, 6809 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$7.77 to HK$99.17). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
BearHK$57.60Fair Value HK$99.48BullHK$132.02
Price HK$214.80 · Upside -53.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.8671 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+46.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +18.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.4% vs 36.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 34%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 67% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+50.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+42.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +48.4% a year for the price and +40.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Montage Technology Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 347 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−52.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.7% · Above median
Return on assets15.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)49.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)36.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)32.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)76.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B16.76× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)35.19× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow124.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA91.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 95
PAST (return on equity)71· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Montage Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6809
Frequently asked questions
Is Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$99.48 versus a price of HK$214.80, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6809?
Our model-based fair value for Montage Technology Co Ltd is HK$99.48 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$214.80.
What is the quality score of 6809?
Montage Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$99.48 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$57.60, optimistic scenario HK$132.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Montage Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$99.48, about −54% upside versus a price of HK$214.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$57.60, optimistic scenario HK$132.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
Montage Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Montage Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Montage Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.27% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Montage Technology Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +50.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.3 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6809 use?
Our models discount Montage Technology Co Ltd at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.62, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Montage Technology Co Ltd that is +50.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Montage Technology Co Ltd grew +25.3 % a year. The price currently implies +50.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +16.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Montage Technology Co Ltd (+50.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.78 %: that much free cash flow Montage Technology Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Montage Technology Co Ltd it is HK$99.48 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of HK$214.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Montage Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, 6809 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$214.80, fair value HK$99.48, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6809?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$214.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$99.48). For Montage Technology Co Ltd the two are HK$115.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Montage Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values Montage Technology Co Ltd at about HK$263B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is HK$214.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$99.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6809?
Our models span a range for Montage Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$57.60, base HK$99.48, optimistic HK$132.02 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price HK$214.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6809?
Montage Technology Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 76.0 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$99.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 16.8, P/S 35.2, EV/EBITDA 91.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
Balance-sheet figures for Montage Technology Co Ltd (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 17.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Montage Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Montage Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price HK$214.80, calculated fair value HK$99.48 (−54%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6809 calculated?
We run Montage Technology Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$99.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Montage Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was HK$214.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$99.48, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Montage Technology Co Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$132.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (HK$57.60 to HK$132.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Montage Technology Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
The market capitalisation of Montage Technology Co Ltd is HK$263B (≈ $33.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Montage Technology Co Ltd is 31.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
Earnings per share at Montage Technology Co Ltd are HK$1.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 76.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
The dividend yield of Montage Technology Co Ltd is 0.3% (payout 35.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
The net margin of Montage Technology Co Ltd is 41.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Montage Technology Co Ltd is 17.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Montage Technology Co Ltd is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
The operating margin of Montage Technology Co Ltd is 36.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
Revenue at Montage Technology Co Ltd is growing +32.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?
Earnings per share at Montage Technology Co Ltd are growing +69.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809) hold?
Montage Technology Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 8.4B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026