Data-driven stock valuation

Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Montage Technology Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

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Technology · HK · Market cap HK$475B (≈ $60.5B) · ISIN CNE100003MN7

At a glance

MT Montage Technology Co Ltd 6809 · HK

PriceHK$279.00

Fair ValueHK$28.35

Upside−89.8% ⚠

Quality80/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A strong business, but trading 884% above our fair value of HK$28.35.

As of Aug 20, 2026, the fair value of Montage Technology Co Ltd is HK$28.35 per share against a price of HK$279.00, so the fair value sits 90% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +25.3 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 44.9% net margin

✓generates free cash flow

!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)

✓Wide moat 79/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on dividend: 3 out of 100

Evidence: Low Range HK$22.46 to HK$34.23

Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from HK$29.66 to HK$28.35 (−4.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +3.6% over the past month.

This is the short version. In the app for Montage Technology Co Ltd:

26 models, one by oneBear HK$22.46 to bull HK$34.23 5-year chart + forecastprice, fair value, trend, scenarios Quality 80/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

Watch Montage Technology Co Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$34.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (7 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

7‑month range HK$153.82 – HK$500.41 · fair‑value band HK$22.46 – HK$34.23 · the HK$279.00 price screens above the HK$28.35 fair value. As of Aug 20, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809) currently trades at HK$279.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$28.35, implying the stock looks roughly 884.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$60.27 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$279.00 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$5.09, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Montage Technology Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$5.7B at a net margin of 44.9%. Revenue grew 19.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$8.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Scenario range: HK$22.46 (bear) to HK$34.23 (bull), the price of HK$279.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −63% fair-value upside, at −90%, 6809 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$5.09 to HK$64.89). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF best evidence HK$23.21 HK$34.37 HK$70.87 74

Growth DCF HK$22.16 HK$40.79 HK$72.06 72

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$21.85 HK$35.07 HK$61.01 70

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF best evidence HK$23.21 HK$34.37 HK$70.87 74

Owner Earnings HK$25.38 HK$52.77 HK$112.83 68

5Y Revenue Exit HK$17.75 HK$26.78 HK$45.67 68

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$21.85 HK$35.07 HK$61.01 70

5Y P/E Exit HK$30.52 HK$64.89 HK$112.23 65

10Y Revenue Exit HK$19.09 HK$35.35 HK$45.49 64

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$22.61 HK$44.38 HK$82.37 62

10Y P/E Exit HK$29.08 HK$63.49 HK$121.25 58

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$8.70 HK$60.70 HK$85.18 63

Lynch FV HK$28.61 HK$40.87 HK$53.13 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$28.61 HK$40.87 HK$53.13 57

EPV HK$14.51 HK$16.19 HK$17.69 70

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$3.69 HK$8.06 HK$13.55 65

DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.69 HK$6.60 HK$8.40 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$26.88 HK$35.84 HK$44.80 63

P/S Multiple HK$12.89 HK$17.18 HK$21.48 58

P/B Multiple HK$16.32 HK$21.76 HK$27.20 55

EV/EBIT HK$24.10 HK$30.47 HK$36.84 63

EV/EBITDA HK$20.64 HK$25.86 HK$31.08 64

EV/Revenue HK$14.65 HK$18.79 HK$22.93 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$3.80 HK$5.09 HK$7.60 51

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$22.16 HK$40.79 HK$72.06 72

Rev-Margin DCF HK$18.83 HK$29.93 HK$52.69 68

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$8.88 HK$11.81 HK$44.35 64

ROIC Compounder HK$17.67 HK$25.10 HK$35.48 69

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$42.19 HK$60.27 HK$78.35 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$60.27) versus Asset-Based (HK$5.09). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 151.7 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 62.2 P/E × margin

Dividend yield 0.1%

Net margin 41.0% FY2025

Return on equity 15.0% TTM

Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% avg 5y

More key figures

Profitability

Operating margin 46.2% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$5.7B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +19.5% 3y avg +13.1%

EPS growth (YoY) +52.3%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$1.7B FY2025

Net cash HK$8.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 80/100

Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 63

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 72

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 79

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 100

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 65

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 11

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 63

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 66

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 79

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Montage Technology Co., Ltd., an integrated circuit (IC) design company, provides IC-based solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Montage Technology Co., Ltd., an integrated circuit (IC) design company, provides IC-based solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure in the People's Republic of China. The company provides components for memory modules, such as multiplexed rank registering clock driver, multiplexed rank data buffer, registering clock driver, data buffer, clock driver, SPD EEPROM with hub, temperature sensor, and power management IC, as well as server and client memory module products. It also offers DDR5 PMIC, SPD Hub, and TS; PCIe retimers; CXL Memory eXpander Controller, a Type 3 Compute Express Link DRAM memory controller; clock chips; and Jintide server platform. Montage Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Montage Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +27.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$5.3B

Latest YoY

+46.1%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+13.1%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+25.3%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+22.1%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

≈ +18.7%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+18.6%

Dividend yield0.1%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 18.4% vs 10Y 36.4%, flattening

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40.3% (2020) → 34.0% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop65% (2023) · in HKD

⚠ Final year 2025 sits 67% above trend (one-off), rate on operating basis

Revenue +20.0%/yr

FY21 2.6B CNY

FY22 3.7B CNY

FY23 2.3B CNY

FY24 3.6B CNY

FY25 5.3B CNY

Net income +27.3%/yr

FY21 829M CNY

FY22 1.3B CNY

FY23 451M CNY

FY24 1.4B CNY

FY25 2.2B CNY

6809 screens 884% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →

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Montage Technology Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$28.35 −884%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6809" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Montage Technology Co Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$28.35</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−884%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Montage Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6809

Peer Group

Semiconductors · 326 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation

Quality Score 80 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −89% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%

Return on assets 8% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 45% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 46% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 20% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 151.7× · Priciest 25%

P/B 36.72× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 83.36× · Priciest 25%

P/FCF 34.9× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Montage Technology Co Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+41.6 % per year

Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+25.3 % p.a.

Sector median revenue growth+8.2 %

FCF yield on price0.55 %

Discount rate (WACC) in the models11.0 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 0

FUTURE98 · sector 66

PAST60 · sector 25

HEALTH0 · sector 96

DIVIDEND3 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA	$230.36	$98.98	−57%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM	$428.91	$296.10	−31%
Broadcom Inc AVGO	$357.90	$118.27	−67%
SK hynix Inc 000660	1,647,000 KRW	1,481,291 KRW	−10%
Micron Technology, Inc MU	$1,017	$148.38	−85%
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD	$477.57	$55.02	−88%
Intel Corporation INTC	$95.80	$35.41	−63%
Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN	$258.44	$78.54	−70%
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation 688981	¥124.12	¥16.55	−87%
QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM	$168.74	$147.20	−13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$28.35 versus a price of HK$279.00, about −90% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 6809?

Our model-based fair value for Montage Technology Co Ltd is HK$28.35 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$279.00.

What is the quality score of 6809?

Montage Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$28.35 (as of Aug 20, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$22.46, optimistic scenario HK$34.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Montage Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$28.35, about −90% upside versus a price of HK$279.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$22.46, optimistic scenario HK$34.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?

Montage Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$5.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 6809?

The net profit margin of Montage Technology Co Ltd is about 44.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 44.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Montage Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?

Montage Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).

What growth is priced into Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Montage Technology Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +41.6 % per year for ten years (discount rate 11.0 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.3 % per year. As of Aug 20, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6809 use?

Our models discount Montage Technology Co Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.51, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

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