Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd ¥47.99, price ¥122, upside -60.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥51.30 – ¥287.00 · fair‑value band ¥23.08 – ¥58.92 · the ¥122.23 price screens above the ¥47.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., a fabless semiconductor company, develops and sells cutting-edge and low-power wireless communication chipsets in China and internationally. The company offers wireless SoCs; Wi-Fi and Bluetooth modules; and development boards, as well as software components.
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Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., a fabless semiconductor company, develops and sells cutting-edge and low-power wireless communication chipsets in China and internationally. The company offers wireless SoCs; Wi-Fi and Bluetooth modules; and development boards, as well as software components. It also provides production testing equipment; device connectivity, low power, smart display, audio, face detection, voice assistance, device drivers, and USB solutions; SDKs; and cloud and support solutions. Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018) currently trades at ¥122.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥47.99, implying the stock looks roughly 154.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥86.81 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥122.23 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥8.18, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥23.08 (bear) to ¥58.92 (bull), the price of ¥122.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was 498M CNY in FY2025, compounding +25.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 27.1B CNY (≈ $4.0B) · P/E ratio 51.1 · P/S ratio 9.93 · EPS (TTM) ¥2.39 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 19.4% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −61%, 688018 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥23.08Fair Value ¥47.99Bull ¥58.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.54 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+36.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+36.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22% vs 68%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 20%
2025 sits 265% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 335 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−61% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)51.1× · Pricier than median
P/B6.07× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)9.66× · Pricier than median
P/FCF163.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA45.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)64· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688018
Frequently asked questions
Is Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥47.99 versus a price of ¥122.23, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688018?
Our model-based fair value for Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd is ¥47.99 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥122.23.
What is the quality score of 688018?
Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥47.99 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥23.08, optimistic scenario ¥58.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥47.99, about −61% upside versus a price of ¥122.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥23.08, optimistic scenario ¥58.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688018 use?
Our models discount Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd grew +25.3 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.13 %: that much free cash flow Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd it is ¥47.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥122.23. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 688018 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥122.23, fair value ¥47.99, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688018?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥122.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥47.99). For Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd the two are ¥74.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd worth?
The market values Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd at about 27.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥122.23; our models calculate a fair value of ¥47.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688018?
Our models span a range for Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥23.08, base ¥47.99, optimistic ¥58.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥122.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688018?
Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥47.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.1, P/S 9.7, EV/EBITDA 45.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
Balance-sheet figures for Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688018 from its 52-week high?
Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd trades at ¥122.23, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥216.86 and 33% above the low of ¥91.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥47.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, SK hynix Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥122.23, calculated fair value ¥47.99 (−61%), Quality Score 52/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688018 calculated?
We run Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥47.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥122.23. Our model-based fair value is ¥47.99, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥58.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥23.08 to ¥58.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
The market capitalisation of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd is 27.1B CNY (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd is 9.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
Earnings per share at Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd are ¥2.39 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 51.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
The dividend yield of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd is 0.3% (payout 14.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
The net margin of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd is 19.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
The operating margin of Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
Revenue at Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd is growing +16.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018)?
Earnings per share at Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd are growing +34.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd (688018) hold?
Espressif Systems Shanghai Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 994M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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