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Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co (688018) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · CN · Market cap 27.9B CNY

ES Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co 688018 · SHG
Price¥112.06
Fair Value¥36.11
Upside-67.8%
Quality51/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 20.3% net margin
generates free cash flow
0.32% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/13)
Wide moat 67/100
Evidence: High Range ¥24.89 – ¥53.60 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥42.48 to ¥36.11 (−15.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.3% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 68% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥53.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (¥24.89 to ¥53.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥287.00 ¥51.30 Fair Value ¥36.11 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥51.30 – ¥287.00 · fair‑value band ¥24.89 – ¥53.60 · the ¥112.06 price screens above the ¥36.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co (688018) currently trades at ¥112.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥36.11, implying the stock looks roughly 67.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co generated revenue of 2.7B CNY at a net margin of 20.3%. Revenue grew 16.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 994M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥24.89 (bear case) to ¥53.60 (bull case); at ¥112.06, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -68%, 688018 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥17.20 ¥19.94 ¥41.36 76
Growth DCF ¥6.04 ¥7.47 ¥10.37 72
Gordon GGM ¥2.62 ¥5.44 ¥8.63 70
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥6.14 ¥7.16 ¥10.40 38
Owner Earnings ¥7.34 ¥11.14 ¥19.10 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥20.36 ¥36.28 ¥69.97 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥22.75 ¥41.13 ¥77.33 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥28.92 ¥66.87 ¥119.91 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥15.68 ¥39.03 ¥56.96 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥18.30 ¥44.19 ¥92.16 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥22.80 ¥57.47 ¥117.51 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥14.44 ¥100.73 ¥141.35 54
Lynch FV ¥43.94 ¥62.77 ¥81.59 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥43.94 ¥62.77 ¥81.59 46
EPV ¥22.93 ¥26.02 ¥28.72 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.62 ¥5.44 ¥8.63 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.62 ¥4.58 ¥5.71 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥31.86 ¥42.48 ¥53.10 63
P/S Multiple ¥20.52 ¥27.36 ¥34.20 58
P/B Multiple ¥27.08 ¥36.11 ¥45.14 55
EV/EBIT ¥33.59 ¥43.34 ¥53.08 53
EV/EBITDA ¥28.07 ¥35.97 ¥43.87 54
EV/Revenue ¥23.53 ¥31.73 ¥39.94 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥9.51 ¥12.74 ¥19.02 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥6.04 ¥7.47 ¥10.37 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥17.20 ¥19.94 ¥41.36 76
ROIC Compounder ¥27.33 ¥36.32 ¥44.25 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥53.19 ¥75.99 ¥98.79 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥75.99) versus Dividend Discount (¥4.58). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.7B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.2%
Net margin 20.3%
Return on equity 15.9%
Free cash flow 24.7M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 49.8
More key figures
Operating margin 18.9%
EPS (TTM) ¥2.39
Dividend yield 0.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +34.0%
Net cash 994M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 48
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., a fabless semiconductor company, develops and sells cutting-edge and low-power wireless communication chipsets in China and internationally. The company offers wireless SoCs; Wi-Fi and Bluetooth modules; and development boards, as well as software components.

Full company description

Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., a fabless semiconductor company, develops and sells cutting-edge and low-power wireless communication chipsets in China and internationally. The company offers wireless SoCs; Wi-Fi and Bluetooth modules; and development boards, as well as software components. It also provides production testing equipment; device connectivity, low power, smart display, audio, face detection, voice assistance, device drivers, and USB solutions; SDKs; and cloud and support solutions. Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co reported revenue of ¥2.6B in FY2025 versus ¥1.4B in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥498M in FY2025, compounding +25.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.6B CNY
Latest YoY
+27.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+26.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+25.3%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y)
+40.2%
Revenue +16.6%/yr
FY21 ¥1.4B
FY22 ¥1.3B
FY23 ¥1.4B
FY24 ¥2.0B
FY25 ¥2.6B
Net income +25.9%/yr
FY21 ¥198M
FY22 ¥97.3M
FY23 ¥136M
FY24 ¥339M
FY25 ¥498M

688018 screens 68% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688018

Peer Group

Semiconductors · 319 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −68% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 49.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 6.26× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 10.51× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 167.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 50.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 81 · sector 60
PAST 64 · sector 24
HEALTH 0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 6 · sector 22

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA $211.80 $96.91 -54%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM $398.37 $207.49 -48%
Broadcom Inc 1AVGO €367.75 €121.25 -67%
Micron Technology, Inc 1MU €784.90 €185.67 -76%
SK hynix Inc 000660 2,082,000 KRW 1,109,311 KRW -47%
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD €425.20 €56.33 -87%
Intel Corporation INTC C$68.40 C$9.82 -86%
Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN $311.46 $59.75 -81%
MediaTek Inc 2454 3,740 TWD 1,163 TWD -69%
SK Square Co 402340 1,212,000 KRW 868,000 KRW -28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co (688018) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥36.11 versus a price of ¥112.06, about −68% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688018?
Our model-based fair value for Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co is ¥36.11 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥112.06.
What is the quality score of 688018?
Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co (688018)?
Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 688018?
The net profit margin of Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co is about 20.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 20.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co pay a dividend?
Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.32% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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