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UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of UCloud Technology Co Ltd stock ¥8.29, price ¥29.75, that is 72.1% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology CN · ISIN CNE100003RS5

UT UCloud Technology Co Ltd logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

UCloud Technology Co Ltd

688158 · SHG
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 72% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +40% vs. a year ago.
Quality 54/100
Fair value ¥8.29 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.1 %/yr in CNY)
Loss-making · -1.4% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/12)
Narrow moat 20/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥52.76 ¥9.23 Fair Value ¥8.29 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥9.23 – ¥52.76 · fair‑value band ¥6.45 – ¥10.13 · the ¥29.75 price screens above the ¥8.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

UCloud Technology Co., Ltd. researches and develops cloud computing technology platforms. It develops IaaS, PaaS, big data circulation platform, and AI service platforms, as well as offers cloud products, including public, private, hybrid, and dedicated clouds.

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It also provides U Chronicles, which strictly abides by all national laws and regulations and actively participates in the formulation, and promotion of industry standards; U Culture, which Uses cloud computing to help dreamers advance human progress.

The company operates in Southeast Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Africa. It serves government, AI big data models, industrial internet, telecommunications, education, healthcare, retail, finance, and internet. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158) currently trades at ¥29.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.29, 72% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: ¥6.45 (bear) to ¥10.13 (bull), the price of ¥29.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

UCloud Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −12.5%/yr. Reported net income was −73.6M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 13.6B CNY (≈ $2.0B) Mid · P/S ratio 6.47 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0700 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin −4.3% · Return on equity −1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 20 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −72%, 688158 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥6.45 Fair Value ¥8.29 Bull ¥10.13
Price ¥29.75 · Downside -72.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0606 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA ¥6.45 ¥8.29 ¥10.13 67
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.1200 ¥0.1800 ¥0.2200 55
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥6.45 ¥8.29 ¥10.13 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.1200 ¥0.1800 ¥0.2200 55

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 14
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 83
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 18
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 89
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 40
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 26
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 41
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 77
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−13.6% (2020) → −4.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

688158 screens overvalued: fair value 72% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 408 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −72.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −1.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 4.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 39.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.08× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 5.62× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 6.58× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 53.8× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 60
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)1 · sector 26

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $521.13 $599.70 +15% vs 688158
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $128.10 $135.93 +6% vs 688158
Block, Inc XYZ $85.72 $76.43 −11% vs 688158
Oracle Corporation ORCL $128.38 $111.97 −13% vs 688158
NetApp, Inc NTAP $183.12 $156.80 −14% vs 688158
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $462.12 $288.23 −38% vs 688158
Zscaler, Inc ZS $193.80 $101.45 −48% vs 688158
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $172.40 $42.20 −76% vs 688158
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $229.06 $37.97 −83% vs 688158
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $334.47 $39.54 −88% vs 688158

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UCloud Technology Co Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UCloud Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688158

Frequently asked questions

Is UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.29 versus a price of ¥29.75, about 72% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688158?
Our model-based fair value for UCloud Technology Co Ltd is ¥8.29 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥29.75.
What is the quality score of 688158?
UCloud Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.29 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.45, optimistic scenario ¥10.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UCloud Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.29, about 72% lower versus a price of ¥29.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.45, optimistic scenario ¥10.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
UCloud Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does UCloud Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
UCloud Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.03% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
UCloud Technology Co Ltd has a dividend yield of 0.0%.
What is the intrinsic value of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UCloud Technology Co Ltd it is ¥8.29 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of ¥29.75. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is UCloud Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 688158 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥29.75, fair value ¥8.29, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688158?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥29.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.29). For UCloud Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥21.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UCloud Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values UCloud Technology Co Ltd at about 13.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is ¥29.75; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688158?
Our models span a range for UCloud Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥6.45, base ¥8.29, optimistic ¥10.13 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price ¥29.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
Balance-sheet figures for UCloud Technology Co Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −1.2%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688158 from its 52-week high?
UCloud Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥29.75, about 44% below its 52-week high of ¥52.76 and 30% above the low of ¥22.81 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UCloud Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UCloud Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price ¥29.75, calculated fair value ¥8.29 (−72%), Quality Score 54/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688158 calculated?
We run UCloud Technology Co Ltd through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥8.29 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. UCloud Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was ¥29.75. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.29, about 72% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UCloud Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥10.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of UCloud Technology Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
The market capitalisation of UCloud Technology Co Ltd is 13.6B CNY (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UCloud Technology Co Ltd is 6.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
Earnings per share at UCloud Technology Co Ltd are ¥0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
The dividend yield of UCloud Technology Co Ltd is 0.0% (payout 12.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
The net margin of UCloud Technology Co Ltd is −4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UCloud Technology Co Ltd is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UCloud Technology Co Ltd is −7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
The operating margin of UCloud Technology Co Ltd is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
Revenue at UCloud Technology Co Ltd is growing +39.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158)?
Earnings per share at UCloud Technology Co Ltd are growing −87.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does UCloud Technology Co Ltd (688158) generate?
The free cash flow of UCloud Technology Co Ltd is −460M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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