UCloud Technology Co (688158) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 16.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥6.24 to ¥8.29 (+32.9%) since Aug 11, 2026. Share price +0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥10.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.23 – ¥52.76 · fair‑value band ¥6.45 – ¥10.13 · the ¥34.40 price screens above the ¥8.29 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
UCloud Technology Co (688158) currently trades at ¥34.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.29, implying the stock looks roughly 75.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, UCloud Technology Co generated revenue of 1.8B CNY at a net margin of -1.5%. Revenue grew 16.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.1%. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥6.45 (bear case) to ¥10.13 (bull case); at ¥34.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -76%, 688158 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥8.29) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.1000). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
UCloud Technology Co., Ltd. researches and develops cloud computing technology platforms. It develops IaaS, PaaS, big data circulation platform, and AI service platforms, as well as offers cloud products, including public, private, hybrid, and dedicated clouds.
Full company description
UCloud Technology Co., Ltd. researches and develops cloud computing technology platforms. It develops IaaS, PaaS, big data circulation platform, and AI service platforms, as well as offers cloud products, including public, private, hybrid, and dedicated clouds. It also provides U Chronicles, which strictly abides by all national laws and regulations and actively participates in the formulation, and promotion of industry standards; U Culture, which Uses cloud computing to help dreamers advance human progress. The company operates in Southeast Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Africa. It serves government, AI big data models, industrial internet, telecommunications, education, healthcare, retail, finance, and internet. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
UCloud Technology Co reported revenue of ¥1.7B in FY2025 versus ¥2.9B in FY2021, a compound −12.5%/yr. Reported net income was −¥73.6M in FY2025.
688158 screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $506.06 | $365.74 | -28% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$7.22 | C$2.34 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.84 | $61.46 | -62% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €358.00 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | -36% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥67.70 | ¥30.89 | -54% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,679 | ₹6,897 | -41% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.58 | ¥1.05 | -89% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,610 | ₹241.68 | -85% |
| PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk GOTO | 50.00 IDR | 20.41 IDR | -59% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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