Novoray Corporation (688300) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 35.3B CNY (≈ $5.3B) · ISIN CNE100003PN0
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 11 days ago
Share price +56.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 860% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥27.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (¥10.67 to ¥27.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥16.86 – ¥272.54 · fair‑value band ¥10.67 – ¥27.43 · the ¥186.24 price screens above the ¥19.41 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.
Analysis
Novoray Corporation (688300) currently trades at ¥186.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥19.41, implying the stock looks roughly 89.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Novoray Corporation generated revenue of 1.2B CNY at a net margin of 25.7%. Revenue grew 23.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.7%. Net debt stands at 9.6M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥10.67 (bear case) to ¥27.43 (bull case); at ¥186.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 346% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -90%, 688300 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥30.73) versus Asset-Based (¥4.53). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Novoray Corporation provides industrial powder materials in China and internationally. The company offers crystalline silica powder, fused silica powder, soft composite silica powder, round corner crystalline silica powder, spherical silica powder, spherical aluminum oxide powder, sub-micron spherical silica powder, and acicular powder.
Full company description
Novoray Corporation provides industrial powder materials in China and internationally. The company offers crystalline silica powder, fused silica powder, soft composite silica powder, round corner crystalline silica powder, spherical silica powder, spherical aluminum oxide powder, sub-micron spherical silica powder, and acicular powder. It serves electronic materials, electrical insulating materials, ceramics, precision casting, paints and coatings, silicon rubber, functional rubber, plastics, and building materials manufacturing industries. Novoray Corporation was founded in 2002 and is based in Lianyungang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Novoray Corporation reported revenue of ¥1.1B in FY2025 versus ¥625M in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥293M in FY2025, compounding +14.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +24.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −18.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
688300 screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 713 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $490.33 | $222.03 | -55% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $348.66 | $143.38 | -59% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $290.60 | $96.18 | -67% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $306.66 | $122.14 | -60% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,274 | CHF 1,498 | -54% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥75.06 | ¥68.03 | -9% |
| 500820 500820 | ₹2,757 | ₹557.43 | -80% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 456.40 | kr 169.99 | -63% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,630 | ₹696.23 | -74% |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $114.42 | $71.31 | -38% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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