Novoray Corporation (688300) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Novoray Corporation ¥38.82, price ¥136, upside -71.6%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥18.62 – ¥272.54 · fair‑value band ¥20.20 – ¥48.54 · the ¥136.49 price screens above the ¥38.82 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Novoray Corporation provides industrial powder materials in China and internationally. The company offers crystalline silica powder, fused silica powder, soft composite silica powder, round corner crystalline silica powder, spherical silica powder, spherical aluminum oxide powder, sub-micron spherical silica powder, and acicular powder.
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Novoray Corporation provides industrial powder materials in China and internationally. The company offers crystalline silica powder, fused silica powder, soft composite silica powder, round corner crystalline silica powder, spherical silica powder, spherical aluminum oxide powder, sub-micron spherical silica powder, and acicular powder. It serves electronic materials, electrical insulating materials, ceramics, precision casting, paints and coatings, silicon rubber, functional rubber, plastics, and building materials manufacturing industries. Novoray Corporation was founded in 2002 and is based in Lianyungang, China.
Stock analysis
Novoray Corporation (688300) currently trades at ¥136.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥38.82, 71.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥30.73 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥136.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥4.53, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥20.20 (bear) to ¥48.54 (bull), the price of ¥136.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Novoray Corporation reported revenue of 1.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 625M CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was 293M CNY in FY2025, compounding +14.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 40.5B CNY (≈ $6.1B) · P/E ratio 110.1 · P/S ratio 28.9 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.24 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 26.2% · Return on equity 18.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 158% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −72%, 688300 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥4.53 to ¥57.47). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥20.20Fair Value ¥38.82Bull ¥48.54
Price ¥136.49 · Upside -71.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.5778 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+31.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Per share before 2023divided by the spin-off factor 1.49
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.31.5% vs 18.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 30%
2025 sits 67% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+62.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +60.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 715 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−71.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)24.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)24.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)110.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B24.81× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)33.06× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF257.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)98· sector 58
PAST (return on equity)73· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)7· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Novoray Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688300
Frequently asked questions
Is Novoray Corporation (688300) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥38.82 versus a price of ¥136.49, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688300?
Our model-based fair value for Novoray Corporation is ¥38.82 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥136.49.
What is the quality score of 688300?
Novoray Corporation has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novoray Corporation (688300)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥38.82 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥20.20, optimistic scenario ¥48.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novoray Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥38.82, about −72% upside versus a price of ¥136.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥20.20, optimistic scenario ¥48.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
Novoray Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Novoray Corporation pay a dividend?
Novoray Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Novoray Corporation (688300)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Novoray Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +62.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688300 use?
Our models discount Novoray Corporation at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Novoray Corporation that is +62.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Novoray Corporation (688300) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Novoray Corporation grew +22.5 % a year. The price currently implies +62.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Novoray Corporation (688300) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Novoray Corporation (+62.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.48 %: that much free cash flow Novoray Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novoray Corporation it is ¥38.82 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ¥136.49. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Novoray Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 688300 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥136.49, fair value ¥38.82, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688300?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥136.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥38.82). For Novoray Corporation the two are ¥97.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novoray Corporation worth?
The market values Novoray Corporation at about 40.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥136.49; our models calculate a fair value of ¥38.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688300?
Our models span a range for Novoray Corporation: cautious scenario ¥20.20, base ¥38.82, optimistic ¥48.54 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ¥136.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688300?
Novoray Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 110.1 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥38.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 24.8, P/S 33.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novoray Corporation (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 18.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688300 from its 52-week high?
Novoray Corporation trades at ¥136.49, about 50% below its 52-week high of ¥272.54 and 158% above the low of ¥52.86 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥38.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Novoray Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novoray Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ¥136.49, calculated fair value ¥38.82 (−72%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688300 calculated?
We run Novoray Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥38.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Novoray Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was ¥136.49. Our model-based fair value is ¥38.82, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novoray Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥48.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥20.20 to ¥48.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Novoray Corporation (688300) come from?
Earnings per share at Novoray Corporation grew +10.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin +7.1 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Novoray Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
The market capitalisation of Novoray Corporation is 40.5B CNY (≈ $6.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novoray Corporation is 28.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
Earnings per share at Novoray Corporation are ¥1.24 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 110.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
The dividend yield of Novoray Corporation is 0.4% (payout 40.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
The net margin of Novoray Corporation is 26.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novoray Corporation is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novoray Corporation is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novoray Corporation (688300)?
The operating margin of Novoray Corporation is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novoray Corporation (688300)?
Revenue at Novoray Corporation is growing +19.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Novoray Corporation (688300) carry?
The net debt of Novoray Corporation is 9.6M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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