Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co (688388) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 30.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Share price −16.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 80% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (¥3.91 to ¥7.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.24 – ¥125.32 · fair‑value band ¥3.91 – ¥7.26 · the ¥28.05 price screens above the ¥5.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co (688388) currently trades at ¥28.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.59, implying the stock looks roughly 80.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co generated revenue of 11.1B CNY at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 73.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.0%. Net debt stands at 2.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.91 (bear case) to ¥7.26 (bull case); at ¥28.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -80%, 688388 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥10.49) versus Multiples (¥2.21). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of electrolytic copper foils in China. The company offers electronic circuit copper foil, lithium battery copper foil, and high-performance precision copper wire, as well as standard copper foil.
Full company description
Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.,Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of electrolytic copper foils in China. The company offers electronic circuit copper foil, lithium battery copper foil, and high-performance precision copper wire, as well as standard copper foil. Its products are primarily used in lithium-ion batteries, copper clad laminates, and printed circuit boards, as well as new energy vehicle power batteries, energy storage batteries, solid-state batteries, AI computing power, humanoid robots, multilayer circuit boards, and 3C digital electronic products. Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Meizhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co reported revenue of ¥9.6B in FY2025 versus ¥2.8B in FY2021, a compound +36.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥59.1M in FY2025, compounding −42.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +39.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −17.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
688388 screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 61 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $175.66 | $86.74 | -51% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $61.52 | $22.81 | -63% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$34.86 | C$18.67 | -46% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥39.03 | ¥35.19 | -10% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.79 | ¥3.06 | -47% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$28.58 | C$21.79 | -24% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥16.66 | ¥7.00 | -58% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$13.06 | A$7.28 | -44% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥14.32 | ¥9.12 | -36% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$14.75 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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