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Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co HK$3.40, price HK$2.30, upside +47.8%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Defensive · HK

PE Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co

6911 · HK

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value HK$3.40 · Undervalued (+48%)
!Quality 35/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −11.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -41.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$9.97 HK$1.78 Fair Value HK$3.40 Dec 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

33‑month range HK$1.78 – HK$9.97 · fair‑value band HK$2.24 – HK$4.24 · the HK$2.30 price screens below the HK$3.40 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co., Ltd. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of Pu'er tea products in People's Republic of China. The company offers its products under the 1966, Tea Mama, and Iland Tea brand names.

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Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co., Ltd. engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of Pu'er tea products in People's Republic of China. The company offers its products under the 1966, Tea Mama, and Iland Tea brand names. It sells its products through self-operated stores, distributor-operated stores, tea beverage manufacturers, and hypermarket chains, as well as operates online stores. The company formerly known as Lancang Ancient Tea Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co., Ltd. in February 2018. Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co., Ltd. was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Pu'er, China.

Stock analysis

Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911) currently trades at HK$2.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.40, implying the stock looks roughly 32.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$3.22 per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the HK$2.30 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.5000, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$2.24 (bear) to HK$4.24 (bull), the price of HK$2.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co reported revenue of 219M CNY in FY2026 versus 559M CNY in FY2022, a compound −20.9%/yr. Reported net income was −91.0M CNY in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap HK$443M (≈ $56.4M) · P/S ratio 2.02 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.2300 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin −41.6% · Return on equity −14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.6% · Operating margin −49.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 48%, 6911 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$2.24 Fair Value HK$3.40 Bull HK$4.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM HK$0.4700 HK$0.5000 HK$0.5400 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.4700 HK$0.5400 HK$0.6300 67
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.40 HK$3.22 HK$4.80 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.4700 HK$0.5000 HK$0.5400 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.4700 HK$0.5400 HK$0.6300 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.40 HK$3.22 HK$4.80 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 34
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−39.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
36.0% (2021) → −31.8% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +37% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −42% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −50% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −40% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.13× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.09× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.26× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)97 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)40 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM $82.15 $38.02 −54%
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥41.86 ¥114.67 +174%
Bunge Global SA BG $111.48 $56.19 −50%
Tyson Foods, Inc TSN $51.36 $37.28 −27%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥14.90 ¥12.08 −19%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 196.70 kr 280.64 +43%
SalMar ASA SALM kr 561.00 kr 171.05 −70%
Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 ¥163.80 ¥311.94 +90%
United Plantations Berhad 2089 33.20 MYR 36.52 MYR +10%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 22.10 THB 55.71 THB +152%

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Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co · Fair Value
HK$3.40 +32%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6911

Frequently asked questions

Is Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.40 versus a price of HK$2.30, about +48% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6911?
Our model-based fair value for Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is HK$3.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.30.
What is the quality score of 6911?
Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.24, optimistic scenario HK$4.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.40, about +48% upside versus a price of HK$2.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.24, optimistic scenario HK$4.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 219M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co pay a dividend?
Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co it is HK$3.40 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$2.30. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6911 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.30, fair value HK$3.40, a gap of about +48% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6911?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.40). For Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co the two are HK$1.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co worth?
The market values Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co at about HK$443M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.30; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6911?
Our models span a range for Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co: cautious scenario HK$2.24, base HK$3.40, optimistic HK$4.24 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$2.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −14.0%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6911 from its 52-week high?
Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co trades at HK$2.30, about 30% below its 52-week high of HK$3.30 and 29% above the low of HK$1.78 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$2.30, calculated fair value HK$3.40 (+48%), Quality Score 35/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6911 calculated?
We run Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$2.30. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.40, about +48% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.24 to HK$4.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co

How large is the market capitalisation of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
The market capitalisation of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is HK$443M (≈ $56.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is 2.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
Earnings per share at Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co are HK$−0.2300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
The dividend yield of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is 2.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
The net margin of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is −41.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is −14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is −0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
The operating margin of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is −49.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
Revenue at Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is growing −40.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911)?
Earnings per share at Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co are growing −85.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911) generate?
The free cash flow of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is −96.8M CNY (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co (6911) carry?
The net debt of Pu'er Lancang Ancient Tea Co is 369M CNY (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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