S.F. Holding Co Ltd (6936) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$161B (≈ $20.5B)

What is S.F. Holding Co Ltd really worth?

SF S.F. Holding Co Ltd 6936 · HK

PriceHK$31.64

Fair ValueHK$54.06

Upside+70.9%

Quality63/100

A solid business, trading 41% below our fair value of HK$54.06.

As of Aug 22, 2026, the fair value of S.F. Holding Co Ltd is HK$54.06 per share against a price of HK$31.64, so the fair value sits 71% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +14.9 %/yr)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (11/15)

Risks

!Thin margins · 3.7% net margin

!Narrow moat 34/100

!Weak on valuation: 29 out of 100

For context

·2.81% dividend yield

Evidence: High Range HK$40.54 – HK$67.57

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from HK$53.96 to HK$54.06 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −4.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$40.54). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (21 months)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

21‑month range HK$28.98 – HK$45.36 · fair‑value band HK$40.54 – HK$67.57 · the HK$31.64 price screens below the HK$54.06 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

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Analysis

S.F. Holding Co Ltd (6936) currently trades at HK$31.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$54.06, implying the stock looks roughly 41.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$101.14 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$31.64 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$13.22, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, S.F. Holding Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$313B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.1%. Net debt stands at HK$13.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$40.54 (bear case) to HK$67.57 (bull case); at HK$31.64, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 71%, 6936 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.6215 per share, which is 1.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

EPV HK$23.55 HK$27.36 HK$30.69 74

FCF DCF HK$61.05 HK$95.68 HK$205.93 73

Growth DCF HK$57.46 HK$113.39 HK$205.03 72

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$61.05 HK$95.68 HK$205.93 73

Owner Earnings HK$56.78 HK$128.35 HK$278.59 68

5Y Revenue Exit HK$39.62 HK$65.47 HK$119.36 67

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$63.58 HK$113.92 HK$212.72 69

5Y P/E Exit HK$43.49 HK$90.81 HK$154.36 66

10Y Revenue Exit HK$45.29 HK$92.56 HK$120.72 64

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$64.03 HK$144.15 HK$284.61 62

10Y P/E Exit HK$49.37 HK$100.89 HK$183.39 59

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$15.02 HK$104.77 HK$147.03 61

Lynch FV HK$54.13 HK$77.33 HK$100.52 59

PEG = 1.0 HK$54.13 HK$77.33 HK$100.52 55

EPV HK$23.55 HK$27.36 HK$30.69 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$10.35 HK$21.52 HK$34.15 64

DDM Multi-Stage HK$10.35 HK$18.15 HK$22.59 64

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$34.80 HK$46.40 HK$57.99 63

P/S Multiple HK$28.17 HK$37.56 HK$46.95 58

P/B Multiple HK$28.17 HK$37.56 HK$46.95 55

EV/EBIT HK$39.49 HK$52.42 HK$65.36 66

EV/EBITDA HK$62.08 HK$82.55 HK$103.01 67

EV/Revenue HK$28.38 HK$40.25 HK$52.12 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$9.87 HK$13.22 HK$19.74 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$57.46 HK$113.39 HK$205.03 72

Rev-Margin DCF HK$43.52 HK$74.84 HK$140.59 67

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$17.95 HK$20.57 HK$36.80 71

ROIC Compounder HK$28.44 HK$39.71 HK$50.42 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$70.80 HK$101.14 HK$131.48 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$101.14) versus Asset-Based (HK$13.22). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 11.7 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 0.42 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$1.80 price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7

Dividend yield 2.8% payout 49.4%

Net margin 3.6% FY2025

Return on equity 11.1% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% avg 5y

Operating margin 5.1% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$313B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +6.1% 3y avg +4.8%

EPS growth (YoY) +11.1%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$18.0B FY2025

Net debt HK$13.2B FY2025 · ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 50

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 56

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 57

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 65

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 90

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 88

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 28

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 10

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 69

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Express and Large Items, Same-City Instant Delivery, and Supply Chain and International. It offers time-sensitive and economy express deliveries, as well as international, bulk, cold chain, and pharmaceutical shipping; same-city instant and last-mile delivery services; international express delivery, international freight forwarding, agency, and supply chain services, as well as warehousing and distribution services. The company also provides technology services, including smart express delivery, smart life, smart business, and smart supply chain software, as well as smart hardware; and supply chain solutions for automotive, technology, industrial equipment, consumer goods, retail food and catering, life sciences and pharmaceuticals, finance and insurance, and government and enterprise services sectors. In addition, it is involved in air cargo and mail transportation; technical maintenance and development services; business information and enterprise management consulting; value-added telecommunications services; management of e-commerce industrial parks; driving services; factoring business; financing and wealth management; retail; leasing; property management; scientific research and technical services; postal services; and asset, capital, and investment management. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

S.F. Holding Co Ltd reported revenue of 308B CNY in FY2025 versus 207B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was 11.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +27.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$308B

Latest YoY

+8.4%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+4.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+14.9%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+51.6%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+13.7% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+10.9%

Dividend yield2.8%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 10.9% vs 10Y 22.9%, flattening

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6.6% (2020) → 5.0% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop55% (2010) · in HKD

Revenue +10.4%/yr

FY21 207B CNY

FY22 267B CNY

FY23 258B CNY

FY24 284B CNY

FY25 308B CNY

Net income +27.0%/yr

FY21 4.3B CNY

FY22 6.2B CNY

FY23 8.2B CNY

FY24 10.2B CNY

FY25 11.1B CNY

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +13.1 % p.a.

Revenue per share +17.8 %

of which total revenue +26.0 % · buybacks/dilution −6.5 %

EBIT margin −0.4 %

Tax rate +0.0 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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S.F. Holding Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$54.06 +41%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "S.F. Holding Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6936.HK

Peer Group

Integrated Freight & Logistics · 206 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −3% · Below median

Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median

Return on assets 4% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median

Revenue growth 6% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median

Debt / equity 0.18× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.7× · Cheaper than median

P/B 1.62× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 0.52× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 1.1× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median

PEG 1.02× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE29 · sector 43

FUTURE31 · sector 8

PAST44 · sector 26

HEALTH91 · sector 94

DIVIDEND56 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS	$105.33	$103.34	−2%
FedEx Corporation FDX	$330.88	$347.68	+5%
Deutsche Post AG DHL	€56.14	€53.18	−5%
DSV A/S DSV	kr 1,358	kr 712.57	−48%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN	CHF 211.30	CHF 147.92	−30%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT	$256.48	$133.80	−48%
S.F. Holding 002352	¥32.96	¥48.64	+48%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW	$150.39	$86.56	−42%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD	$190.97	$115.95	−39%
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc ZTO	$21.50	$28.62	+33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is S.F. Holding Co Ltd (6936) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$54.06 versus a price of HK$31.64, about +71% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 6936?

Our model-based fair value for S.F. Holding Co Ltd is HK$54.06 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$31.64.

What is the quality score of 6936?

S.F. Holding Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for S.F. Holding Co Ltd (6936)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$54.06 (as of Aug 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$40.54, optimistic scenario HK$67.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the S.F. Holding Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$54.06, about +71% upside versus a price of HK$31.64 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$40.54, optimistic scenario HK$67.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of S.F. Holding Co Ltd (6936)?

S.F. Holding Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$313B (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 6936?

The net profit margin of S.F. Holding Co Ltd is about 3.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does S.F. Holding Co Ltd pay a dividend?

S.F. Holding Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.81% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).

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