Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$41.3M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +30.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2380). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3000 – HK$17.00 · fair‑value band HK$0.1445 – HK$0.2380 · the HK$0.8500 price screens above the HK$0.1870 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196) currently trades at HK$0.8500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1870, implying the stock looks roughly 78.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Great Water Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$131M at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 153.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$26.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1445 (bear case) to HK$0.2380 (bull case); at HK$0.8500, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -78%, 8196 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$0.9200) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.0900). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Futian Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wastewater and drinking water treatment engineering services in Mainland China and Vietnam. It operates through six segments: EPC Projects, Equipment Projects, Service Concession Arrangement, Advertising, Property Leasing, and Others.
Full company description
Futian Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wastewater and drinking water treatment engineering services in Mainland China and Vietnam. It operates through six segments: EPC Projects, Equipment Projects, Service Concession Arrangement, Advertising, Property Leasing, and Others. The company engages in the design, procurement, and construction of sludge or wastewater treatment facilities; procurement of materials, equipment, and machinery, as well as installation, testing and commissioning, and provision of technical consulting services; and construction, operation, and maintenance of sludge treatment and station, as well as restoration of the infrastructure. It is also involved in processing services for advertising materials and the placement of advertisements on various media platforms; leasing of own investment properties and sub-leasing of commercial properties leased from third-party landlords to independent tenants; and operation and maintenance services for other construction projects. In addition, the company engages in online advertising and related services for online games; design, construction, and sale of equipment for environmental protection projects; and investment, operation, and project management of commercial real estate projects. Further, it is involved in sewage disposal; soil remediation; solid and hazardous waste treatment and disposal; sludge drying reduction; smoke business; and other related environmental services. The company was formerly known as China TianYF Holdings Group Limited and changed its name to Futian Holdings Limited in March 2024. Futian Holdings Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Great Water Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$131M in FY2025 versus HK$118M in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was HK$583K in FY2025.
of which total revenue −3.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +4.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
8196 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →
Peer Group
Waste Management · 168 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waste Management, Inc WM | $226.32 | $128.02 | -43% |
| Republic Services, Inc RSG | $215.08 | $120.63 | -44% |
| Waste Connections, Inc WCN | C$230.52 | C$78.67 | -66% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €34.47 | €23.26 | -33% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $316.65 | $154.01 | -51% |
| GFL Environmental Inc GFL | C$57.56 | C$44.27 | -23% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.75 | ¥5.27 | -22% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥15.68 | ¥20.95 | +34% |
| China Everbright Environment Group 0257 | HK$5.00 | HK$8.96 | +79% |
| Beijing GeoEnviron Engineering & Technology, Inc 603588 | ¥14.10 | ¥9.35 | -34% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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