Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Great Water Holdings Ltd HK$0.19, price HK$0.79, upside -76.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Great Water Holdings Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3000 – HK$17.00 · fair‑value band HK$0.1445 – HK$0.2380 · the HK$0.7850 price screens above the HK$0.1870 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow Great Water Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Great Water Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Futian Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wastewater and drinking water treatment engineering services in Mainland China and Vietnam. It operates through six segments: EPC Projects, Equipment Projects, Service Concession Arrangement, Advertising, Property Leasing, and Others.
Show more
Futian Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wastewater and drinking water treatment engineering services in Mainland China and Vietnam. It operates through six segments: EPC Projects, Equipment Projects, Service Concession Arrangement, Advertising, Property Leasing, and Others. The company engages in the design, procurement, and construction of sludge or wastewater treatment facilities; procurement of materials, equipment, and machinery, as well as installation, testing and commissioning, and provision of technical consulting services; and construction, operation, and maintenance of sludge treatment and station, as well as restoration of the infrastructure. It is also involved in processing services for advertising materials and the placement of advertisements on various media platforms; leasing of own investment properties and sub-leasing of commercial properties leased from third-party landlords to independent tenants; and operation and maintenance services for other construction projects. In addition, the company engages in online advertising and related services for online games; design, construction, and sale of equipment for environmental protection projects; and investment, operation, and project management of commercial real estate projects. Further, it is involved in sewage disposal; soil remediation; solid and hazardous waste treatment and disposal; sludge drying reduction; smoke business; and other related environmental services. The company was formerly known as China TianYF Holdings Group Limited and changed its name to Futian Holdings Limited in March 2024. Futian Holdings Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196) currently trades at HK$0.7850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1870, 76.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$1.08 per share, and 7 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$0.7850 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1000, and 5 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1445 (bear) to HK$0.2380 (bull), the price of HK$0.7850 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Great Water Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 131M CNY in FY2025 versus 118M CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was 583K CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$41.3M (≈ $5.3M) · P/E ratio 32.5 · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600 · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Operating margin 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −76%, 8196 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1445Fair Value HK$0.1870Bull HK$0.2380
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0450 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+185.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−138% → 3%
Compare Great Water Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 162 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−76.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth153.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)32.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.40× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.27× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)5· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Great Water Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8196
Frequently asked questions
Is Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1870 versus a price of HK$0.7850, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8196?
Our model-based fair value for Great Water Holdings Ltd is HK$0.1870 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.7850.
What is the quality score of 8196?
Great Water Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1870 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1445, optimistic scenario HK$0.2380. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Great Water Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1870, about −76% upside versus a price of HK$0.7850 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1445, optimistic scenario HK$0.2380. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
Great Water Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 131M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Great Water Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.1870 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.7850. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Great Water Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8196 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.7850, fair value HK$0.1870, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8196?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.7850); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1870). For Great Water Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.5980 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Great Water Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Great Water Holdings Ltd at about HK$41.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.7850; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1870 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8196?
Our models span a range for Great Water Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1445, base HK$0.1870, optimistic HK$0.2380 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.7850). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8196?
Great Water Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.1870 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
Balance-sheet figures for Great Water Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.3%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8196 from its 52-week high?
Great Water Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.7850, about 15% below its 52-week high of HK$0.9200 and 43% above the low of HK$0.5500 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1870 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Great Water Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Great Water Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.7850, calculated fair value HK$0.1870 (−76%), Quality Score 49/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8196 calculated?
We run Great Water Holdings Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1870, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Great Water Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.7850. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1870, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Great Water Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2380). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196) come from?
Earnings per share at Great Water Holdings Ltd grew −22.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.3 %, EBIT margin −13.2 %, tax rate −2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Great Water Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
The market capitalisation of Great Water Holdings Ltd is HK$41.3M (≈ $5.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Great Water Holdings Ltd is 0.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
Earnings per share at Great Water Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
The net margin of Great Water Holdings Ltd is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Great Water Holdings Ltd is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Great Water Holdings Ltd is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
The operating margin of Great Water Holdings Ltd is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
Revenue at Great Water Holdings Ltd is growing +153% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196)?
Earnings per share at Great Water Holdings Ltd are growing +62.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196) generate?
The free cash flow of Great Water Holdings Ltd is −25.9M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Great Water Holdings Ltd (8196) hold?
Great Water Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 26.1M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Great Water Holdings Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Great Water Holdings Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
