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Shui-Mu International Co Ltd (8443) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · TW · Market cap 762M TWD (≈ $24.1M) · ISIN TW0008443003

What is Shui-Mu International Co Ltd really worth?

SM Shui-Mu International Co Ltd 8443 · TW
Price11.15 TWD
Fair Value12.35 TWD
Upside+10.8%
Quality55/100

A solid business, trading 10% below our fair value of 12.35 TWD.

As of Aug 24, 2026, the fair value of Shui-Mu International Co Ltd is 12.35 TWD per share against a price of 11.15 TWD, so the fair value sits 11% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -11.1% net margin
!Trails peers (3/10)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range 8.53 TWD – 16.17 TWD

Fair value as of: Aug 24, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 13 days ago

Share price −2.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (8.53 TWD to 16.17 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

13.67 TWD 9.97 TWD Fair Value 12.35 TWD Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 9.97 TWD – 13.67 TWD · fair‑value band 8.53 TWD – 16.17 TWD · the 11.15 TWD price screens below the 12.35 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Shui-Mu International Co Ltd (8443) currently trades at 11.15 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 12.35 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 9.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 20.27 TWD per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the 11.15 TWD price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 1.68 TWD, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shui-Mu International Co Ltd generated revenue of 1.1B TWD at a net margin of −11.1%. Revenue declined 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −17.3%. Net debt stands at 196M TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 8.53 TWD (bear case) to 16.17 TWD (bull case); at 11.15 TWD, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 11%, 8443 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence 16.12 TWD 20.06 TWD 26.67 TWD 80
Growth DCF 16.54 TWD 20.27 TWD 26.06 TWD 77
Owner Earnings 11.08 TWD 13.50 TWD 17.54 TWD 75
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence 16.12 TWD 20.06 TWD 26.67 TWD 80
Owner Earnings 11.08 TWD 13.50 TWD 17.54 TWD 75
5Y Revenue Exit 16.07 TWD 21.74 TWD 29.97 TWD 71
5Y EBITDA Exit 14.34 TWD 18.75 TWD 24.58 TWD 74
10Y Revenue Exit 15.70 TWD 19.63 TWD 23.80 TWD 66
10Y EBITDA Exit 15.05 TWD 17.94 TWD 20.92 TWD 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 1.55 TWD 1.68 TWD 1.86 TWD 69
DDM Multi-Stage 1.55 TWD 1.85 TWD 2.23 TWD 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA 14.60 TWD 18.42 TWD 22.24 TWD 64
EV/Revenue 17.19 TWD 23.22 TWD 29.24 TWD 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 4.99 TWD 6.69 TWD 9.98 TWD 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 16.54 TWD 20.27 TWD 26.06 TWD 77
Rev-Margin DCF 16.07 TWD 22.08 TWD 29.47 TWD 71

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (20.27 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (1.68 TWD). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.69 TTM
EPS (TTM) −1.46 TWD
Dividend yield 1.8%
Net margin −8.7% FY2025
Return on equity −17.3% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) −6.0% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin −11.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 1.1B TWD TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −5.0% 3y avg −3.4%
EPS growth (YoY) −92.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 107M TWD FY2025
Net debt 196M TWD FY2025 · ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

SHUI-MU International Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and retail of shoes and bags in Taiwan. The company sells socks and leather products. It also offers repair services. It operates approximately 107 stores. The company was founded in 1941 and is based in Taipei, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shui-Mu International Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.1B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.1B TWD in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was −97.3M TWD in FY2025.

Growth Quality 23/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.1B TWD
Latest YoY
−1.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.6%
EBIT margin (trend) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−15.0% (2020) → −9.8% (2025)
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +0.8%/yr
FY21 1.1B TWD
FY22 1.2B TWD
FY23 1.2B TWD
FY24 1.1B TWD
FY25 1.1B TWD
Net income
FY21 −261M TWD
FY22 −211M TWD
FY23 17.0M TWD
FY24 −48.5M TWD
FY25 −97.3M TWD

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shui-Mu International Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8443.TW

Peer Group

Footwear & Accessories · 93 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Below median
Fair Value upside +11% · Above median
Return on assets −5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −11% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −12% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth −5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.8% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE48 · sector 6
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST0 · sector 22
HEALTH0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND35 · sector 48

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NIKE, Inc NKE $38.44 $35.63 −7%
Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK $87.76 $125.16 +43%
On Holding ONON $31.03 $17.79 −43%
Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 ¥12.61 ¥13.03 +3%
Birkenstock Holding BIRK $33.95 $44.93 +32%
Crocs, Inc CROX $122.23 $203.65 +67%
Huali Industrial Group 300979 ¥34.24 ¥51.36 +50%
PUMA SE PUM €25.63 €10.57 −59%
Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO $47.70 $11.69 −75%
Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 HK$13.65 HK$31.67 +132%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shui-Mu International Co Ltd (8443) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 12.35 TWD versus a price of 11.15 TWD, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8443?
Our model-based fair value for Shui-Mu International Co Ltd is 12.35 TWD (as of Aug 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 11.15 TWD.
What is the quality score of 8443?
Shui-Mu International Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shui-Mu International Co Ltd (8443)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 12.35 TWD (as of Aug 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.53 TWD, optimistic scenario 16.17 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shui-Mu International Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 12.35 TWD, about +11% upside versus a price of 11.15 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 8.53 TWD, optimistic scenario 16.17 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shui-Mu International Co Ltd (8443)?
Shui-Mu International Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B TWD (latest available figure, as of Aug 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 8443?
The net profit margin of Shui-Mu International Co Ltd is about −11.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shui-Mu International Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shui-Mu International Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.75% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 24, 2026).
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