Lumina Group (8470) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$204M
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Share price +3.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 194% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.4200). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1020 – HK$0.4350 · fair‑value band HK$0.4200 – HK$0.7200 · the HK$0.1940 price screens below the HK$0.5700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
Lumina Group (8470) currently trades at HK$0.1940, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5700, implying the stock looks roughly 193.8% undervalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lumina Group generated revenue of HK$128M at a net margin of 18.1%. Revenue grew 12.7% year over year. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.4. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4200 (bear case) to HK$0.7200 (bull case); at HK$0.1940, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 194%, 8470 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.5700) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.1500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lumina Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides fire safety services in Hong Kong. Its services include design, supply, and installation of fire safety systems, such as evacuation and electrical fire alarm systems, water and gas suppression systems, and portable fire equipment for newly built and existing buildings; and repair and maintenance …
Full company description
Lumina Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides fire safety services in Hong Kong. Its services include design, supply, and installation of fire safety systems, such as evacuation and electrical fire alarm systems, water and gas suppression systems, and portable fire equipment for newly built and existing buildings; and repair and maintenance services on fire safety systems. The company serves construction contractors, property owners and tenants, property managers, government-related organizations, and non-governmental organizations. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Tai Kok Tsui, Hong Kong. Lumina Group Limited is a subsidiary of Foxfire Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2016 – FY2020 · reported fiscal years
Lumina Group reported revenue of HK$110M in FY2020 versus HK$74.8M in FY2016, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$17.2M in FY2020, compounding −1.5%/yr from FY2016.
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Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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