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Lumina Group (8470) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$204M

LG Lumina Group 8470 · HK
PriceHK$0.1940
Fair ValueHK$0.5700
Upside+193.8%
Quality50/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 18.1% net margin
Ranks above peers (7/11)
Wide moat 74/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.4200 – HK$0.7200 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price +3.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 194% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.4200). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$0.4350 HK$0.1020 Fair Value HK$0.5700 Dec 2019 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1020 – HK$0.4350 · fair‑value band HK$0.4200 – HK$0.7200 · the HK$0.1940 price screens below the HK$0.5700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Lumina Group (8470) currently trades at HK$0.1940, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5700, implying the stock looks roughly 193.8% undervalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Lumina Group generated revenue of HK$128M at a net margin of 18.1%. Revenue grew 12.7% year over year. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.4. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4200 (bear case) to HK$0.7200 (bull case); at HK$0.1940, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 194%, 8470 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.3900 HK$0.5200 HK$0.6800 72
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.3500 HK$0.5000 HK$0.6600 68
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.4200 HK$0.6100 HK$0.8600 67
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.4000 HK$0.5400 HK$0.7400 38
Owner Earnings HK$0.4000 HK$0.5400 HK$0.7400 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4200 HK$0.6200 HK$0.8800 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.4300 HK$0.6300 HK$0.8900 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.4700 HK$0.7200 HK$1.00 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4000 HK$0.5600 HK$0.8100 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.4100 HK$0.5700 HK$0.8100 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.4300 HK$0.6300 HK$0.8900 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1900 HK$0.8500 HK$1.16 54
Lynch FV HK$0.2200 HK$0.3100 HK$0.4100 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.2200 HK$0.3100 HK$0.4100 46
EPV HK$0.3300 HK$0.3500 HK$0.3700 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.4300 HK$0.5700 HK$0.7200 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.3400 HK$0.4600 HK$0.5700 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.3600 HK$0.4900 HK$0.6100 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.6000 HK$0.7500 HK$0.9000 53
EV/EBITDA HK$0.4800 HK$0.6000 HK$0.7200 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.4500 HK$0.5800 HK$0.7100 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1100 HK$0.1500 HK$0.2300 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.3900 HK$0.5200 HK$0.6800 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.4200 HK$0.6100 HK$0.8600 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.1900 HK$0.2200 HK$0.3000 61
ROIC Compounder HK$0.3500 HK$0.3900 HK$0.4400 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.3500 HK$0.5000 HK$0.6600 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.5700) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.1500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$128M
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.7%
Net margin 18.1%
P/E ratio 6.4
Operating margin 24.2%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0386
More key figures
EPS growth (YoY) +19.6%

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Lumina Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides fire safety services in Hong Kong. Its services include design, supply, and installation of fire safety systems, such as evacuation and electrical fire alarm systems, water and gas suppression systems, and portable fire equipment for newly built and existing buildings; and repair and maintenance …

Full company description

Lumina Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides fire safety services in Hong Kong. Its services include design, supply, and installation of fire safety systems, such as evacuation and electrical fire alarm systems, water and gas suppression systems, and portable fire equipment for newly built and existing buildings; and repair and maintenance services on fire safety systems. The company serves construction contractors, property owners and tenants, property managers, government-related organizations, and non-governmental organizations. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Tai Kok Tsui, Hong Kong. Lumina Group Limited is a subsidiary of Foxfire Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2016 – FY2020 · reported fiscal years

Lumina Group reported revenue of HK$110M in FY2020 versus HK$74.8M in FY2016, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$17.2M in FY2020, compounding −1.5%/yr from FY2016.

Growth Quality 81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2020)
HK$110M
Latest YoY
−8.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+6.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+19.0%
Revenue +10.1%/yr
FY16 HK$74.8M
FY17 HK$91.5M
FY18 HK$102M
FY19 HK$121M
FY20 HK$110M
Net income −1.5%/yr
FY16 HK$18.2M
FY17 HK$12.6M
FY18 HK$11.4M
FY19 HK$24.1M
FY20 HK$17.2M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lumina Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8470

Peer Group

Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +194% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 13% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.48× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.60× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 3.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 15
FUTURE 64 · sector 39
PAST 0 · sector 20
HEALTH 0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 50

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).

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ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB kr 348.40 kr 269.97 -23%
Verisure plc VSURE €10.26 €12.40 +21%
Allegion plc ALLE $137.24 $127.80 -7%
Securitas AB SECUB kr 162.10 kr 186.34 +15%
Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥16.57 ¥23.58 +42%
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $169.00 $118.51 -30%
ADT Inc ADT $7.06 $17.10 +142%
The Brink's Company BCO $104.24 $101.84 -2%
Brady Corporation BRC $90.16 $73.43 -19%
The GEO Group GEO $29.46 $32.36 +10%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Lumina Group (8470) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5700 versus a price of HK$0.1940, about +194% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8470?
Our model-based fair value for Lumina Group is HK$0.5700 (as of Aug 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.1940.
What is the quality score of 8470?
Lumina Group has a Quality Score of 50/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Lumina Group (8470)?
Lumina Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$128M (latest available figure, as of Aug 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 8470?
The net profit margin of Lumina Group is about 18.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 18.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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