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LUMINA GROUP (8470) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what LUMINA GROUP is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · HK

LG Thin data Sep 13, 2026

LUMINA GROUP

8470 · HK

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value HK$0.6200 · Strongly undervalued (+150%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +19.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 18.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Ranks above peers (8/11)
✓Wide moat 74/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$0.4350 HK$0.1020 Fair Value HK$0.6200 Feb 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1020 – HK$0.4350 · fair‑value band HK$0.4300 – HK$0.8000 · the HK$0.2480 price screens below the HK$0.6200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Lumina Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides fire safety services in Hong Kong.

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Lumina Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides fire safety services in Hong Kong. Its services include design, supply, and installation of fire safety systems, such as evacuation and electrical fire alarm systems, water and gas suppression systems, and portable fire equipment for newly built and existing buildings; and repair and maintenance services on fire safety systems. The company serves construction contractors, property owners and tenants, property managers, government-related organizations, and non-governmental organizations. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Tai Kok Tsui, Hong Kong. Lumina Group Limited is a subsidiary of Foxfire Limited.

Stock analysis

LUMINA GROUP (8470) currently trades at HK$0.2480, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6200, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$0.6200 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.2480 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1500, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.4300 (bear) to HK$0.8000 (bull), the price of HK$0.2480 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

LUMINA GROUP reported revenue of HK$110M in FY2020 versus HK$74.8M in FY2016, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$17.2M in FY2020, compounding −1.5%/yr from FY2016.

Key figures

Market cap HK$204M (≈ $26.0M) · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 1.00 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0386 · Net margin 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 38.3% · Operating margin 24.2% · Revenue (TTM) HK$128M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 150%, 8470 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.4300 Fair Value HK$0.6200 Bull HK$0.8000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$0.4000 HK$0.5400 HK$0.7400 79
Growth DCF HK$0.3900 HK$0.5200 HK$0.6800 76
Owner Earnings HK$0.4000 HK$0.5400 HK$0.7400 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.4000 HK$0.5400 HK$0.7400 79
Owner Earnings HK$0.4000 HK$0.5400 HK$0.7400 74
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4200 HK$0.6200 HK$0.8800 70
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.5000 HK$0.7800 HK$1.12 72
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.5600 HK$0.9000 HK$1.29 67
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.4000 HK$0.5600 HK$0.8100 64
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.4500 HK$0.6600 HK$0.9800 65
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.4800 HK$0.7400 HK$1.10 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1900 HK$0.8500 HK$1.16 64
Lynch FV HK$0.2200 HK$0.3100 HK$0.4100 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.2200 HK$0.3100 HK$0.4100 57
EPV HK$0.3300 HK$0.3500 HK$0.3700 70
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.6000 HK$0.8000 HK$1.00 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.3600 HK$0.4900 HK$0.6100 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.3600 HK$0.4900 HK$0.6100 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.7500 HK$0.9600 HK$1.16 63
EV/EBITDA HK$0.6200 HK$0.7800 HK$0.9400 64
EV/Revenue HK$0.4500 HK$0.5800 HK$0.7100 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1100 HK$0.1500 HK$0.2300 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.3900 HK$0.5200 HK$0.6800 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.4200 HK$0.6100 HK$0.8600 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.1900 HK$0.2200 HK$0.3000 71
ROIC Compounder HK$0.3500 HK$0.3900 HK$0.4400 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.4300 HK$0.6200 HK$0.8000 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
31.6% (2015) → 18.6% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

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Compare LUMINA GROUP with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 109 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside +170% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 13% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.48× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.60× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 3.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)64 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 48

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

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Verisure plc VSURE €8.95 €24.48 +174%
Allegion plc ALLE $152.81 $127.80 −16%
Securitas AB SECUB kr 153.60 kr 178.19 +16%
Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥15.69 ¥31.47 +101%
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $178.70 $116.42 −35%
ADT Inc ADT $6.99 $16.68 +139%
The Brink's Company BCO $106.56 $108.25 +2%
Brady Corporation BRC $85.22 $72.32 −15%
The GEO Group GEO $32.14 $17.28 −46%

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LUMINA GROUP · Fair Value
HK$0.6200 +60%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LUMINA GROUP Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8470

Frequently asked questions

Is LUMINA GROUP (8470) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6200 versus a price of HK$0.2480, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8470?
Our model-based fair value for LUMINA GROUP is HK$0.6200 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2480.
What is the quality score of 8470?
LUMINA GROUP has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.6200 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.4300, optimistic scenario HK$0.8000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LUMINA GROUP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.6200, about +150% upside versus a price of HK$0.2480 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.4300, optimistic scenario HK$0.8000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
LUMINA GROUP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$128M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LUMINA GROUP it is HK$0.6200 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2480. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LUMINA GROUP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 8470 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2480, fair value HK$0.6200, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8470?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2480); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.6200). For LUMINA GROUP the two are HK$0.3720 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LUMINA GROUP worth?
The market values LUMINA GROUP at about HK$204M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2480; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.6200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8470?
Our models span a range for LUMINA GROUP: cautious scenario HK$0.4300, base HK$0.6200, optimistic HK$0.8000 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$0.2480). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8470?
LUMINA GROUP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.6200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
How far is 8470 from its 52-week high?
LUMINA GROUP trades at HK$0.2480, about 17% below its 52-week high of HK$0.3000 and 58% above the low of HK$0.1570 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.6200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LUMINA GROUP?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ASSA ABLOY AB, Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Securitas AB, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LUMINA GROUP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$0.2480, calculated fair value HK$0.6200 (+150%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8470 calculated?
We run LUMINA GROUP through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.6200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. LUMINA GROUP currently trades 150 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$0.2480. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.6200, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LUMINA GROUP right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.4300). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.4300 to HK$0.8000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of LUMINA GROUP

How large is the market capitalisation of LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
The market capitalisation of LUMINA GROUP is HK$204M (≈ $26.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LUMINA GROUP is 1.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
Earnings per share at LUMINA GROUP are HK$0.0386 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
The net margin of LUMINA GROUP is 15.6% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LUMINA GROUP is 38.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
The operating margin of LUMINA GROUP is 24.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
Revenue at LUMINA GROUP is growing +12.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LUMINA GROUP (8470)?
Earnings per share at LUMINA GROUP are growing +19.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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