Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. stock SAR 0.83, price SAR 1.71, upside -51.3%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range 0.8950 SAR – 3.43 SAR · fair‑value band 0.6205 SAR – 1.04 SAR · the 1.71 SAR price screens above the 0.8330 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. produces and sells bottled water in Saudi Arabia. It sells its products under the Halwa brand. Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. was founded in 1982 and is based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) currently trades at 1.71 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.8330 SAR, 51.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 2.02 SAR per share, and 7 of the 21 models we run sit above the 1.71 SAR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.4800 SAR, and 14 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.6205 SAR (bear) to 1.04 SAR (bull), the price of 1.71 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. reported revenue of 71.0M SAR in FY2025 versus 67.6M SAR in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was 4.4M SAR in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 149M SAR (≈ $39.8M) Micro · P/E ratio 57.0 · P/S ratio 2.10 · EPS (TTM) 0.0300 SAR · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −51%, 9532 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear0.6205 SARFair Value 0.8330 SARBull1.04 SAR
Price 1.71 SAR · Upside -51.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0248 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF2.41 SAR3.28 SAR4.99 SAR80
Growth DCF2.51 SAR3.36 SAR4.90 SAR79
5Y EBITDA Exit1.58 SAR2.10 SAR2.82 SAR76
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF2.41 SAR3.28 SAR4.99 SAR80
5Y Revenue Exit1.27 SAR1.58 SAR2.05 SAR74
5Y EBITDA Exit1.58 SAR2.10 SAR2.82 SAR76
5Y P/E Exit1.30 SAR1.63 SAR2.05 SAR72
10Y Revenue Exit1.68 SAR1.99 SAR2.32 SAR68
10Y EBITDA Exit1.88 SAR2.33 SAR2.80 SAR70
10Y P/E Exit1.71 SAR2.02 SAR2.32 SAR65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd0.3200 SAR0.4800 SAR0.5700 SAR67
EPV0.5900 SAR0.6900 SAR0.7800 SAR74
Multiples
P/E Multiple0.7300 SAR0.9800 SAR1.22 SAR63
P/S Multiple0.5900 SAR0.7900 SAR0.9900 SAR58
P/B Multiple4.10 SAR5.47 SAR6.84 SAR55
EV/EBIT0.4500 SAR0.7500 SAR1.04 SAR64
EV/EBITDA0.8100 SAR1.23 SAR1.64 SAR66
EV/Revenue0.2000 SAR0.4700 SAR0.7400 SAR50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)0.5000 SAR0.6700 SAR0.9900 SAR54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF2.51 SAR3.36 SAR4.90 SAR79
Rev-Margin DCF1.27 SAR1.64 SAR2.13 SAR74
Economic Profit
Residual Income0.7800 SAR0.7900 SAR0.8300 SAR71
ROIC Compounder0.5900 SAR0.6900 SAR0.7800 SAR72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E0.5200 SAR0.7400 SAR0.9600 SAR67
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−44.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−44.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.1% a year for the price.
Compare Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−51.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)4.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)57.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.58× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)2.10× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow7.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)1· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 55
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9532
Frequently asked questions
Is Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.8330 SAR versus a price of 1.71 SAR, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9532?
Our model-based fair value for Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 0.8330 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.71 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9532?
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.8330 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.6205 SAR, optimistic scenario 1.04 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.8330 SAR, about −51% upside versus a price of 1.71 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.6205 SAR, optimistic scenario 1.04 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 71.1M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. would have to grow free cash flow by -6.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.2 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9532 use?
Our models discount Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. that is -6.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. grew -0.2 % a year. The price currently implies -6.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (-6.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.87 %: that much free cash flow Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. it is 0.8330 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 1.71 SAR. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 9532 trades above its calculated fair value: price 1.71 SAR, fair value 0.8330 SAR, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9532?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.71 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.8330 SAR). For Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. the two are 0.8770 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. worth?
The market values Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. at about 149M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 1.71 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 0.8330 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9532?
Our models span a range for Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co.: cautious scenario 0.6205 SAR, base 0.8330 SAR, optimistic 1.04 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 1.71 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9532?
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 57.0 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.8330 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 13.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9532 from its 52-week high?
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. trades at 1.71 SAR, about 36% below its 52-week high of 2.68 SAR and 5% above the low of 1.63 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.8330 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 1.71 SAR, calculated fair value 0.8330 SAR (−51%), Quality Score 45/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9532 calculated?
We run Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.8330 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 1.71 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 0.8330 SAR, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.04 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The market capitalisation of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 149M SAR (≈ $39.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 2.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Earnings per share at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. are 0.0300 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 57.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The net margin of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 4.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The operating margin of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Revenue at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is growing +0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Earnings per share at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. are growing −59.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) carry?
The net debt of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 41.1M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 29, 2026