Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range 0.8950 SAR – 3.43 SAR · fair‑value band 0.5015 SAR – 0.8840 SAR · the 1.88 SAR price screens above the 0.6715 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. produces and sells bottled water in Saudi Arabia. It sells its products under the Halwa brand. Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. was founded in 1982 and is based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) currently trades at 1.88 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.6715 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 180.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1.56 SAR per share, and 2 of the 21 models we run sit above the 1.88 SAR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.4800 SAR, and 19 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.5015 SAR (bear) to 0.8840 SAR (bull), the price of 1.88 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. reported revenue of 71.0M SAR in FY2025 versus 67.6M SAR in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was 4.4M SAR in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 202M SAR (≈ $53.7M) · P/E ratio 37.6 · P/S ratio 2.31 · EPS (TTM) 0.0500 SAR · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −64%, 9532 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.5015 SARFair Value 0.6715 SARBull 0.8840 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0352 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−44.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−44.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 87 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−68% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)37.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.57× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.76× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF2.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 46
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 51
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9532
Frequently asked questions
Is Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.6715 SAR versus a price of 1.88 SAR, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9532?
Our model-based fair value for Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 0.6715 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.88 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9532?
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.6715 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.5015 SAR, optimistic scenario 0.8840 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.6715 SAR, about −64% upside versus a price of 1.88 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.5015 SAR, optimistic scenario 0.8840 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 71.0M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. would have to grow free cash flow by +1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.2 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9532 use?
Our models discount Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. that is +1.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. grew -0.2 % a year. The price currently implies +1.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (+1.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.62 %: that much free cash flow Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. it is 0.6715 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 1.88 SAR. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 9532 trades above its calculated fair value: price 1.88 SAR, fair value 0.6715 SAR, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9532?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.88 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.6715 SAR). For Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. the two are 1.21 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. worth?
The market values Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. at about 202M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 1.88 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 0.6715 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9532?
Our models span a range for Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co.: cautious scenario 0.5015 SAR, base 0.6715 SAR, optimistic 0.8840 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 1.88 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9532?
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.6 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.6715 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 4.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9532 from its 52-week high?
Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. trades at 1.88 SAR, about 34% below its 52-week high of 2.86 SAR and 14% above the low of 1.65 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.6715 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 1.88 SAR, calculated fair value 0.6715 SAR (−64%), Quality Score 45/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9532 calculated?
We run Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.6715 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.8840 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The market capitalisation of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 202M SAR (≈ $53.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 2.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Earnings per share at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. are 0.0500 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The net margin of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
The operating margin of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Revenue at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is growing +25.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532)?
Earnings per share at Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. are growing +80.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. (9532) carry?
The net debt of Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling Co. is 41.1M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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