Riyadh Steel Co. (9588) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Riyadh Steel Co. stock SAR 1.39, price SAR 1.53, upside -9.2%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
35‑month range 1.13 SAR – 965,035 SAR · fair‑value band 1.04 SAR – 1.74 SAR · the 1.53 SAR price screens above the 1.39 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Riyadh Steel Company engaged in the production of corner bars, straighteners, iron alloys, and processed scrap in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The company offers the manufacture of iron products in the form of blocks of pillars and residues after re-smelting; retail sale of building materials, cement, bricks, cement tile; and the manufacture of metal vessels used in the transport and packaging of goods, including barrels, waste containers, waste, buckets, boxes, and cans.
Riyadh Steel Company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Riyadh Steel Co. (9588) currently trades at 1.53 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.39 SAR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 10.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 2.09 SAR per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the 1.53 SAR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 0.6400 SAR, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.04 SAR (bear) to 1.74 SAR (bull), the price of 1.53 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Riyadh Steel Co. reported revenue of 151M SAR in FY2025 versus 145M SAR in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 5.7M SAR in FY2025, compounding +6.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 109M SAR (≈ $29.1M) Micro · P/E ratio 11.8 · P/S ratio 0.79 · EPS (TTM) 0.1300 SAR · Dividend yield 6.5% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −9%, 9588 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear1.04 SARFair Value 1.39 SARBull1.74 SAR
Price 1.53 SAR · Upside -9.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0250 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−23.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−29.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 5%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 408 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−9.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−15.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Riyadh Steel Co. (9588) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.39 SAR versus a price of 1.53 SAR, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 9588?
Our model-based fair value for Riyadh Steel Co. is 1.39 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.53 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9588?
Riyadh Steel Co. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.39 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.04 SAR, optimistic scenario 1.74 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Riyadh Steel Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.39 SAR, about −9% upside versus a price of 1.53 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 1.04 SAR, optimistic scenario 1.74 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
Riyadh Steel Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 139M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
Does Riyadh Steel Co. pay a dividend?
Riyadh Steel Co. currently shows a dividend yield of 6.54% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Riyadh Steel Co. would have to grow free cash flow by -10.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9588 use?
Our models discount Riyadh Steel Co. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Riyadh Steel Co. that is -10.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Riyadh Steel Co. (9588) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Riyadh Steel Co. grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies -10.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Riyadh Steel Co. (-10.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.32 %: that much free cash flow Riyadh Steel Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Riyadh Steel Co. it is 1.39 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 1.53 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Riyadh Steel Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 9588 trades above its calculated fair value: price 1.53 SAR, fair value 1.39 SAR, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9588?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.53 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.39 SAR). For Riyadh Steel Co. the two are 0.1400 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Riyadh Steel Co. worth?
The market values Riyadh Steel Co. at about 109M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 1.53 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 1.39 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9588?
Our models span a range for Riyadh Steel Co.: cautious scenario 1.04 SAR, base 1.39 SAR, optimistic 1.74 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 1.53 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9588?
Riyadh Steel Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.39 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
Balance-sheet figures for Riyadh Steel Co. (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 11.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9588 from its 52-week high?
Riyadh Steel Co. trades at 1.53 SAR, about 13% below its 52-week high of 1.76 SAR and 26% above the low of 1.22 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.39 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Riyadh Steel Co.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Riyadh Steel Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 1.53 SAR, calculated fair value 1.39 SAR (−9%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9588 calculated?
We run Riyadh Steel Co. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.39 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Riyadh Steel Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 1.53 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 1.39 SAR, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Riyadh Steel Co. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Riyadh Steel Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
The market capitalisation of Riyadh Steel Co. is 109M SAR (≈ $29.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Riyadh Steel Co. is 0.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
Earnings per share at Riyadh Steel Co. are 0.1300 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
The dividend yield of Riyadh Steel Co. is 6.5% (payout 76.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
The net margin of Riyadh Steel Co. is 6.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Riyadh Steel Co. is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Riyadh Steel Co. is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
The operating margin of Riyadh Steel Co. is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
Revenue at Riyadh Steel Co. is growing −15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Riyadh Steel Co. (9588)?
Earnings per share at Riyadh Steel Co. are growing +146% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Riyadh Steel Co. (9588) hold?
Riyadh Steel Co. holds more cash than debt, 629K SAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 29, 2026