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NIO Inc (9866) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NIO Inc stock HK$19.12, price HK$26.46, that is 27.7% below the price, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical HK · Based in China · ISIN KYG6525F1028

NI NIO Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

NIO Inc

9866 · HK
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 28% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +69% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +40.0 %/yr in CNY)
Fair value HK$19.12 · Overvalued
Quality 30/100
Loss-making · -4.2% net margin (TTM)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/11)
Narrow moat 9/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

HK$193.50 HK$24.50 Fair Value HK$19.12 Mar 2022 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

56‑month range HK$24.50 – HK$193.50 · fair‑value band HK$14.34 – HK$23.90 · the HK$26.46 price screens above the HK$19.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China, Europe, and internationally. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans.

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The company also offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging solution; Power Swap, a battery-swapping service; Power Charger and Destination Charger; Power Mobile, a mobile charging service through charging vans; Power Map, an application that provides access to a network of public chargers and their real-time information; and One Click for power valet service.

In addition, it provides repair, maintenance, car beauty, and inspection services through its service centers and authorized third-party service centers; vehicle transportation and delivery, pre-delivery inspections, guidance on vehicle features, assistance with vehicle registration, and insurance processing services; insurance, maintenance, repairs, accident rescue, car washing, chauffeur services, and valet parking services; and remote monitoring and real-time diagnostics services, as well as technical, warranty, and auto financing arrangements.

Further, the company is involved in the provision of energy and service packages to its users; design and technology development activities; manufacture of electric powertrains, battery packs, and components; and sales and after-sales management activities.

Additionally, it operates in app NIO Auto Mall where users can select from various accessories and value added services; and online auction platform. The company was formerly known as NextEV Inc. and changed its name to NIO Inc. in July 2017.

NIO Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

NIO Inc (9866) currently trades at HK$26.46, while our estimate is HK$19.12, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: HK$14.34 (bear) to HK$23.90 (bull), the price of HK$26.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

NIO Inc reported revenue of 87.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 36.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was −14.6B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$66.1B (≈ $8.4B) Mid · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.8200 · Net margin −16.7% · Return on equity −45.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1.1% · Revenue (TTM) 114B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 9 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −28%, 9866 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear HK$14.34 Fair Value HK$19.12 Bull HK$23.90
Price HK$26.46 · Downside -27.7%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 13
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 97
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 17
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 76
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 45
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 5
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−28.3% (2020) → −16.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

9866 screens overvalued: fair value 28% below the price. Compare with Tesla, Inc →

Compare NIO Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −27.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −11.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −4.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −1.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 69.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.07× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 13.49× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.49× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 11.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €41.37 €106.12 +157% vs 9866
Ford Motor Company F $12.28 $20.03 +63% vs 9866
General Motors Company GM $88.69 $107.81 +22% vs 9866
Honda Motor Co HMC $34.88 $39.52 +13% vs 9866
Ferrari N.V RACE $415.73 $450.06 +8% vs 9866
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $214.78 $211.94 −1% vs 9866
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 275,000 KRW 257,654 KRW −6% vs 9866
BYD Company 002594 ¥84.44 ¥77.84 −8% vs 9866
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €46.06 €24.72 −46% vs 9866
Tesla, Inc TSLA $379.78 $40.00 −89% vs 9866

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NIO Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NIO Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9866

Frequently asked questions

Is NIO Inc (9866) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is HK$19.12 versus a price of HK$26.46, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9866?
Our estimate for NIO Inc is HK$19.12 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$26.46.
What is the quality score of 9866?
NIO Inc has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NIO Inc (9866)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of HK$19.12 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario HK$14.34, optimistic scenario HK$23.90. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the NIO Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at HK$19.12, about 28% lower versus a price of HK$26.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$14.34, optimistic scenario HK$23.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NIO Inc (9866)?
NIO Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 114B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NIO Inc (9866)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NIO Inc it is HK$19.12 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of HK$26.46.
Is NIO Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, 9866 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$26.46, fair value HK$19.12, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9866?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$26.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$19.12). For NIO Inc the two are HK$7.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NIO Inc worth?
The market values NIO Inc at about HK$66.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is HK$26.46; our models calculate a fair value of HK$19.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9866?
Our models span a range for NIO Inc: cautious scenario HK$14.34, base HK$19.12, optimistic HK$23.90 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price HK$26.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of NIO Inc (9866)?
Balance-sheet figures for NIO Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −45.3%, debt of 2.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9866 from its 52-week high?
NIO Inc trades at HK$26.46, about 52% below its 52-week high of HK$54.90 and 6% above the low of HK$25.04 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$19.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NIO Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NIO Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price HK$26.46, calculated fair value HK$19.12 (−28%), Quality Score 30/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. NIO Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NIO Inc (9866)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was HK$26.46. Our estimate is HK$19.12, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NIO Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$23.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of NIO Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of NIO Inc (9866)?
The market capitalisation of NIO Inc is HK$66.1B (≈ $8.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NIO Inc (9866)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NIO Inc is 0.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NIO Inc (9866)?
Earnings per share at NIO Inc are HK$−0.8200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NIO Inc (9866)?
The net margin of NIO Inc is −16.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NIO Inc (9866)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NIO Inc is −45.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NIO Inc (9866)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NIO Inc is −14.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NIO Inc (9866)?
The operating margin of NIO Inc is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NIO Inc (9866)?
Revenue at NIO Inc is growing +69.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does NIO Inc (9866) generate?
The free cash flow of NIO Inc is −3.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does NIO Inc (9866) carry?
The net debt of NIO Inc is 5.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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