Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$8.0B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$6.90 to HK$6.74 (−2.3%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +5.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$8.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range HK$3.99 – HK$9.49 · fair‑value band HK$5.06 – HK$8.43 · the HK$9.49 price screens above the HK$6.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879) currently trades at HK$9.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$6.74, implying the stock looks roughly 29.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Migao Grp Hldg Ltd generated revenue of HK$6.2B at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue grew 34.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$78.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$5.06 (bear case) to HK$8.43 (bull case); at HK$9.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -17% fair-value upside, at -29%, 9879 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$10.68) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.9200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Migao Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in sourcing, procuring, processing, manufacturing, and trading of specialty potash-based fertilizers in the People's Republic of China. The company provides potassium chloride, potassium sulphate, hydrochloric acid, and compound fertilizers; and resells potassium nitrate.
Full company description
Migao Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in sourcing, procuring, processing, manufacturing, and trading of specialty potash-based fertilizers in the People's Republic of China. The company provides potassium chloride, potassium sulphate, hydrochloric acid, and compound fertilizers; and resells potassium nitrate. It also offers warehousing services; research and development related services; and technical and project management services. Migao Group Holdings Limited sells its products to agricultural reclamation and agribusiness companies. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Migao Group Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Migao Holding Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Migao Grp Hldg Ltd reported revenue of HK$6.0B in FY2026 versus HK$3.8B in FY2022, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$360M in FY2026, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2022.
9879 screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 178 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $76.22 | $27.81 | -64% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$93.60 | C$81.69 | -13% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥27.65 | ¥21.26 | -23% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $120.01 | $161.00 | +34% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 418.10 | kr 67.25 | -84% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥29.82 | ¥42.12 | +41% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥45.86 | ¥38.01 | -17% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,089 | ₹1,129 | -46% |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹570.50 | ₹387.06 | -32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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