Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd HK$4.16, price HK$9.01, upside -53.8%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
30‑month range HK$3.99 – HK$9.50 · fair‑value band HK$2.95 – HK$7.01 · the HK$9.01 price screens above the HK$4.16 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Migao Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in sourcing, procuring, processing, manufacturing, and trading of specialty potash-based fertilizers in the People's Republic of China. The company provides potassium chloride, potassium sulphate, hydrochloric acid, and compound fertilizers; and resells potassium nitrate.
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Migao Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in sourcing, procuring, processing, manufacturing, and trading of specialty potash-based fertilizers in the People's Republic of China. The company provides potassium chloride, potassium sulphate, hydrochloric acid, and compound fertilizers; and resells potassium nitrate. It also offers warehousing services; research and development related services; and technical and project management services. Migao Group Holdings Limited sells its products to agricultural reclamation and agribusiness companies. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Migao Group Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Migao Holding Limited.
Stock analysis
Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879) currently trades at HK$9.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$4.16, 53.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$9.91 per share, and 3 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$9.01 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.7800, and 14 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$2.95 (bear) to HK$7.01 (bull), the price of HK$9.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Migao Grp Hldg Ltd reported revenue of HK$6.0B in FY2026 versus HK$3.8B in FY2022, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$360M in FY2026, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$8.2B (≈ $1.0B) · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3500 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 6.0% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at −54%, 9879 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.95Fair Value HK$4.16Bull HK$7.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1346 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
’20
’21
’22
’23
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 8%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 178 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−53.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.3% · Above median
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth34.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.7× · Pricier than median
P/B2.70× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.33× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)49· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)18· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$4.16 versus a price of HK$9.01, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9879?
Our model-based fair value for Migao Grp Hldg Ltd is HK$4.16 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.01.
What is the quality score of 9879?
Migao Grp Hldg Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$4.16 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.95, optimistic scenario HK$7.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Migao Grp Hldg Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$4.16, about −54% upside versus a price of HK$9.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.95, optimistic scenario HK$7.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
Migao Grp Hldg Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$6.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Migao Grp Hldg Ltd pay a dividend?
Migao Grp Hldg Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Migao Grp Hldg Ltd it is HK$4.16 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$9.01. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Migao Grp Hldg Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 9879 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$9.01, fair value HK$4.16, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9879?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$9.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$4.16). For Migao Grp Hldg Ltd the two are HK$4.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Migao Grp Hldg Ltd worth?
The market values Migao Grp Hldg Ltd at about HK$8.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$9.01; our models calculate a fair value of HK$4.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9879?
Our models span a range for Migao Grp Hldg Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.95, base HK$4.16, optimistic HK$7.01 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$9.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9879?
Migao Grp Hldg Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$4.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 14.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
Balance-sheet figures for Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9879 from its 52-week high?
Migao Grp Hldg Ltd trades at HK$9.01, about 5% below its 52-week high of HK$9.50 and 42% above the low of HK$6.36 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$4.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Migao Grp Hldg Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Migao Grp Hldg Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$9.01, calculated fair value HK$4.16 (−54%), Quality Score 52/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9879 calculated?
We run Migao Grp Hldg Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$4.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Migao Grp Hldg Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$9.01. Our model-based fair value is HK$4.16, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Migao Grp Hldg Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$7.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.95 to HK$7.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
The market capitalisation of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd is HK$8.2B (≈ $1.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
Earnings per share at Migao Grp Hldg Ltd are HK$0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
The dividend yield of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd is 0.9% (payout 23.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
The net margin of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd is 6.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
The operating margin of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
Revenue at Migao Grp Hldg Ltd is growing +34.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879)?
Earnings per share at Migao Grp Hldg Ltd are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879) generate?
The free cash flow of Migao Grp Hldg Ltd is −HK$1.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Migao Grp Hldg Ltd (9879) hold?
Migao Grp Hldg Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$78.9M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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