Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd TWD 32.39, price TWD 33.80, upside -4.2%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 32.97 TWD – 51.30 TWD · fair‑value band 25.40 TWD – 40.37 TWD · the 33.80 TWD price screens above the 32.39 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hsin Kao Gas Co.,Ltd. engages in the installation of natural gas for supplying domestic and commercial fuels and related pipelines in Taiwan. It is involved in the residential building development, sale, and leasing, as well as international trade businesses. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) currently trades at 33.80 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 32.39 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 4.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 34.37 TWD per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the 33.80 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 11.38 TWD, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 25.40 TWD (bear) to 40.37 TWD (bull), the price of 33.80 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.6B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.2B TWD in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was 295M TWD in FY2025, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.2B TWD (≈ $132M) · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 2.60 · EPS (TTM) 2.44 TWD · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 18.8% · Return on equity 8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −4%, 9931 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 25.40 TWDFair Value 32.39 TWDBull 40.37 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4699 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 65% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9931
Frequently asked questions
Is Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 32.39 TWD versus a price of 33.80 TWD, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 9931?
Our model-based fair value for Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 32.39 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 33.80 TWD.
What is the quality score of 9931?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 32.39 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 25.40 TWD, optimistic scenario 40.37 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 32.39 TWD, about −4% upside versus a price of 33.80 TWD (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 25.40 TWD, optimistic scenario 40.37 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -0.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9931 use?
Our models discount Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd that is -0.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies -0.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (-0.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.91 %: that much free cash flow Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd it is 32.39 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 33.80 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 9931 trades above its calculated fair value: price 33.80 TWD, fair value 32.39 TWD, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9931?
No. The price is what the market pays today (33.80 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (32.39 TWD). For Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd the two are 1.41 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd at about 4.2B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 33.80 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 32.39 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9931?
Our models span a range for Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd: cautious scenario 25.40 TWD, base 32.39 TWD, optimistic 40.37 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 33.80 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9931?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 32.39 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9931 from its 52-week high?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd trades at 33.80 TWD, about 34% below its 52-week high of 51.30 TWD and 3% above the low of 32.97 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 32.39 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 33.80 TWD, calculated fair value 32.39 TWD (−4%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9931 calculated?
We run Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 32.39 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 33.80 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 32.39 TWD, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) come from?
Earnings per share at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd grew +4.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin +3.7 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The market capitalisation of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 4.2B TWD (≈ $132M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 2.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Earnings per share at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd are 2.44 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The dividend yield of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 5.3% (payout 73.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The net margin of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 18.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The operating margin of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Revenue at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is growing +2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Earnings per share at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd are growing −9.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) hold?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 11.9M TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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