Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd stock TWD 29.23, price TWD 34.20, that is 14.5% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 32.97 TWD – 51.30 TWD · fair‑value band 23.50 TWD – 37.30 TWD · the 34.20 TWD price screens above the 29.23 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Hsin Kao Gas Co.,Ltd. engages in the installation of natural gas for supplying domestic and commercial fuels and related pipelines in Taiwan. It is involved in the residential building development, sale, and leasing, as well as international trade businesses.
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The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) currently trades at 34.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 29.23 TWD, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 34.37 TWD per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the 34.20 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 15.15 TWD, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 23.50 TWD (bear) to 37.30 TWD (bull), the price of 34.20 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.6B TWD in FY2025 versus 1.2B TWD in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was 295M TWD in FY2025, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.2B TWD (≈ $129M) Micro · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 2.60 · EPS (TTM) 2.85 TWD · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 21.2% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −15%, 9931 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear23.50 TWDFair Value 29.23 TWDBull37.30 TWD
Price 34.20 TWD · Downside -14.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.9004 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.1% vs 4.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 65% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−14.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.2% · Above median
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)21.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.28× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)2.60× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.3× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9931
Frequently asked questions
Is Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 29.23 TWD versus a price of 34.20 TWD, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9931?
Our model-based fair value for Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 29.23 TWD (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 34.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 9931?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 29.23 TWD (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 23.50 TWD, optimistic scenario 37.30 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 29.23 TWD, about 15% lower versus a price of 34.20 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 23.50 TWD, optimistic scenario 37.30 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.26% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd pays a dividend of 1.80 TWD per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 30, 2026. The payout ratio is 63.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.73 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9931 use?
Our models discount Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd that is -0.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -0.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (-0.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.87 %: that much free cash flow Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd it is 29.23 TWD per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 34.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 9931 trades above its calculated fair value: price 34.20 TWD, fair value 29.23 TWD, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9931?
No. The price is what the market pays today (34.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (29.23 TWD). For Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd the two are 4.97 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd at about 4.2B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 34.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 29.23 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9931?
Our models span a range for Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd: cautious scenario 23.50 TWD, base 29.23 TWD, optimistic 37.30 TWD per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 34.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9931?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 29.23 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 10.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9931 from its 52-week high?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd trades at 34.20 TWD, about 33% below its 52-week high of 51.30 TWD and 4% above the low of 32.97 TWD (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 29.23 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Snam S.p.A, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 34.20 TWD, calculated fair value 29.23 TWD (−15%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9931 calculated?
We run Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 29.23 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 34.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 29.23 TWD, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) come from?
Earnings per share at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd grew +4.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin +3.7 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The market capitalisation of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 4.2B TWD (≈ $129M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 2.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Earnings per share at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd are 2.85 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The dividend yield of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 5.3% (payout 63.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The net margin of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 21.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
The operating margin of Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Revenue at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931)?
Earnings per share at Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd are growing +161% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd (9931) hold?
Hsin Kao Gas Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 11.9M TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026