Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Axon Enterprise, Inc. BRL 125, price BRL 122, upside +2.1%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range R$23.95 – R$262.71 · fair‑value band R$100.58 – R$204.71 · the R$122.16 price screens below the R$124.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices.
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Axon Enterprise, Inc. provides public safety technology solutions in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Services, and Connected Devices. The Software and Services segment develops, manufactures, and sells cloud-based software-as-a-service solutions to capture, store, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. This segment also offers Axon Evidence, Draft One, Axon Records, Axon Standards, Axon Fusus, Axon Assistant, and others. The Connected Devices segment engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of integrated hardware solutions, such as conducted energy devices under the TASER brand, body cameras, fixed and in-car cameras, drone and counter-drone technologies, accessories, extended warranties, and related hardware products, as well as virtual reality training hardware. The company serves first responders across international, federal, state, and local governments, international governmental entities, commercial enterprises, and consumers through direct sales, distribution partners, and third-party resellers. The company was formerly known as TASER International, Inc. and changed its name to Axon Enterprise, Inc. in April 2017. Axon Enterprise, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34) currently trades at R$122.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$124.74, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$354.48 per share, and 15 of the 18 models we run sit above the R$122.16 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R$106.26, and 3 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$100.58 (bear) to R$204.71 (bull), the price of R$122.16 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Axon Enterprise, Inc. reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2022, a compound +32.8%/yr. Reported net income was $125M in FY2025, compounding −5.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$11.7B (≈ $2.2B) · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) R$12.86 · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 2%, A2XO34 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$100.58Fair Value R$124.74Bull R$204.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$9.72 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → −4%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+25.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.4% a year for the price and +22.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−93.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.8% · Below median
Return on assets0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)3.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth33.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Axon Enterprise, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/A2XO34
Frequently asked questions
Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$124.74 versus a price of R$122.16, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of A2XO34?
Our model-based fair value for Axon Enterprise, Inc. is R$124.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$122.16.
What is the quality score of A2XO34?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$124.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 18 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$100.58, optimistic scenario R$204.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Axon Enterprise, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$124.74, about +2% upside versus a price of R$122.16 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$100.58, optimistic scenario R$204.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Axon Enterprise, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +24.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +32.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of A2XO34 use?
Our models discount Axon Enterprise, Inc. at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.38, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Axon Enterprise, Inc. that is +24.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Axon Enterprise, Inc. grew +32.8 % a year. The price currently implies +24.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Axon Enterprise, Inc. (+24.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.07 %: that much free cash flow Axon Enterprise, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Axon Enterprise, Inc. it is R$124.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$122.16. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, A2XO34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$122.16, fair value R$124.74, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of A2XO34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$122.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$124.74). For Axon Enterprise, Inc. the two are R$2.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Axon Enterprise, Inc. worth?
The market values Axon Enterprise, Inc. at about R$11.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$122.16; our models calculate a fair value of R$124.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A2XO34?
Our models span a range for Axon Enterprise, Inc.: cautious scenario R$100.58, base R$124.74, optimistic R$204.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$122.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of A2XO34?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$124.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 26.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Axon Enterprise, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.8%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is A2XO34 from its 52-week high?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. trades at R$122.16, about 46% below its 52-week high of R$225.30 and 27% above the low of R$96.39 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$124.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Axon Enterprise, Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$122.16, calculated fair value R$124.74 (+2%), Quality Score 41/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of A2XO34 calculated?
We run Axon Enterprise, Inc. through 18 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$124.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Axon Enterprise, Inc. currently trades 2 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was R$122.16. Our model-based fair value is R$124.74, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Axon Enterprise, Inc. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (R$100.58 to R$204.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Axon Enterprise, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
The market capitalisation of Axon Enterprise, Inc. is R$11.7B (≈ $2.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Axon Enterprise, Inc. is 0.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
Earnings per share at Axon Enterprise, Inc. are R$12.86 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
The net margin of Axon Enterprise, Inc. is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Axon Enterprise, Inc. is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Axon Enterprise, Inc. is 1.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
The operating margin of Axon Enterprise, Inc. is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
Revenue at Axon Enterprise, Inc. is growing +33.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34)?
Earnings per share at Axon Enterprise, Inc. are growing +89.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Axon Enterprise, Inc. (A2XO34) carry?
The net debt of Axon Enterprise, Inc. is $610M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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