Alcoa Corporation (AAI) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$18.6B (≈ $13.4B)

What is Alcoa Corporation really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The model range is unusually wide (A$29.02 to A$88.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (2 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

25‑month range A$35.95 – A$116.61 · fair‑value band A$29.02 – A$88.24 · the A$70.57 price screens above the A$49.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Alcoa Corporation (AAI) currently trades at A$70.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$49.53, implying the stock looks roughly 42.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$69.77 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$70.57 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$6.01, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Alcoa Corporation generated revenue of A$12.7B at a net margin of 8.2%. Revenue declined 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.4%. Net debt stands at A$818M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$29.02 (bear case) to A$88.24 (bull case); at A$70.57, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 28% fair-value upside, at −30%, AAI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$3.59 per share, which is 7.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Multiples (A$69.77) versus Dividend Discount (A$6.01). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum.

Full company description

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company also offers aluminium powder and scrap and primary aluminum in the form of commodity grade ingot and value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alcoa Corporation reported revenue of $13.2B in FY2025 versus $12.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding +29.5%/yr from FY2021.

AAI screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →

Peer Group

Aluminum · 83 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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