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Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Arbor Realty Trust $5.83, price $4.19, upside +39.2%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Real Estate · US · ISIN US0389231087

AR Arbor Realty Trust logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Arbor Realty Trust

ABR · US

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value $5.83 · Undervalued (+39%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +22.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·20.74% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!The models disagree: range $2.16 to $12.91
!Weak on past: 16 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$12.61 $4.19 Fair Value $5.83 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.19 – $12.61 · fair‑value band $2.16 – $12.91 · the $4.19 price screens below the $5.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business.

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Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. The company invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, real estate-related notes, and various mortgage-related securities. It also offers bridge financing products to borrowers who seek short-term capital to be used in an acquisition of property; financing products to borrowers looking to develop, acquire or refinance conventional, workforce and affordable single-family rental (SFR) housing; multifamily investors short-term floating-rate financing for new and construction-ready multifamily projects; and mezzanine financing in the form of loans that are subordinate to a conventional first mortgage loan and senior to the borrower's equity in a transaction. In addition, the company provides financing by making preferred equity investments in entities that directly or indirectly own real property that are subordinate to a first mortgage loan; and invest in structured transactions, which are primarily comprised of joint ventures formed to acquire, develop and/or sell real estate-related assets. Further, it underwrites, originates, sells, and services financing loans underwritten using similar guidelines of existing agency loans sold to the government-sponsored enterprises; and long-term permanent fixed rate loans on SFR properties. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.

Stock analysis

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) currently trades at $4.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.83, implying the stock looks roughly 28.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $47.33 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the $4.19 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.29, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $2.16 (bear) to $12.91 (bull), the price of $4.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Arbor Realty Trust reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $661M in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $149M in FY2025, compounding −18.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 1.59 · EPS (TTM) $0.4000 · Net margin 12.3% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% · Operating margin 18.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 39%, ABR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.16 Fair Value $5.83 Bull $12.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $11.07 $10.93 $9.70 76
FCF DCF $38.45 $69.07 $160.60 74
Growth DCF $34.24 $75.40 $151.12 73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $38.45 $69.07 $160.60 74
5Y Revenue Exit n/a $10.15 $31.08 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $17.86 $47.33 $104.26 68
10Y Revenue Exit $12.33 $37.37 $48.01 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $24.79 $72.70 $155.55 62
Multiples
P/S Multiple $9.86 $13.15 $16.44 58
P/B Multiple $9.86 $13.15 $16.44 55
EV/EBIT $14.08 $28.16 $42.24 63
EV/EBITDA $7.95 $19.98 $32.02 63
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.68 $10.29 $15.35 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $34.24 $75.40 $151.12 73
Rev-Margin DCF n/a $10.30 $32.77 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $11.07 $10.93 $9.70 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 98
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 9
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+93.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +29.9% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.58% → 75%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.4% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +39% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 22% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −10% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 20.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.00× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.36× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.03× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 2.7× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.65× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)86 · sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 9
PAST (return on equity)16 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 0
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 100

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY $21.44 $23.37 +9%
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC $10.09 $25.23 +150%
Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD $15.10 $35.89 +138%
Rithm Capital Corp RITM $9.64 $12.93 +34%
Dynex Capital, Inc DX $12.10 $11.09 −8%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT $13.14 $32.85 +150%
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR $14.99 $23.05 +54%
Ellington Financial Inc EFC $12.70 $13.45 +6%
Ladder Capital Corp LADR $9.41 $7.57 −20%
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC $6.12 $15.30 +150%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arbor Realty Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ABR

Frequently asked questions

Is Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.83 versus a price of $4.19, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ABR?
Our model-based fair value for Arbor Realty Trust is $5.83 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.19.
What is the quality score of ABR?
Arbor Realty Trust has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.83 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.16, optimistic scenario $12.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arbor Realty Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.83, about +39% upside versus a price of $4.19 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.16, optimistic scenario $12.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
Arbor Realty Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $530M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arbor Realty Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +11.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ABR use?
Our models discount Arbor Realty Trust at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arbor Realty Trust that is +11.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arbor Realty Trust grew +22.5 % a year. The price currently implies +11.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arbor Realty Trust (+11.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 45.10 %: that much free cash flow Arbor Realty Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arbor Realty Trust it is $5.83 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.19. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arbor Realty Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ABR trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.19, fair value $5.83, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ABR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.83). For Arbor Realty Trust the two are $1.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arbor Realty Trust worth?
The market values Arbor Realty Trust at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.19; our models calculate a fair value of $5.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ABR?
Our models span a range for Arbor Realty Trust: cautious scenario $2.16, base $5.83, optimistic $12.91 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ABR?
Arbor Realty Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 0.4, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ABR?
The PEG ratio of Arbor Realty Trust is 1.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arbor Realty Trust (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.1%, debt of 2.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ABR from its 52-week high?
Arbor Realty Trust trades at $4.19, about 63% below its 52-week high of $11.29 and at the low of $4.19 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arbor Realty Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arbor Realty Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.19, calculated fair value $5.83 (+39%), Quality Score 57/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ABR calculated?
We run Arbor Realty Trust through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arbor Realty Trust currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.19. Our model-based fair value is $5.83, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arbor Realty Trust right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($2.16 to $12.91). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Arbor Realty Trust

How large is the market capitalisation of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
The market capitalisation of Arbor Realty Trust is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arbor Realty Trust is 1.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
Earnings per share at Arbor Realty Trust are $0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
The net margin of Arbor Realty Trust is 12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arbor Realty Trust is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arbor Realty Trust is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
The operating margin of Arbor Realty Trust is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
Revenue at Arbor Realty Trust is growing −10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)?
Earnings per share at Arbor Realty Trust are growing −98.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) carry?
The net debt of Arbor Realty Trust is $10.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 26.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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