Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc $16.03, price $6.26, upside +156.1%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.27 – $7.02 · fair‑value band $7.77 – $31.45 · the $6.26 price screens below the $16.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code.
Show more
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) currently trades at $6.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.03, implying the stock looks roughly 60.9% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $39.31 per share, and 15 of the 15 models we run sit above the $6.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.70, and 0 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.77 (bear) to $31.45 (bull), the price of $6.26 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc reported revenue of $710M in FY2025 versus $421M in FY2021, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was $127M in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $824M · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 1.40 · EPS (TTM) $0.8000 · Net margin 17.8% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% · Operating margin 91.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 156%, ARI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.77Fair Value $16.03Bull $31.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.9% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7% vs −7%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.73% → 65%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+66.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +62.4% a year for the price.
Compare Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+156% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)21% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)91% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth525% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)16.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.89× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARI
Frequently asked questions
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.03 versus a price of $6.26, about +156% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARI?
Our model-based fair value for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is $16.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.26.
What is the quality score of ARI?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.03 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.77, optimistic scenario $31.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.03, about +156% upside versus a price of $6.26 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.77, optimistic scenario $31.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $624M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +66.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARI use?
Our models discount Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.45, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc that is +66.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc grew +27.5 % a year. The price currently implies +66.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (+66.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.14 %: that much free cash flow Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc it is $16.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $6.26. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARI trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.26, fair value $16.03, a gap of about +156% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.03). For Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc the two are $9.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc worth?
The market values Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc at about $824M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $6.26; our models calculate a fair value of $16.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARI?
Our models span a range for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc: cautious scenario $7.77, base $16.03, optimistic $31.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $6.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARI?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 0.4, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
What is the PEG ratio of ARI?
The PEG ratio of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is 1.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARI from its 52-week high?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc trades at $6.26, about 11% below its 52-week high of $7.02 and 64% above the low of $3.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $6.26, calculated fair value $16.03 (+156%), Quality Score 52/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARI calculated?
We run Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc currently trades 156 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $6.26. Our model-based fair value is $16.03, about +156% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($7.77 to $31.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) come from?
Earnings per share at Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc grew −11.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.7 %, EBIT margin −6.8 %, tax rate +8.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −19.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
The market capitalisation of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is $824M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is 1.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
Earnings per share at Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc are $0.8000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
The net margin of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is 17.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
The operating margin of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is 91.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
Revenue at Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is growing +525% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)?
Earnings per share at Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc are growing −10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) carry?
The net debt of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc is $7.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026