Accel Entertainment, Inc (ACEL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.0B

A solid business, screening 14% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The model range is unusually wide ($7.51 to $20.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Our model range runs from $7.51 (bear) to $20.24 (bull), base $13.91. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 56/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.35 – $13.89 · fair‑value band $7.51 – $20.24 · the $12.16 price screens below the $13.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Accel Entertainment, Inc (ACEL) currently trades at $12.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.91, implying the stock looks roughly 14.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Accel Entertainment, Inc generated revenue of $1.4B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.0%. Net debt stands at $333M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $7.51 (bear case) to $20.24 (bull case); at $12.16, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 14%, ACEL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($19.48) versus Dividend Discount ($0.2700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States.

Full company description

Accel Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a distributed gaming operator in the United States. It engages in the installation, maintenance, and operation of gaming terminals; redemption devices that disburse winnings and contain automated teller machine (ATM) functionality; and other amusement devices in authorized non-casino locations, such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores. The company also designs and manufactures gaming terminals and related equipment, as well as offers turnkey and full-service gaming solutions to bars, restaurants, convenience stores, truck stops, and fraternal and veteran establishments. In addition, it operates stand-alone ATMs in gaming and non-gaming locations, as well as amusement devices, including jukeboxes, dartboards, pool tables, and other entertainment related equipment; and develops brick-and-mortar casinos that serve local gaming markets and horse racing venues. Accel Entertainment, Inc. is headquartered in Burr Ridge, Illinois.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Accel Entertainment, Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $735M in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was $51.5M in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Gambling · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.