La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme €24.57, price €21.65, upside +13.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.37 – €37.73 · fair‑value band €17.20 – €33.43 · the €21.65 price screens below the €24.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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FDJ United engages in the gambling operation and distribution business in France and internationally. The company operates through Lottery and Sports Betting; Online Betting and Gaming; International Lottery; and Payment and Services segments.
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FDJ United engages in the gambling operation and distribution business in France and internationally. The company operates through Lottery and Sports Betting; Online Betting and Gaming; International Lottery; and Payment and Services segments. It offers prize draws, such as Loto and Euromillions, as well as Illiko instant games; online offer (open to competition), including sports betting and horse-race betting, poker and casino games; and payment and collection service through a network of point"of"sale registered as agents. The company also provides B2B solutions; and owns Relax Gaming, a supplier of online gambling products. The company was formerly known as La Française des Jeux Société anonyme and changed its name to FDJ United in March 2025. FDJ United was founded in 1933 and is based in Boulogne-Billancourt, France.
Stock analysis
La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ) currently trades at €21.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €24.57, implying the stock looks roughly 11.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €43.59 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the €21.65 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.54, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €17.20 (bear) to €33.43 (bull), the price of €21.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
La Française des Jeux Société anonyme reported revenue of €3.7B in FY2025 versus €2.3B in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was €176M in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €4.0B · P/E ratio 22.8 · P/S ratio 1.09 · EPS (TTM) €0.9500 · Dividend yield 9.7% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 16.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 24% fair-value upside, at 14%, FDJ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €17.20Fair Value €24.57Bull €33.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+18.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 15%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.4% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (63 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare La Française des Jeux Société anonyme with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 57 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.07× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.8× · Pricier than median
P/B4.81× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "La Française des Jeux Société anonyme Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FDJ
Frequently asked questions
Is La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €24.57 versus a price of €21.65, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FDJ?
Our model-based fair value for La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is €24.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €21.65.
What is the quality score of FDJ?
La Française des Jeux Société anonyme has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €24.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €17.20, optimistic scenario €33.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the La Française des Jeux Société anonyme stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €24.57, about +14% upside versus a price of €21.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €17.20, optimistic scenario €33.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
La Française des Jeux Société anonyme reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does La Française des Jeux Société anonyme pay a dividend?
La Française des Jeux Société anonyme currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, La Française des Jeux Société anonyme would have to grow free cash flow by -5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +13.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FDJ use?
Our models discount La Française des Jeux Société anonyme at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for Austria. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For La Française des Jeux Société anonyme that is -5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at La Française des Jeux Société anonyme grew +13.0 % a year. The price currently implies -5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (-5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.21 %: that much free cash flow La Française des Jeux Société anonyme produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For La Française des Jeux Société anonyme it is €24.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €21.65. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is La Française des Jeux Société anonyme stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FDJ trades below its calculated fair value: price €21.65, fair value €24.57, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FDJ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€21.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€24.57). For La Française des Jeux Société anonyme the two are €2.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is La Française des Jeux Société anonyme worth?
The market values La Française des Jeux Société anonyme at about €4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €21.65; our models calculate a fair value of €24.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FDJ?
Our models span a range for La Française des Jeux Société anonyme: cautious scenario €17.20, base €24.57, optimistic €33.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €21.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FDJ?
La Française des Jeux Société anonyme trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €24.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.8, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
Balance-sheet figures for La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.3%, debt of 2.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FDJ from its 52-week high?
La Française des Jeux Société anonyme trades at €21.65, about 18% below its 52-week high of €26.46 and 6% above the low of €20.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €24.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to La Française des Jeux Société anonyme?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Flutter Entertainment plc, Evolution AB, The Lottery Corporation, Rush Street Interactive, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is La Française des Jeux Société anonyme stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €21.65, calculated fair value €24.57 (+14%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FDJ calculated?
We run La Française des Jeux Société anonyme through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €24.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. La Française des Jeux Société anonyme currently trades 14 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €21.65. Our model-based fair value is €24.57, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with La Française des Jeux Société anonyme right now?
A fairly wide model range (€17.20 to €33.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme
How large is the market capitalisation of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
The market capitalisation of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is €4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is 1.09 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
Earnings per share at La Française des Jeux Société anonyme are €0.9500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
The dividend yield of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is 9.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
The net margin of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is 11.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
The operating margin of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
Revenue at La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is growing +10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ)?
Earnings per share at La Française des Jeux Société anonyme are growing −78.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (FDJ) carry?
The net debt of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is €1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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