Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $256M
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
ACRE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +11.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($1.11 to $7.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.09 – $9.90 · fair‑value band $1.11 – $7.05 · the $4.87 price screens above the $3.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE) currently trades at $4.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.23, implying the stock looks roughly 33.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation generated revenue of $54.7M at a net margin of -36.3%. Revenue declined 88.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.8%. Net debt stands at $1.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.11 (bear case) to $7.05 (bull case); at $4.87, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -34%, ACRE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($9.09) versus Growth DCF ($2.57). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation, a specialty finance company, engages in the originating and investing in commercial real estate (CRE) loans and related investments in the United States. The company provides loan opportunities for the owners, operators, and sponsors of CRE properties.
Full company description
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation, a specialty finance company, engages in the originating and investing in commercial real estate (CRE) loans and related investments in the United States. The company provides loan opportunities for the owners, operators, and sponsors of CRE properties. Its investments includes senior mortgage loans, subordinate debt, preferred equity products, mezzanine loans, and other CRE investments, such as commercial mortgage-backed securities. It has elected and qualified to be taxed as a real estate investment trust for the United States federal income tax purposes under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986. Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation reported revenue of $85.3M in FY2025 versus $102M in FY2021, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$902K in FY2025.
ACRE screens 34% overvalued. Compare with Annaly Capital Management, Inc →
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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