New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. $22.00, price $8.43, upside +161.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.32 – $10.23 · fair‑value band $14.08 – $30.98 · the $8.43 price screens below the $22.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Adamas Trust, Inc. acquires, invests in, finances, and manages mortgage-related single-family and multifamily residential assets in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Investment Portfolio and Constructive.
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Adamas Trust, Inc. acquires, invests in, finances, and manages mortgage-related single-family and multifamily residential assets in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Investment Portfolio and Constructive. The Investment Portfolio segment manages a diversified portfolio primarily consisting of mortgage-related single-family and multifamily residential investments, including agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), non-agency RMBS, residential loans, such as business purpose loans, performing, re-performing, non-performing, and seasoned performing, multifamily loans, preferred equity investments, joint venture equity investments, multifamily investments, mezzanine lending, cross-collateralized mezzanine lending, and single-family rental. The Constructive segment is a business purpose loan lender specializing in rental and transitional loans for real estate investors; and origination and sale of loans. The company provides structured multi-family property investments; other mortgage-, residential housing- and credit-related assets and strategic investments; and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Adamas Trust, Inc. was formerly known as New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Adamas Trust, Inc. in September 2025. Adamas Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM) currently trades at $8.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.00, implying the stock looks roughly 61.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $33.01 per share, and 8 of the 11 models we run sit above the $8.43 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $6.52, and 3 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.08 (bear) to $30.98 (bull), the price of $8.43 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. reported revenue of $806M in FY2025 versus $380M in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was $149M in FY2025, compounding −6.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $841M · P/E ratio 7.2 · P/S ratio 1.33 · EPS (TTM) $1.17 · Dividend yield 10.6% · Net margin 18.5% · Return on equity 13.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 161%, ADAM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.08Fair Value $22.00Bull $30.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2048 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+44.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−45% → 17%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.8% a year for the price.
Compare New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+150% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)48% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)45% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.98× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADAM
Frequently asked questions
Is New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.00 versus a price of $8.43, about +161% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADAM?
Our model-based fair value for New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is $22.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.43.
What is the quality score of ADAM?
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.08, optimistic scenario $30.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.00, about +161% upside versus a price of $8.43 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $14.08, optimistic scenario $30.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $323M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. pay a dividend?
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +27.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADAM use?
Our models discount New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.25, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. that is +27.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. grew +40.3 % a year. The price currently implies +27.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (+27.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.32 %: that much free cash flow New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. it is $22.00 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.43. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ADAM trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.43, fair value $22.00, a gap of about +161% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADAM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.00). For New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. the two are $13.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. worth?
The market values New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. at about $841M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.43; our models calculate a fair value of $22.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADAM?
Our models span a range for New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.: cautious scenario $14.08, base $22.00, optimistic $30.98 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADAM?
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 0.6, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 27.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ADAM?
The PEG ratio of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is 2.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
Balance-sheet figures for New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.0%, debt of 2.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADAM from its 52-week high?
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. trades at $8.43, about 18% below its 52-week high of $10.23 and 37% above the low of $6.17 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.43, calculated fair value $22.00 (+161%), Quality Score 55/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADAM calculated?
We run New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. currently trades 161 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.43. Our model-based fair value is $22.00, about +161% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($14.08 to $30.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
The market capitalisation of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is $841M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is 1.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
Earnings per share at New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. are $1.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
The dividend yield of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is 10.6% (payout 76.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
The net margin of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is 18.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is −0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
The operating margin of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is 44.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
Revenue at New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is growing +10.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +80.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM)?
Earnings per share at New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. are growing +21.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (ADAM) carry?
The net debt of New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is $10.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 85.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026