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adidas AG (ADDDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of adidas AG $132, price $162, upside -18.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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AA
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
adidas AG
ADDDF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $132.34 · Overvalued (−18.2%)
✓Quality 62/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!1.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 58/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $88.15 – $384.01 · fair‑value band $74.75 – $198.79 · the $161.76 price screens above the $132.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
adidas AG, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, produces, and markets a range of athletic and sports lifestyle products in Europe, Greater China, Japan, South Korea, Latin America, North America, and internationally.
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adidas AG, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, produces, and markets a range of athletic and sports lifestyle products in Europe, Greater China, Japan, South Korea, Latin America, North America, and internationally. The company offers footwear and apparel, as well as accessories and gear, including bags, balls, sunglasses, and fitness equipment under the adidas brand; golf footwear and apparel under the adidas Golf brand; and outdoor footwear under the Five Ten brand. It sells its products through its own retail stores, mono-branded franchise stores, shop-in-shops, joint ventures with retail partners, and co-branded stores, as well as through its wholesale and e-commerce platforms. The company was formerly known as adidas-Salomon AG and changed its name to adidas AG in June 2006. adidas AG was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Herzogenaurach, Germany.
Stock analysis
adidas AG (ADDDF) currently trades at $161.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $132.34, 18.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $165.84 per share, and 6 of the 25 models we run sit above the $161.76 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $26.05, and 19 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $74.75 (bear) to $198.79 (bull), the price of $161.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
adidas AG reported revenue of €24.8B in FY2025 versus €21.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was €1.3B in FY2025, compounding −10.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $33.3B · P/E ratio 18.2 · P/S ratio 0.98 · EPS (TTM) $8.91 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 22.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 49% fair-value upside, at −18%, ADDDF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $74.75
Fair Value $132.34
Bull $198.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.62 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$28.18
$42.58
$63.11
80
Growth DCF
$29.13
$42.51
$60.79
78
Owner Earnings
$143.86
$209.63
$303.42
76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$28.18
$42.58
$63.11
80
Owner Earnings
$143.86
$209.63
$303.42
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$78.66
$135.06
$205.64
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$108.90
$188.85
$279.10
74
5Y P/E Exit
$85.80
$147.75
$209.89
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$56.02
$102.85
$162.57
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$78.34
$139.20
$216.10
67
10Y P/E Exit
$63.89
$111.42
$165.67
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$57.84
$135.73
$174.65
65
PEG = 1.0
$23.28
$33.26
$43.24
57
EPV
$107.90
$126.59
$142.94
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$20.81
$35.73
$53.91
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$20.81
$30.81
$41.85
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$140.35
$187.13
$233.91
63
P/S Multiple
$108.45
$144.60
$180.75
58
P/B Multiple
$108.45
$144.60
$180.75
55
EV/EBIT
$172.38
$231.25
$290.12
66
EV/EBITDA
$177.55
$238.14
$298.74
67
EV/Revenue
$114.82
$165.84
$216.86
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$19.44
$26.05
$38.88
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$29.13
$42.51
$60.79
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$78.66
$134.52
$193.60
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$51.23
$62.59
$93.93
75
ROIC Compounder
$112.44
$137.89
$164.62
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$105.85
$151.21
$196.57
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
62/100
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Profitability
70
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
30
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
53/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+22.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 8%
2025 sits 95% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.6% a year for the price and +4.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.7%
ADDDF screens overvalued: fair value 18% below the price. Compare with NIKE, Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- NIKE vs. adidas: Which Athletic Giant Has the Stronger Market Position?
- Is Adidas (XTRA:ADS) Losing Ground In Soccer To A New Rival?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 89 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc NKE | $35.15 | $34.38 | −2% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $78.36 | $176.31 | +125% |
| On Holding ONON | $29.96 | $26.80 | −11% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥10.84 | ¥27.10 | +150% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $122.63 | $281.25 | +129% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥34.18 | ¥50.95 | +49% |
| Birkenstock Holding BIRK | $33.60 | $50.10 | +49% |
| PUMA SE PUM | €22.36 | €10.58 | −53% |
| Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO | $44.90 | $12.34 | −73% |
| Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited 0551 | HK$12.60 | HK$31.67 | +151% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is adidas AG (ADDDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $132.34 versus a price of $161.76, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADDDF?
Our model-based fair value for adidas AG is $132.34 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $161.76.
What is the quality score of ADDDF?
adidas AG has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for adidas AG (ADDDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $132.34 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $74.75, optimistic scenario $198.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the adidas AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $132.34, about −18% upside versus a price of $161.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $74.75, optimistic scenario $198.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
adidas AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €25.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does adidas AG pay a dividend?
adidas AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into adidas AG (ADDDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, adidas AG would have to grow free cash flow by +41.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADDDF use?
Our models discount adidas AG at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For adidas AG that is +41.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has adidas AG (ADDDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at adidas AG grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies +41.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of adidas AG (ADDDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into adidas AG (+41.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.07 %: that much free cash flow adidas AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For adidas AG it is $132.34 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $161.76. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is adidas AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, ADDDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $161.76, fair value $132.34, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADDDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($161.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($132.34). For adidas AG the two are $29.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is adidas AG worth?
The market values adidas AG at about $33.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $161.76; our models calculate a fair value of $132.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADDDF?
Our models span a range for adidas AG: cautious scenario $74.75, base $132.34, optimistic $198.79 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $161.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADDDF?
adidas AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $132.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 5.4, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 13.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ADDDF?
The PEG ratio of adidas AG is 0.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for adidas AG (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 22.9%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADDDF from its 52-week high?
adidas AG trades at $161.76, about 27% below its 52-week high of $220.57 and 12% above the low of $143.81 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $132.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to adidas AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, On Holding, Zhejiang China Commodities City Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is adidas AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $161.76, calculated fair value $132.34 (−18%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADDDF calculated?
We run adidas AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $132.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. adidas AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $161.76. Our model-based fair value is $132.34, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with adidas AG right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($74.75 to $198.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of adidas AG
How large is the market capitalisation of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
The market capitalisation of adidas AG is $33.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of adidas AG is 0.98 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
Earnings per share at adidas AG are $8.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
The dividend yield of adidas AG is 1.7% (payout 31.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
The net margin of adidas AG is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of adidas AG is 22.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of adidas AG is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of adidas AG (ADDDF)?
The operating margin of adidas AG is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at adidas AG (ADDDF)?
Revenue at adidas AG is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at adidas AG (ADDDF)?
Earnings per share at adidas AG are growing +13.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does adidas AG (ADDDF) carry?
The net debt of adidas AG is €1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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