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ADF Group (ADFJF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ADF Group $11.21, price $10.04, upside +11.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
ADF Group
ADFJF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $11.21 · Undervalued (+11.7%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.4% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 58/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3900 – $14.73 · fair‑value band $8.40 – $14.01 · the $10.04 price screens below the $11.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
ADF Group Inc. engages in the design and engineering of connections including industrial coatings in Canada and the United States. It also fabricates and installs complex steel structures; heavy steel built up components; and miscellaneous and architectural metalwork services.
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ADF Group Inc. engages in the design and engineering of connections including industrial coatings in Canada and the United States. It also fabricates and installs complex steel structures; heavy steel built up components; and miscellaneous and architectural metalwork services. In addition, the company offers products and services for various segments of the non-residential construction industry, such as office towers and high-rises, commercial and recreational buildings, airport facilities, industrial complexes, and transport infrastructures and energy. Further, it operates in the field of machining, welding and industrial mechanics and offers design, fabrication, and installation of welded steel structures; and customized overhead crane solutions for heavy industry. It serves general contractors, project owners, engineering firms and project architects, structural steel erectors, and other steel structure fabricators. The company was formerly known as Les Entreprises El Drago Ltée and changed its name to ADF Group Inc. in August 1998. ADF Group Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Terrebonne, Canada.
Stock analysis
ADF Group (ADFJF) currently trades at $10.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.21, implying the stock looks roughly 10.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $12.96 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $10.04 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.04, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.40 (bear) to $14.01 (bull), the price of $10.04 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ADF Group reported revenue of C$259M in FY2026 versus C$173M in FY2022, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$26.4M in FY2026, compounding +40.0%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $316M · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 1.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.7500 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 16.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −57% fair-value upside, at 12%, ADFJF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.40
Fair Value $11.21
Bull $14.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4766 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$10.27
$14.73
$20.76
79
Growth DCF
$10.31
$14.15
$19.00
78
Owner Earnings
$6.92
$9.81
$13.73
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$10.27
$14.73
$20.76
79
Owner Earnings
$6.92
$9.81
$13.73
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$8.35
$12.23
$17.11
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$8.82
$13.11
$18.06
74
5Y P/E Exit
$8.94
$13.34
$17.93
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$8.86
$12.40
$17.06
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$9.30
$12.96
$17.73
68
10Y P/E Exit
$9.37
$13.11
$17.64
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$4.43
$14.44
$19.30
62
Lynch FV
$3.23
$4.62
$6.01
58
PEG = 1.0
$3.23
$4.62
$6.01
55
EPV
$6.06
$6.79
$7.40
72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.2200
$0.4000
$0.5500
65
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.2200
$0.3500
$0.4200
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$8.30
$11.06
$13.83
61
P/S Multiple
$7.20
$9.60
$12.00
56
P/B Multiple
$8.30
$11.06
$13.83
53
EV/EBIT
$10.20
$13.37
$16.54
65
EV/EBITDA
$8.77
$11.46
$14.15
66
EV/Revenue
$7.42
$10.30
$13.18
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.27
$3.04
$4.54
52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$10.31
$14.15
$19.00
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$8.35
$12.31
$16.95
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.22
$4.98
$6.76
75
ROIC Compounder
$6.33
$7.57
$8.96
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$7.16
$10.23
$13.30
66
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
63/100
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Profitability
49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+34.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+34.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.34.5% vs 34.2%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 14%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.0% a year for the price.
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Compare ADF Group with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 252 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATI Inc ATI | $185.48 | $46.88 | −75% |
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $396.84 | $140.67 | −65% |
| Mueller Industries, Inc MLI | $60.97 | $59.41 | −3% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,008 | ₹398.69 | −80% |
| Aurubis AG NDA | €167.90 | €109.89 | −35% |
| Commercial Metals Company CMC | $65.73 | $13.01 | −80% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥8.66 | ¥11.28 | +30% |
| SINOMACH HEAVY EQUIPMENT GROUP CO.,LTD researches, 601399 | ¥3.15 | ¥1.35 | −57% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥25.29 | ¥5.04 | −80% |
| Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 | ¥51.33 | ¥24.43 | −52% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ADF Group (ADFJF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.21 versus a price of $10.04, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADFJF?
Our model-based fair value for ADF Group is $11.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.04.
What is the quality score of ADFJF?
ADF Group has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ADF Group (ADFJF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.40, optimistic scenario $14.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ADF Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.21, about +12% upside versus a price of $10.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.40, optimistic scenario $14.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
ADF Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$302M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does ADF Group pay a dividend?
ADF Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ADF Group (ADFJF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ADF Group would have to grow free cash flow by -0.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADFJF use?
Our models discount ADF Group at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ADF Group that is -0.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ADF Group (ADFJF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ADF Group grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies -0.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ADF Group (ADFJF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ADF Group (-0.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.88 %: that much free cash flow ADF Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ADF Group it is $11.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $10.04. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ADF Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ADFJF trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.04, fair value $11.21, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADFJF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.21). For ADF Group the two are $1.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ADF Group worth?
The market values ADF Group at about $316M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $10.04; our models calculate a fair value of $11.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADFJF?
Our models span a range for ADF Group: cautious scenario $8.40, base $11.21, optimistic $14.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $10.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADFJF?
ADF Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ADF Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.3%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADFJF from its 52-week high?
ADF Group trades at $10.04, about 22% below its 52-week high of $12.90 and 112% above the low of $4.74 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ADF Group?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ADF Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $10.04, calculated fair value $11.21 (+12%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADFJF calculated?
We run ADF Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ADF Group currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $10.04. Our model-based fair value is $11.21, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ADF Group right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of ADF Group (ADFJF) come from?
Earnings per share at ADF Group grew +47.3 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.1 %, EBIT margin +22.9 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ADF Group
How large is the market capitalisation of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
The market capitalisation of ADF Group is $316M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ADF Group is 1.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
Earnings per share at ADF Group are $0.7500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
The dividend yield of ADF Group is 0.4% (payout 5.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
The net margin of ADF Group is 10.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ADF Group is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ADF Group is 13.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ADF Group (ADFJF)?
The operating margin of ADF Group is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ADF Group (ADFJF)?
Revenue at ADF Group is growing +78.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ADF Group (ADFJF)?
Earnings per share at ADF Group are growing +38.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does ADF Group (ADFJF) hold?
ADF Group holds more cash than debt, C$21.1M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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