Adler Group (ADJ) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · DE · Market cap €20.5M
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from €0.3690 to €0.3380 (−8.4%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −6.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 156% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (21/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€0.2520). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (€0.2520 to €0.5030) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.1102 – €26.22 · fair‑value band €0.2520 – €0.5030 · the €0.1320 price screens below the €0.3380 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Adler Group (ADJ) currently trades at €0.1320, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.3380, implying the stock looks roughly 156.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Adler Group generated revenue of €481M at a net margin of -69.9%. It earns a return on equity of -42.5%. Net debt stands at €3.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €0.2520 (bear case) to €0.5030 (bull case); at €0.1320, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -2% fair-value upside, at 156%, ADJ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 19 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Adler Group S.A. engages in the purchase, development, and management of multi-family residential real estate properties in Germany. It operates through Residential property Management, Privatisation, Adler RE, and Consus segments.
Full company description
Adler Group S.A. engages in the purchase, development, and management of multi-family residential real estate properties in Germany. It operates through Residential property Management, Privatisation, Adler RE, and Consus segments. The company is involved in renting and managing residential properties, including modernization and maintenance of properties, management of tenancy agreements, and marketing of residential units. It also engages in holding, operation, and sale of residential and commercial units; modernization, maintenance, and management of non-vacant units; and development of urban middle-income houses, as well as invests in residential properties. The company was formerly known as ADO Properties S.A. and changed its name to Adler Group S.A. in September 2020. Adler Group S.A. was founded in 2006 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Adler Group reported revenue of €317M in FY2025 versus €1.1B in FY2021, a compound −27.4%/yr. Reported net income was −€487M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 520 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
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| KE Holdings 2423 | HK$44.76 | HK$18.03 | -60% |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$23.90 | HK$18.75 | -22% |
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,725 CLP | 5,571 CLP | +50% |
| SAGAA SAGAA | kr 170.00 | kr 75.55 | -56% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,324 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +28% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 372.00 IDR | 1,208 IDR | +225% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 20,975 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -9% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,530 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -2% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 3,998 ARS | +60% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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