Adtran Networks SE (ADV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Adtran Networks SE stock €19.70, price €22.10, that is 10.9% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.79 – €23.40 · fair‑value band €13.62 – €27.22 · the €22.10 price screens above the €19.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Follow Adtran Networks in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Adtran Networks is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Adtran Networks SE develops, manufactures, and sells optical and Ethernet-based networking solutions for telecommunications carriers and enterprises. It provides its solutions to deliver data, storage, voice, and video services.
Show moreShow less
The company offers open optical networking products, such as open line systems, optical terminals, pluggable optics, management and control, and ALM fiber monitoring; access and aggregation switches and routers, optical line terminals, network management and automation, cabinets and enclosures, and ALM PON monitoring; residential, business, and wholesale subscriber solutions; and automation and insight solutions comprising management and orchestration, and network and subscriber insights.
It also provides network infrastructure assurance which includes ALM fiber and PON monitoring; timing and synchronization; and global, consulting and education, deployment, cloud and software, support, and training services.
In addition, the company offers cloud interconnect solutions, including DWDM optics, secure data transport, thin transponders, and MicroMux Quattro; and optical networking solutions that include purpose-built plugs and intelligent control.
It serves Altnets, Cable MSOs, municipal broadband solutions, telcos, and utilities industries. The company operates in Germany, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific.
The company was formerly known as ADVA Optical Networking SE and changed its name to Adtran Networks SE in June 2023. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. Adtran Networks SE operates as a subsidiary of ADTRAN Holdings, Inc.
Stock analysis
Adtran Networks SE (ADV) currently trades at €22.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €19.70, 10.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €19.70 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the €22.10 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €16.86, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €13.62 (bear) to €27.22 (bull), the price of €22.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Adtran Networks SE reported revenue of €482M in FY2025 versus €603M in FY2021, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€21.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €1.2B Small · P/E ratio 170.0 · P/S ratio 2.26 · EPS (TTM) €0.1300 · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −11%, ADV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€13.62Fair Value €19.70Bull€27.22
Price €22.10 · Downside -10.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1090 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.9% (2020) → −4.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 299 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−10.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Return on assets−3.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)21.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Adtran Networks SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADV.XETRA
Frequently asked questions
Is Adtran Networks SE (ADV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €19.70 versus a price of €22.10, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ADV?
Our model-based fair value for Adtran Networks SE is €19.70 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €22.10.
What is the quality score of ADV?
Adtran Networks SE has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €19.70 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario €13.62, optimistic scenario €27.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Adtran Networks SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €19.70, about 11% lower versus a price of €22.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €13.62, optimistic scenario €27.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
Adtran Networks SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €509M (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Adtran Networks SE would have to grow free cash flow by +6.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.1 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADV use?
Our models discount Adtran Networks SE at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Adtran Networks SE that is +6.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Adtran Networks SE (ADV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Adtran Networks SE grew -3.1 % a year. The price currently implies +6.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Adtran Networks SE (ADV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Adtran Networks SE (+6.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.88 %: that much free cash flow Adtran Networks SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Adtran Networks SE it is €19.70 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of €22.10. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Adtran Networks SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, ADV trades above its calculated fair value: price €22.10, fair value €19.70, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€22.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€19.70). For Adtran Networks SE the two are €2.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Adtran Networks SE worth?
The market values Adtran Networks SE at about €1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is €22.10; our models calculate a fair value of €19.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADV?
Our models span a range for Adtran Networks SE: cautious scenario €13.62, base €19.70, optimistic €27.22 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price €22.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADV?
Adtran Networks SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 170.0 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €19.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 3.0, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 37.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ADV?
The PEG ratio of Adtran Networks SE is 0.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Adtran Networks SE (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 1.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADV from its 52-week high?
Adtran Networks SE trades at €22.10, about 6% below its 52-week high of €23.40 and 6% above the low of €20.92 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €19.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Adtran Networks SE?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Motorola Solutions, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Adtran Networks SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price €22.10, calculated fair value €19.70 (−11%), Quality Score 68/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADV calculated?
We run Adtran Networks SE through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €19.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Adtran Networks SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was €22.10. Our model-based fair value is €19.70, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Adtran Networks SE right now?
A fairly wide model range (€13.62 to €27.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Adtran Networks SE
How large is the market capitalisation of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
The market capitalisation of Adtran Networks SE is €1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Adtran Networks SE is 2.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
Earnings per share at Adtran Networks SE are €0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 170.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
The net margin of Adtran Networks SE is 1.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Adtran Networks SE is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Adtran Networks SE is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
The operating margin of Adtran Networks SE is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
Revenue at Adtran Networks SE is growing +21.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Adtran Networks SE (ADV)?
Earnings per share at Adtran Networks SE are growing −57.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Adtran Networks SE (ADV) carry?
The net debt of Adtran Networks SE is €1.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Adtran Networks SE in the live analysis
One click puts Adtran Networks SE on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 1, 2026