Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. $14.00, price $15.80, upside -11.4%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty program management, training, franchise systems, and investment management services.
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Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty program management, training, franchise systems, and investment management services. Its network of destinations includes Mexico, the United States, South America, Central America, the Caribbean, Canada, Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1934 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO) currently trades at $15.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.00, implying the stock looks roughly 12.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $134.91 per share, and 21 of the 21 models we run sit above the $15.80 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $50.64, and 0 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $7.19 (bear) to $18.20 (bull), the price of $15.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. reported revenue of $5.4B in FY2025 versus $109M in FY2021, a compound +164.9%/yr. Reported net income was $352M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.6B · P/E ratio 0.7 · P/S ratio 0.05 · EPS (TTM) $22.46 · Net margin 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% · Operating margin 10.2% · Revenue (TTM) $5.5B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at −11%, AERO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.19Fair Value $14.00Bull $18.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($16.43 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−49.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−49.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−62% → 16%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 73.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.0% a year for the price.
Compare Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 60 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−11% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/FCF4.4× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)18· sector 61
FUTURE (revenue growth)67· sector 49
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 48
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AERO
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.00 versus a price of $15.80, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AERO?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is $14.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.80.
What is the quality score of AERO?
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.19, optimistic scenario $18.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.00, about −11% upside versus a price of $15.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.19, optimistic scenario $18.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. would have to grow free cash flow by -4.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -27.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AERO use?
Our models discount Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. that is -4.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. grew -27.3 % a year. The price currently implies -4.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (-4.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.59 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. it is $14.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $15.80. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AERO trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.80, fair value $14.00, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AERO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.00). For Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. the two are $1.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. worth?
The market values Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. at about $2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $15.80; our models calculate a fair value of $14.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AERO?
Our models span a range for Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.: cautious scenario $7.19, base $14.00, optimistic $18.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $15.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AERO?
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.00 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $15.80, calculated fair value $14.00 (−11%), Quality Score 33/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AERO calculated?
We run Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $15.80. Our model-based fair value is $14.00, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. right now?
A fairly wide model range ($7.19 to $18.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is $2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is 0.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. are $22.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
The net margin of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is 6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
The operating margin of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
Revenue at Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is growing +13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. are growing −56.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is $3.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026