Montana Aerospace AG (AERO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Montana Aerospace AG stock CHF 6.27, price CHF 23.35, that is 73.1% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 10.10 – CHF 40.45 · fair‑value band CHF 4.70 – CHF 8.55 · the CHF 23.35 price screens above the CHF 6.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Montana Aerospace AG design, develop, and manufacture system components and complex assemblies worldwide and complex assemblies worldwide. The company operates through Aerostructures and Alpine Metal Tech segments.
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It manufactures mission-critical components for aviation and space applications, which includes structural components for fuselage, wings, and landing gear; critical engine parts exposed to thermal and mechanical stresses; and large-format extrusion products, as well as high-precision titanium and aluminum components.
The company also provides customized high-tech solutions for the steel, automotive, aerospace industries.
In addition, it provides machines and automation solutions for machining, production control/optimization, testing, handling, and surface inspection of aluminum wheels for the aerospace, automotive, railway, and steel industries.
Montana Aerospace AG was founded in 1814 and is headquartered in Reinach, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Montana Aerospace AG (AERO) currently trades at CHF 23.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 6.27, 73% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of CHF 10.38 per share, and 1 of the 23 models we run sit above the CHF 23.35 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at CHF 2.44, and 22 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: CHF 4.70 (bear) to CHF 8.55 (bull), the price of CHF 23.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Montana Aerospace AG reported revenue of €986M in FY2025 versus €762M in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was €20.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 1.5B Small · P/E ratio 35.9 · P/S ratio 0.75 · EPS (TTM) CHF 0.6500 · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −73%, AERO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 4.70Fair Value CHF 6.27BullCHF 8.55
Price CHF 23.35 · Downside -73.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 0.5574 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−34.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.5% (2020) → 4.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.3% a year for the price and +6.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−71.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)35.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)19· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)7· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Montana Aerospace AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AERO
Frequently asked questions
Is Montana Aerospace AG (AERO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 6.27 versus a price of CHF 23.35, about 73% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AERO?
Our model-based fair value for Montana Aerospace AG is CHF 6.27 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 23.35.
What is the quality score of AERO?
Montana Aerospace AG has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 6.27 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 4.70, optimistic scenario CHF 8.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Montana Aerospace AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 6.27, about 73% lower versus a price of CHF 23.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 4.70, optimistic scenario CHF 8.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
Montana Aerospace AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €997M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Montana Aerospace AG would have to grow free cash flow by +20.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.3 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AERO use?
Our models discount Montana Aerospace AG at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.96, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Montana Aerospace AG that is +20.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Montana Aerospace AG (AERO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Montana Aerospace AG grew +13.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +20.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Montana Aerospace AG (+20.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.61 %: that much free cash flow Montana Aerospace AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Montana Aerospace AG it is CHF 6.27 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of CHF 23.35. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Montana Aerospace AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, AERO trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 23.35, fair value CHF 6.27, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AERO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 23.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 6.27). For Montana Aerospace AG the two are CHF 17.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Montana Aerospace AG worth?
The market values Montana Aerospace AG at about CHF 1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is CHF 23.35; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 6.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AERO?
Our models span a range for Montana Aerospace AG: cautious scenario CHF 4.70, base CHF 6.27, optimistic CHF 8.55 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price CHF 23.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AERO?
Montana Aerospace AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 6.27 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Montana Aerospace AG (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 1.8%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AERO from its 52-week high?
Montana Aerospace AG trades at CHF 23.35, about 33% below its 52-week high of CHF 34.90 and 14% above the low of CHF 20.45 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 6.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Montana Aerospace AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Montana Aerospace AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price CHF 23.35, calculated fair value CHF 6.27 (−73%), Quality Score 51/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AERO calculated?
We run Montana Aerospace AG through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of CHF 6.27 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Montana Aerospace AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was CHF 23.35. Our model-based fair value is CHF 6.27, about 73% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Montana Aerospace AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 8.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (CHF 4.70 to CHF 8.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Montana Aerospace AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
The market capitalisation of Montana Aerospace AG is CHF 1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Montana Aerospace AG is 0.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
Earnings per share at Montana Aerospace AG are CHF 0.6500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
The net margin of Montana Aerospace AG is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Montana Aerospace AG is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Montana Aerospace AG is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
The operating margin of Montana Aerospace AG is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
Revenue at Montana Aerospace AG is growing +3.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Montana Aerospace AG (AERO)?
Earnings per share at Montana Aerospace AG are growing +102% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Montana Aerospace AG (AERO) carry?
The net debt of Montana Aerospace AG is €113M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026