EN DE

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $2.6B · ISIN US40054J1097

What is Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. really worth?

GA Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. logo Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. AERO · US
Price$15.79
Fair Value$71.01
Upside+349.7%
Quality33/100

Below-average quality, trading 78% below our fair value of $71.01.

As of Aug 29, 2026, the fair value of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is $71.01 per share against a price of $15.79, so the fair value sits 350% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

Watch Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

Strengths

✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (6/9)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −27.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.2% net margin
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range $38.11 – $108.31

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price −2.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($38.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($38.11 to $108.31). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (10 months)

$22.91 $12.36 Fair Value $71.01 Nov 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

10‑month range $12.36 – $22.91 · fair‑value band $38.11 – $108.31 · the $15.79 price screens below the $71.01 fair value. As of Aug 29, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO) currently trades at $15.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $71.01, implying the stock looks roughly 77.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $110.40 per share, and 21 of the 21 models we run sit above the $15.79 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $50.64, and 0 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. generated revenue of $5.5B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue grew 13.3% year over year. Net debt stands at $3.0B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 0.7. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $38.11 (bear case) to $108.31 (bull case); at $15.79, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 350%, AERO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $15.32 per share, which is 32.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV best evidence $29.45 $36.90 $43.32 74
FCF DCF $46.62 $81.33 $189.52 71
Growth DCF $42.71 $97.26 $185.16 71
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $46.62 $81.33 $189.52 71
Owner Earnings $58.54 $151.23 $338.68 67
5Y Revenue Exit $37.32 $77.99 $163.16 65
5Y EBITDA Exit $78.33 $160.88 $323.10 68
5Y P/E Exit $28.74 $79.47 $147.47 64
10Y Revenue Exit $38.94 $107.29 $151.02 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $70.20 $193.57 $413.63 60
10Y P/E Exit $34.83 $89.25 $176.07 57
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $16.40 $114.36 $160.49 61
Lynch FV $59.08 $84.41 $109.73 59
PEG = 1.0 $59.08 $84.41 $109.73 55
EPV best evidence $29.45 $36.90 $43.32 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $37.98 $50.64 $63.30 63
P/S Multiple $30.75 $41.00 $51.25 58
EV/EBIT $55.77 $80.26 $104.74 65
EV/EBITDA $87.45 $122.49 $157.54 67
EV/Revenue $28.61 $48.45 $68.29 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $42.71 $97.26 $185.16 71
Rev-Margin DCF $43.08 $91.74 $193.51 65
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $43.29 $74.08 $113.86 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $77.28 $110.40 $143.52 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($110.40) versus Multiples ($50.64). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

Notify me when AERO reaches fair value

Put AERO on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.

Set up alert →

Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 0.7
P/S ratio 0.05 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $22.46 price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.7
Net margin 6.6% FY2025
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.2% TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $5.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +13.3% 3y avg +12.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −56.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $590M FY2025
Net debt $3.0B FY2025 · ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty program management, training, franchise systems, and investment management services.

Full company description

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers loyalty program management, training, franchise systems, and investment management services. Its network of destinations includes Mexico, the United States, South America, Central America, the Caribbean, Canada, Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1934 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. reported revenue of $5.4B in FY2025 versus $109M in FY2021, a compound +164.9%/yr. Reported net income was $352M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 38/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$5.4B
Latest YoY
−4.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−27.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.4%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−49.6% · in USD
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−49.6%
Dividend yield0.0%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−61.8% (2020) → 15.7% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop320% (2018) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 73.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue +164.9%/yr
FY21 $109M
FY22 $3.8B
FY23 $4.9B
FY24 $5.6B
FY25 $5.4B
Net income
FY21 −$49.6M
FY22 −$64.2M
FY23 $273M
FY24 $617M
FY25 $352M

Watch AERO: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
Share or link this analysis
𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. · Fair Value
$71.01 +78%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AERO.US

Peer Group

Airlines · 57 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 13% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 57
FUTURE67 · sector 51
PAST0 · sector 48
HEALTH100 · sector 69
DIVIDEND0 · sector 48

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $80.07 $115.82 +45%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $110.60 $175.62 +59%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €25.47 €41.26 +62%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $38.73 $14.76 −62%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,166 ₹3,073 −41%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.09 SGD 7.89 SGD +11%
Air China Limited 601111 ¥5.94 ¥7.16 +21%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $52.50 $106.79 +103%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥5.08 ¥1.28 −75%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA €7.99 €18.94 +137%

Compare Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Industrials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Try a ready-made strategy

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screener Filter by region, size and sector Compare tool Two stocks side by side Extrinsic Value Calculator (Options) Splits an option premium into intrinsic and extrinsic (time) value. Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula & Calculator Apply Peter Lynch's fair value formula in seconds: fair P/E ≈ earnings growth (+ dividend) - free, with formula and example.

Frequently asked questions

Is Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $71.01 versus a price of $15.79, about +350% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AERO?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is $71.01 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.79.
What is the quality score of AERO?
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $71.01 (as of Aug 29, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $38.11, optimistic scenario $108.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $71.01, about +350% upside versus a price of $15.79 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $38.11, optimistic scenario $108.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO)?
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AERO?
The net profit margin of Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Free · no account needed

Watch Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. in the live analysis

One click puts Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.