Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 9, 2026: fair value of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V MXN 121, price MXN 167, upside -27.3%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.4400 MXN – 373.87 MXN · fair‑value band 89.51 MXN – 162.21 MXN · the 167.00 MXN price screens above the 121.35 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provides commercial aviation services for passengers and cargo. It provides services to 43 destinations in Mexico and 42 international destinations from Mexico. The company also promotes passenger loyalty programs.
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Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provides commercial aviation services for passengers and cargo. It provides services to 43 destinations in Mexico and 42 international destinations from Mexico. The company also promotes passenger loyalty programs. As of July 19, 2019, it had a fleet of 122 airplanes that include Boeing 787 and 737 jet airliners and Embraer 170 and 190 models. The company was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX) currently trades at 167.00 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 121.35 MXN, 27.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1,211 MXN per share, and 19 of the 19 models we run sit above the 167.00 MXN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 388.95 MXN, and 0 of the 19 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 89.51 MXN (bear) to 162.21 MXN (bull), the price of 167.00 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of $5.4B in FY2025 versus $45.5B in FY2021, a compound −41.4%/yr. Reported net income was $352M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 22.8B MXN (≈ $1.3B) · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) −129.63 MXN · Net margin 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% · Operating margin 0.4% · Revenue growth (YoY) +61.7% · Free cash flow 527M MXN.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −27%, AEROMEX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 89.51 MXNFair Value 121.35 MXNBull 162.21 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −19.5% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−61.8% (2020) → 15.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−1.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−19.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth61.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
PEG1.20× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)28· sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 73
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 49
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AEROMEX
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 121.35 MXN versus the last price from Jul 9, 2026 of 167.00 MXN, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AEROMEX?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V is 121.35 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 9, 2026): 167.00 MXN.
What is the quality score of AEROMEX?
Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 121.35 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario 89.51 MXN, optimistic scenario 162.21 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 121.35 MXN, about −27% upside versus the last price from Jul 9, 2026 of 167.00 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 89.51 MXN, optimistic scenario 162.21 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -28.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AEROMEX use?
Our models discount Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V grew -28.4 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.22 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V it is 121.35 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 167.00 MXN. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AEROMEX trades above its calculated fair value: price 167.00 MXN, fair value 121.35 MXN, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AEROMEX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (167.00 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (121.35 MXN). For Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V the two are 45.65 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V at about 22.8B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 167.00 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 121.35 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AEROMEX?
Our models span a range for Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 89.51 MXN, base 121.35 MXN, optimistic 162.21 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 167.00 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AEROMEX?
The PEG ratio of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V is 1.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AEROMEX from its 52-week high?
Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V trades at 167.00 MXN, at its 52-week high of 167.00 MXN and at the low of 167.00 MXN (as of Jul 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 121.35 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 167.00 MXN, calculated fair value 121.35 MXN (−27%), Quality Score 35/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AEROMEX calculated?
We run Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 121.35 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 9, 2026 and stands at 167.00 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 121.35 MXN, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (162.21 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (89.51 MXN to 162.21 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V is 22.8B MXN (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V is 0.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V are −129.63 MXN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
The net margin of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V is 6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
The operating margin of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX)?
Revenue at Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V is growing +61.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V (AEROMEX) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Aeroméxico S.A.B. de C.V is 102M MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026