AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AGNC Investment Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.71 – $25.98 · fair‑value band $18.65 – $50.26 · the $25.82 price screens below the $27.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States. It invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency.
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AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States. It invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal or state corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp. and changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp. in September 2016. AGNC Investment Corp. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
Stock analysis
AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN) currently trades at $25.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.80, implying the stock looks roughly 7.1% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $50.67 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the $25.82 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $17.38, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $18.65 (bear) to $50.26 (bull), the price of $25.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AGNC Investment Corp reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $837M in FY2021, a compound +22.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +22.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.9B · P/S ratio 5.52 · EPS (TTM) $−1.86 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 87.3% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin 130%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 8%, AGNCN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $18.65Fair Value $27.80Bull $50.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+79.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.6%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 3%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.89% → 236%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+55.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)92% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)130% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth546% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
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Is AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.80 versus a price of $25.82, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AGNCN?
Our model-based fair value for AGNC Investment Corp is $27.80 (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.82.
What is the quality score of AGNCN?
AGNC Investment Corp has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.80 (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.65, optimistic scenario $50.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AGNC Investment Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.80, about +8% upside versus a price of $25.82 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $18.65, optimistic scenario $50.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
AGNC Investment Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
Does AGNC Investment Corp pay a dividend?
AGNC Investment Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AGNC Investment Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +55.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 6 years revenue grew +16.3 % per year. As of Sep 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGNCN use?
Our models discount AGNC Investment Corp at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AGNC Investment Corp that is +55.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN) delivered so far?
Over the past 6 years revenue at AGNC Investment Corp grew +16.3 % a year. The price currently implies +55.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AGNC Investment Corp (+55.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.47 %: that much free cash flow AGNC Investment Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AGNC Investment Corp it is $27.80 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of $25.82. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AGNC Investment Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, AGNCN trades below its calculated fair value: price $25.82, fair value $27.80, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGNCN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.80). For AGNC Investment Corp the two are $1.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AGNC Investment Corp worth?
The market values AGNC Investment Corp at about $8.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is $25.82; our models calculate a fair value of $27.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGNCN?
Our models span a range for AGNC Investment Corp: cautious scenario $18.65, base $27.80, optimistic $50.26 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price $25.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
Balance-sheet figures for AGNC Investment Corp (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGNCN from its 52-week high?
AGNC Investment Corp trades at $25.82, about 0% below its 52-week high of $25.94 and 11% above the low of $23.17 (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AGNC Investment Corp?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, Dynex Capital, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AGNC Investment Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price $25.82, calculated fair value $27.80 (+8%), Quality Score 35/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGNCN calculated?
We run AGNC Investment Corp through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $27.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AGNC Investment Corp currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $25.82. Our model-based fair value is $27.80, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AGNC Investment Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($18.65 to $50.26). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN) come from?
Earnings per share at AGNC Investment Corp grew −15.1 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −8.8 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AGNC Investment Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
The market capitalisation of AGNC Investment Corp is $8.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AGNC Investment Corp is 5.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
Earnings per share at AGNC Investment Corp are $−1.86. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
The dividend yield of AGNC Investment Corp is 5.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
The net margin of AGNC Investment Corp is 87.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AGNC Investment Corp is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AGNC Investment Corp is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
The operating margin of AGNC Investment Corp is 130% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
Revenue at AGNC Investment Corp is growing +546% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN)?
Earnings per share at AGNC Investment Corp are growing +772% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AGNC Investment Corp (AGNCN) carry?
The net debt of AGNC Investment Corp is $100B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 19, 2026