Two Harbors Investment Corp (TWO) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.3B
Two Harbors Investment Corp
TWO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 45% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.00 – $16.36 · fair‑value band $16.30 – $19.43 · the $12.12 price screens below the $17.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Two Harbors Investment Corp (TWO) currently trades at $12.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.56, implying the stock looks roughly 44.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Two Harbors Investment Corp generated revenue of $494M at a net margin of -69.5%. It earns a return on equity of -17.7%. Net debt stands at $7.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.30 (bear case) to $19.43 (bull case); at $12.12, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 45%, TWO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($33.92) versus Asset-Based ($11.40). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Two Harbors Investment Corp. invests in, finances, and manages mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and other financial assets through RoundPoint in the United States.
Full company description
Two Harbors Investment Corp. invests in, finances, and manages mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and other financial assets through RoundPoint in the United States. The company target assets include agency RMBS collateralized by fixed rate mortgage loans, adjustable rate mortgage loans, hybrid mortgage loans, or derivatives; and other assets, such as financial and mortgage-related assets, comprising non-agency securities and non-hedging transactions. It qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Saint Louis Park, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Two Harbors Investment Corp reported revenue of $606M in FY2025 versus $255M in FY2021, a compound +24.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$454M in FY2025.
Watch TWO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TWO Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- TWO Announces Third Quarter 2026 Stub Period Dividend on Common Stock
- All You Need to Know About Two Harbors Investments (TWO) Rating Upgrade to Strong Buy
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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