Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 24, 2026: fair value of Two Harbors Investments Corp $17.23, price $12.18, upside +41.5%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.00 – $16.36 · fair‑value band $16.02 – $19.03 · the $12.18 price screens below the $17.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Two Harbors Investment Corp. invests in, finances, and manages mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and other financial assets through RoundPoint in the United States.
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Two Harbors Investment Corp. invests in, finances, and manages mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and other financial assets through RoundPoint in the United States. The company target assets include agency RMBS collateralized by fixed rate mortgage loans, adjustable rate mortgage loans, hybrid mortgage loans, or derivatives; and other assets, such as financial and mortgage-related assets, comprising non-agency securities and non-hedging transactions. It qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Saint Louis Park, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO) currently trades at $12.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.23, implying the stock looks roughly 29.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $33.92 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $12.18 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.40, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $16.02 (bear) to $19.03 (bull), the price of $12.18 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Two Harbors Investments Corp reported revenue of $606M in FY2025 versus $255M in FY2021, a compound +24.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$454M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/S ratio 2.62 · EPS (TTM) $−3.81 · Dividend yield 11.6% · Net margin −75.0% · Return on equity −17.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% · Operating margin 27.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 63% fair-value upside, at 41%, TWO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.02Fair Value $17.23Bull $19.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−28.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+263.5%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
72.6% (2019) → 112.4% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Two Harbors Investments Corp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+41.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−2.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−69.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)11.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.72× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.71× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.23 versus the last price from Aug 24, 2026 of $12.18, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TWO?
Our model-based fair value for Two Harbors Investments Corp is $17.23 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 24, 2026): $12.18.
What is the quality score of TWO?
Two Harbors Investments Corp has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.23 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.02, optimistic scenario $19.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Two Harbors Investments Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.23, about +41% upside versus the last price from Aug 24, 2026 of $12.18 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $16.02, optimistic scenario $19.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
Two Harbors Investments Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $494M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Two Harbors Investments Corp pay a dividend?
Two Harbors Investments Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.58% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Two Harbors Investments Corp it is $17.23 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $12.18. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Two Harbors Investments Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TWO trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.18, fair value $17.23, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TWO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.23). For Two Harbors Investments Corp the two are $5.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Two Harbors Investments Corp worth?
The market values Two Harbors Investments Corp at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $12.18; our models calculate a fair value of $17.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TWO?
Our models span a range for Two Harbors Investments Corp: cautious scenario $16.02, base $17.23, optimistic $19.03 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $12.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TWO?
The PEG ratio of Two Harbors Investments Corp is 2.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Two Harbors Investments Corp (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −17.7%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TWO from its 52-week high?
Two Harbors Investments Corp trades at $12.18, about 11% below its 52-week high of $13.68 and 41% above the low of $8.64 (as of Aug 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Two Harbors Investments Corp?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Two Harbors Investments Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $12.18, calculated fair value $17.23 (+41%), Quality Score 30/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TWO calculated?
We run Two Harbors Investments Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Two Harbors Investments Corp currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 24, 2026 and stands at $12.18. Our model-based fair value is $17.23, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Two Harbors Investments Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (30/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.02). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Two Harbors Investments Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
The market capitalisation of Two Harbors Investments Corp is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Two Harbors Investments Corp is 2.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
Earnings per share at Two Harbors Investments Corp are $−3.81. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
The dividend yield of Two Harbors Investments Corp is 11.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
The net margin of Two Harbors Investments Corp is −75.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Two Harbors Investments Corp is −17.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Two Harbors Investments Corp is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
The operating margin of Two Harbors Investments Corp is 27.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
Revenue at Two Harbors Investments Corp is growing +15.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +264%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO)?
Earnings per share at Two Harbors Investments Corp are growing −76.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO) generate?
The free cash flow of Two Harbors Investments Corp is −$15.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Two Harbors Investments Corp (TWO) carry?
The net debt of Two Harbors Investments Corp is $7.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 27, 2026