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Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Aegean Airlines S.A $33.61, price $14.20, upside +136.7%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN GRS495003006

Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Aegean Airlines S.A

AGZNF · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $33.61 · Strongly undervalued (+136.7%)

!Quality 43/100

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +35.0 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 7.1% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

!Narrow moat 42/100

26 models, one by oneBear $24.03 to bull $55.58 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 43/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.72 – $16.85 · fair‑value band $24.03 – $55.58 · the $14.20 price screens below the $33.61 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Aegean Airlines S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an airline company that engages in the provision of public airline transportation services in Greece and internationally.

Aegean Airlines S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an airline company that engages in the provision of public airline transportation services in Greece and internationally. It transports passengers and cargo through scheduled and unscheduled flights; and offers aviation related services, aircraft technical support, and ground handling aircraft services. The company also offers charter flights; and imports, markets, and leases aircraft and spare parts. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.

Stock analysis

Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF) currently trades at $14.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.61, implying the stock looks roughly 57.8% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $41.10 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the $14.20 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.78, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $24.03 (bear) to $55.58 (bull), the price of $14.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Aegean Airlines S.A reported revenue of €1.9B in FY2025 versus €688M in FY2021, a compound +28.2%/yr. Reported net income was €148M in FY2025, compounding +134.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 7.4 · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) $1.91 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 23.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 137%, AGZNF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $24.03 Fair Value $33.61 Bull $55.58

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.44 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $24.20 $36.09 $53.70 80

Growth DCF $24.00 $34.65 $49.56 78

Owner Earnings $27.35 $41.16 $61.62 76

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $24.20 $36.09 $53.70 80

Owner Earnings $27.35 $41.16 $61.62 76

5Y Revenue Exit $24.33 $37.94 $56.09 72

5Y EBITDA Exit $38.31 $66.09 $100.61 74

5Y P/E Exit $28.52 $46.39 $66.41 70

10Y Revenue Exit $23.45 $35.52 $53.30 66

10Y EBITDA Exit $32.41 $54.11 $86.57 67

10Y P/E Exit $26.53 $41.10 $61.01 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $12.60 $53.90 $73.63 64

Lynch FV $13.78 $19.68 $25.59 61

PEG = 1.0 $13.78 $19.68 $25.59 57

EPV $18.14 $19.97 $21.49 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $7.03 $12.66 $17.43 68

DDM Multi-Stage $7.03 $11.57 $13.53 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $29.19 $38.92 $48.65 63

P/S Multiple $23.63 $31.51 $39.39 58

P/B Multiple $23.63 $31.51 $39.39 55

EV/EBIT $33.17 $42.64 $52.11 66

EV/EBITDA $51.34 $66.87 $82.39 67

EV/Revenue $25.03 $33.72 $42.41 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $3.57 $4.78 $7.13 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $24.00 $34.65 $49.56 78

Rev-Margin DCF $24.33 $37.71 $54.55 72

Economic Profit

Residual Income $9.83 $12.97 $21.85 73

ROIC Compounder $18.91 $21.71 $24.60 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $23.13 $33.05 $42.96 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 41

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 36

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 49

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 34

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 22

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 87

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 34

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 28

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 84

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+4.6%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+11.6%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+35.0%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year

Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+9.4%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+31.2%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+25.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.5% vs 6.6%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−51% → 10%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price

The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

−7.0%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+6.6%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.0% a year for the price and +4.3% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.4%

Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.4%

Projected 2028 (sales)+6.8%

Projected 2029 (sales)+6.1%

Projected 2030 (sales)+5.4%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 43 · Below median

Fair Value upside +77.5% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 23.7% · Top 25%

Return on assets 4.3% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 7.1% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) −1.6% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 4.8% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 5.7% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.49× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.4× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 2.24× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 0.68× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 14.9× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 3.3× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL	$84.13	$121.83	+45%
United Airlines Holdings UAL	$111.51	$149.61	+34%
Ryanair Holdings RYA	€23.79	€48.63	+104%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV	$42.28	$14.74	−65%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO	₹4,940	₹3,073	−38%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L	6.65 SGD	7.88 SGD	+18%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM	$52.45	$106.79	+104%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029	¥4.86	¥2.78	−43%
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293	HK$14.37	HK$31.02	+116%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA	€7.60	€9.90	+30%

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Aegean Airlines S.A · Fair Value
$33.61 +58%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aegean Airlines S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGZNF

Frequently asked questions

Is Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.61 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $14.20, about +137% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of AGZNF?

Our model-based fair value for Aegean Airlines S.A is $33.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $14.20.

What is the quality score of AGZNF?

Aegean Airlines S.A has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.03, optimistic scenario $55.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Aegean Airlines S.A stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $33.61, about +137% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $14.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $24.03, optimistic scenario $55.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

Aegean Airlines S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

Does Aegean Airlines S.A pay a dividend?

Aegean Airlines S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).

What growth is priced into Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aegean Airlines S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +35.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGZNF use?

Our models discount Aegean Airlines S.A at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aegean Airlines S.A that is -7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Aegean Airlines S.A grew +35.0 % a year. The price currently implies -7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aegean Airlines S.A (-7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.58 %: that much free cash flow Aegean Airlines S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aegean Airlines S.A it is $33.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.20. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Aegean Airlines S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, AGZNF trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.20, fair value $33.61, a gap of about +137% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of AGZNF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.61). For Aegean Airlines S.A the two are $19.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Aegean Airlines S.A worth?

The market values Aegean Airlines S.A at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.20; our models calculate a fair value of $33.61 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGZNF?

Our models span a range for Aegean Airlines S.A: cautious scenario $24.03, base $33.61, optimistic $55.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of AGZNF?

Aegean Airlines S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.3.

How solid is the balance sheet of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

Balance-sheet figures for Aegean Airlines S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 23.7%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is AGZNF from its 52-week high?

Aegean Airlines S.A trades at $14.20, about 16% below its 52-week high of $16.85 and at the low of $14.20 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.61 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Aegean Airlines S.A?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Aegean Airlines S.A stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.20, calculated fair value $33.61 (+137%), Quality Score 43/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of AGZNF calculated?

We run Aegean Airlines S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $33.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Aegean Airlines S.A currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $14.20. Our model-based fair value is $33.61, about +137% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Aegean Airlines S.A right now?

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($24.03). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($24.03 to $55.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Where does the earnings growth of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF) come from?

Earnings per share at Aegean Airlines S.A grew +8.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.4 %, EBIT margin +6.0 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Aegean Airlines S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

The market capitalisation of Aegean Airlines S.A is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Aegean Airlines S.A is 0.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

Earnings per share at Aegean Airlines S.A are $1.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

The dividend yield of Aegean Airlines S.A is 5.7% (payout 42.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

The net margin of Aegean Airlines S.A is 7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Aegean Airlines S.A is 23.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aegean Airlines S.A is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

The operating margin of Aegean Airlines S.A is −1.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

Revenue at Aegean Airlines S.A is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF)?

Earnings per share at Aegean Airlines S.A are growing +25.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Aegean Airlines S.A (AGZNF) carry?

The net debt of Aegean Airlines S.A is €1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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