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Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Aichi Steel Corporation $8.42, price $13.00, upside -35.3%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US

AS Aichi Steel Corporation logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Aichi Steel Corporation

AICHF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $8.42 · Strongly overvalued (−35%)
!Quality 42/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +4.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.12% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/14)
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Weak on future: 2 out of 100
!Weak on past: 21 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$13.00 $11.28 Fair Value $8.42 May 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

16‑month range $11.28 – $13.00 · fair‑value band $4.65 – $12.29 · the $13.00 price screens above the $8.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Aichi Steel Corporation manufactures and sells steel materials, forged products, electronic functional materials and components, and magnetic products in Japan, the United States, Thailand, China, and internationally. It operates through Steel Company, Stainless Steel Company, Forge Company, Smart Company, and Others segments.

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Aichi Steel Corporation manufactures and sells steel materials, forged products, electronic functional materials and components, and magnetic products in Japan, the United States, Thailand, China, and internationally. It operates through Steel Company, Stainless Steel Company, Forge Company, Smart Company, and Others segments. The company offers specialty steel products, including carbon and alloy steel for machine structural use, H-shaped steel for structural use, alloy steel bolting materials for high temperature service, microalloyed and boron steel, and spring and high carbon chrome bearing steel; hot and cold work tool steel; stainless steel products, such as angle and unequal angle bars, channel and wide channel bars, flat and square bars, compression bars, welded H-beams and T-bars, round bars, stainless steel bars for concrete reinforcement, and custom welded shaped steel, as well as stainless steel products for high-pressure hydrogen, blades, building structures, and water sluices. It also provides titanium round, angle, and flat bars; forged products, including engine, chassis, transmission, driveline, and e-axle units; ultra-sensitive magnetic/MI sensors, MAGFIT dental magnetic attachments, and MAGFINE bonded magnets; amorphous wires; electronic materials and components, including lead frames, bonding pads, and heat spreaders; and TetsuRiki Agri/Aqua iron fertilizers for crops. In addition, the company is involved in the production of flame retardant materials and forging dies; design and installation of industrial furnaces; mining, processing, and sale of limestone and other minerals; cargo transportation, handling, and storage; software development; and sale and maintenance of computers and accessories. Further, it engages in the sale of daily commodities; and provision of restaurant, lunch catering, and gardening services, etc. Aichi Steel Corporation was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Tokai, Japan.

Stock analysis

Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF) currently trades at $13.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.42, implying the stock looks roughly 54.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $16.19 per share, and 11 of the 23 models we run sit above the $13.00 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $3.55, and 12 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $4.65 (bear) to $12.29 (bull), the price of $13.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Aichi Steel Corporation reported revenue of ¥299B in FY2025 versus ¥202B in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥7.8B in FY2025, compounding +25.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $993M · P/E ratio 19.1 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.6800 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −35%, AICHF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.65 Fair Value $8.42 Bull $12.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $2.31 $3.67 $5.43 76
Growth DCF $2.34 $3.55 $5.02 75
Owner Earnings $3.71 $5.64 $8.13 73
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.31 $3.67 $5.43 76
Owner Earnings $3.71 $5.64 $8.13 73
5Y Revenue Exit $6.37 $11.56 $18.16 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $12.38 $22.55 $34.33 71
5Y P/E Exit $5.47 $9.90 $14.47 67
10Y Revenue Exit $4.35 $8.38 $13.74 62
10Y EBITDA Exit $8.09 $15.28 $24.79 63
10Y P/E Exit $4.10 $7.34 $11.22 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.28 $14.76 $19.41 62
Lynch FV $2.97 $4.25 $5.52 58
PEG = 1.0 $2.97 $4.25 $5.52 55
EPV $6.47 $7.50 $8.36 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple $9.90 $13.20 $16.50 63
P/S Multiple $9.90 $13.20 $16.50 58
P/B Multiple $9.90 $13.20 $16.50 55
EV/EBIT $11.46 $15.64 $19.82 66
EV/EBITDA $22.09 $29.80 $37.52 67
EV/Revenue $9.79 $14.45 $19.10 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $12.08 $16.19 $24.17 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $2.34 $3.55 $5.02 75
Economic Profit
Residual Income $16.54 $15.72 $12.40 68
ROIC Compounder $6.47 $7.50 $8.36 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $8.07 $11.53 $14.98 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−5.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 4%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.3% a year for the price.

AICHF screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 415 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside −35% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.19× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.65× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.52× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.8× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)2 · sector 3
PAST (return on equity)21 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)62 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $245.66 $116.05 −53%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $233.99 $127.14 −46%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,298 ₹1,103 −15%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹190.82 ₹147.13 −23%
Reliance, Inc RS $386.95 $211.57 −45%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.73 ¥8.07 +41%
POSCO Holdings PKX $59.05 $68.58 +16%
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥2.12 ¥0.5500 −74%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,175 ₹516.27 −56%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,891 ₹771.10 −59%

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Aichi Steel Corporation · Fair Value
$8.42 −54%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aichi Steel Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AICHF

Frequently asked questions

Is Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.42 versus a price of $13.00, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AICHF?
Our model-based fair value for Aichi Steel Corporation is $8.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.00.
What is the quality score of AICHF?
Aichi Steel Corporation has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.65, optimistic scenario $12.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aichi Steel Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.42, about −35% upside versus a price of $13.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.65, optimistic scenario $12.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
Aichi Steel Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥304B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Aichi Steel Corporation pay a dividend?
Aichi Steel Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aichi Steel Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +35.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AICHF use?
Our models discount Aichi Steel Corporation at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aichi Steel Corporation that is +35.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Aichi Steel Corporation grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies +35.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aichi Steel Corporation (+35.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.86 %: that much free cash flow Aichi Steel Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aichi Steel Corporation it is $8.42 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $13.00. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aichi Steel Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AICHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.00, fair value $8.42, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AICHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.42). For Aichi Steel Corporation the two are $4.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aichi Steel Corporation worth?
The market values Aichi Steel Corporation at about $993M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $13.00; our models calculate a fair value of $8.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AICHF?
Our models span a range for Aichi Steel Corporation: cautious scenario $4.65, base $8.42, optimistic $12.29 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $13.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AICHF?
Aichi Steel Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aichi Steel Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AICHF from its 52-week high?
Aichi Steel Corporation trades at $13.00, at its 52-week high of $13.00 and 15% above the low of $11.28 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aichi Steel Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aichi Steel Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $13.00, calculated fair value $8.42 (−35%), Quality Score 42/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AICHF calculated?
We run Aichi Steel Corporation through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aichi Steel Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $13.00. Our model-based fair value is $8.42, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aichi Steel Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($4.65 to $12.29). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Key figures of Aichi Steel Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
The market capitalisation of Aichi Steel Corporation is $993M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aichi Steel Corporation is 0.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
Earnings per share at Aichi Steel Corporation are $0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
The dividend yield of Aichi Steel Corporation is 3.1% (payout 59.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
The net margin of Aichi Steel Corporation is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aichi Steel Corporation is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aichi Steel Corporation is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
The operating margin of Aichi Steel Corporation is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
Revenue at Aichi Steel Corporation is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF)?
Earnings per share at Aichi Steel Corporation are growing −11.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aichi Steel Corporation (AICHF) carry?
The net debt of Aichi Steel Corporation is ¥28.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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