AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of AJ Lucas Group Ltd A$0.01, price A$0.01, upside +92.9%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0040 – A$0.2150 · fair‑value band A$0.0107 – A$0.0170 · the A$0.0070 price screens below the A$0.0135 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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AJ Lucas Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides drilling services in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Drilling and Oil and Gas Operations.
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AJ Lucas Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides drilling services in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Drilling and Oil and Gas Operations. The Drilling segment provides integrated professional drilling services primarily for exploration and degasification of coal mines, including recovery and commercialization of coal seam gas and associated services. The Oil and Gas Operations segment engages in the exploration and development of unconventional and conventional hydrocarbons in the United Kingdom. The company also offers engineering services, such as design of wells, drilling optimisation, and professional steering services, as well as specialised equipment for directional drilling programmes. It serves the energy, mining, and infrastructure sectors. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia. AJ Lucas Group Limited is a subsidiary of Kerogen Investments No. 1 (HK) Limited.
Stock analysis
AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) currently trades at A$0.0070, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0135, implying the stock looks roughly 48.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$0.1000 per share, and 9 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$0.0070 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.0300, and 0 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0107 (bear) to A$0.0170 (bull), the price of A$0.0070 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
AJ Lucas Group Ltd reported revenue of A$146M in FY2025 versus A$111M in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$15.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$11.0M (≈ $7.7M) · P/E ratio 0.2 · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0300 · Net margin −10.3% · Return on equity −1,551% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3% · Operating margin 52.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −55% fair-value upside, at 93%, AJL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0107Fair Value A$0.0135Bull A$0.0170
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0300 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.7% (2020) → 4.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Coking Coal · 27 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+92.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets25.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)25.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)52.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.08× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF3.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA2.3× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 10
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AJ Lucas Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AJL
Frequently asked questions
Is AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0135 versus a price of A$0.0070, about +93% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AJL?
Our model-based fair value for AJ Lucas Group Ltd is A$0.0135 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0070.
What is the quality score of AJL?
AJ Lucas Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0135 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0107, optimistic scenario A$0.0170. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AJ Lucas Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0135, about +93% upside versus a price of A$0.0070 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0107, optimistic scenario A$0.0170. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
AJ Lucas Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$137M (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AJ Lucas Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +23.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.2 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AJL use?
Our models discount AJ Lucas Group Ltd at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AJ Lucas Group Ltd that is +23.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AJ Lucas Group Ltd grew -0.2 % a year. The price currently implies +23.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AJ Lucas Group Ltd (+23.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.48 %: that much free cash flow AJ Lucas Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AJ Lucas Group Ltd it is A$0.0135 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of A$0.0070. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AJ Lucas Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, AJL trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0070, fair value A$0.0135, a gap of about +93% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AJL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0070); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0135). For AJ Lucas Group Ltd the two are A$0.0065 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AJ Lucas Group Ltd worth?
The market values AJ Lucas Group Ltd at about A$11.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0070; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0135 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AJL?
Our models span a range for AJ Lucas Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0107, base A$0.0135, optimistic A$0.0170 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price A$0.0070). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AJL?
AJ Lucas Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.2 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.0135 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.3.
What is the PEG ratio of AJL?
The PEG ratio of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Balance-sheet figures for AJ Lucas Group Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AJL from its 52-week high?
AJ Lucas Group Ltd trades at A$0.0070, about 59% below its 52-week high of A$0.0170 and 17% above the low of A$0.0060 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0135 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AJ Lucas Group Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Warrior Met Coal, Inc, PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk,, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AJ Lucas Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price A$0.0070, calculated fair value A$0.0135 (+93%), Quality Score 48/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AJL calculated?
We run AJ Lucas Group Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0135, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. AJ Lucas Group Ltd currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was A$0.0070. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0135, about +93% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AJ Lucas Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0107). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of AJ Lucas Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The market capitalisation of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is A$11.0M (≈ $7.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is 0.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Earnings per share at AJ Lucas Group Ltd are A$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The net margin of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is −10.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is −1,551% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The operating margin of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is 52.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Revenue at AJ Lucas Group Ltd is growing −11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Earnings per share at AJ Lucas Group Ltd are growing −54.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) carry?
The net debt of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is A$120M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 40.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 29, 2026