AJ Lucas Group (AJL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$11.0M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated yesterday
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0076 to A$0.0081), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0040 – A$0.2150 · fair‑value band A$0.0076 – A$0.0081 · the A$0.0080 price screens above the A$0.0078 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
AJ Lucas Group (AJL) currently trades at A$0.0080, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0078, implying the stock looks roughly 2.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, AJ Lucas Group generated revenue of A$137M at a net margin of 25.6%. Revenue declined 11.8% year over year. Net debt stands at A$120M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 0.3. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0076 (bear case) to A$0.0081 (bull case); at A$0.0080, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -3%, AJL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$0.0300) versus DCF Models (A$0.0300). Highest evidence: Rev-Margin DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AJ Lucas Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides drilling services in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Drilling and Oil and Gas Operations.
Full company description
AJ Lucas Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides drilling services in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Drilling and Oil and Gas Operations. The Drilling segment provides integrated professional drilling services primarily for exploration and degasification of coal mines, including recovery and commercialization of coal seam gas and associated services. The Oil and Gas Operations segment engages in the exploration and development of unconventional and conventional hydrocarbons in the United Kingdom. The company also offers engineering services, such as design of wells, drilling optimisation, and professional steering services, as well as specialised equipment for directional drilling programmes. It serves the energy, mining, and infrastructure sectors. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia. AJ Lucas Group Limited is a subsidiary of Kerogen Investments No. 1 (HK) Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AJ Lucas Group reported revenue of A$146M in FY2025 versus A$111M in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$15.0M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Coking Coal · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR | 1,615 IDR | 1,251 IDR | -23% |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC | $96.72 | $18.35 | -81% |
| Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 | ¥3.62 | ¥1.24 | -66% |
| Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR | $159.52 | $45.15 | -72% |
| Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 | HK$2.68 | HK$2.34 | -13% |
| Shanxi Coking Co 600740 | ¥3.54 | ¥1.75 | -51% |
| Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 | ¥5.50 | ¥1.72 | -69% |
| Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 | ¥2.74 | ¥1.32 | -52% |
| SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC | $9.26 | $3.67 | -60% |
| Ramaco Resources, Inc METC | $10.91 | $1.80 | -84% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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