AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AJ Lucas Group Ltd stock A$0.00, price A$0.01, that is 18.3% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0040 – A$0.2150 · fair‑value band A$0.0047 – A$0.0060 · the A$0.0060 price screens above the A$0.0049 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.
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AJ Lucas Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides drilling services in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Drilling and Oil and Gas Operations.
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The Drilling segment provides integrated professional drilling services primarily for exploration and degasification of coal mines, including recovery and commercialization of coal seam gas and associated services.
The Oil and Gas Operations segment engages in the exploration and development of unconventional and conventional hydrocarbons in the United Kingdom.
The company also offers engineering services, such as design of wells, drilling optimisation, and professional steering services, as well as specialised equipment for directional drilling programmes. It serves the energy, mining, and infrastructure sectors.
The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia. AJ Lucas Group Limited is a subsidiary of Kerogen Investments No. 1 (HK) Limited.
Stock analysis
AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) currently trades at A$0.0060, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0049, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 17 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0047 (bear) to A$0.0060 (bull), the price of A$0.0060 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2026: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2026.
AJ Lucas Group Ltd reported revenue of A$120M in FY2026 versus A$123M in FY2022, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$28.5M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$8.3M (≈ $5.6M) Micro · P/E ratio 0.3 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0200 · Net margin 23.8% · Return on equity −1,551% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −18%, AJL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.0047Fair Value A$0.0049BullA$0.0060
Price A$0.0060 · Downside -18.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0075 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$0.1400A$0.2000A$0.320079
Growth DCFA$0.1400A$0.2100A$0.310078
Owner EarningsA$0.2500A$0.3500A$0.540076
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$0.1400A$0.2000A$0.320079
Owner EarningsA$0.2500A$0.3500A$0.540076
5Y Revenue ExitA$0.0600A$0.0800A$0.120072
5Y EBITDA ExitA$0.0800A$0.1300A$0.190074
5Y P/E ExitA$0.2000A$0.3200A$0.470070
10Y Revenue ExitA$0.0900A$0.1100A$0.130068
10Y EBITDA ExitA$0.1000A$0.1400A$0.170070
10Y P/E ExitA$0.1700A$0.2500A$0.340064
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.1400A$0.1800A$0.200067
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.3300A$0.4300A$0.540063
P/S MultipleA$0.1300A$0.1700A$0.220058
EV/EBITA$0.0100A$0.0400A$0.060061
EV/EBITDAA$0.0500A$0.0800A$0.120065
EV/Revenuen/aA$0.0100A$0.040050
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$0.1400A$0.2100A$0.310078
Rev-Margin DCFA$0.0600A$0.0900A$0.130072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.2300A$0.3300A$0.430067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2026: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2026.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+49.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+49.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 7%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 13.1%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Coking Coal · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−18.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets34.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)23.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−2.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−24.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)0.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AJ Lucas Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AJL
Frequently asked questions
Is AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0049 versus a price of A$0.0060, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AJL?
Our model-based fair value for AJ Lucas Group Ltd is A$0.0049 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0060.
What is the quality score of AJL?
AJ Lucas Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0049 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0047, optimistic scenario A$0.0060. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AJ Lucas Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0049, about 18% lower versus a price of A$0.0060 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0047, optimistic scenario A$0.0060. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
AJ Lucas Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$120M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AJ Lucas Group Ltd it is A$0.0049 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$0.0060. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Growth Earnings).
Is AJ Lucas Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, AJL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0060, fair value A$0.0049, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AJL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0060); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0049). For AJ Lucas Group Ltd the two are A$0.0011 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AJ Lucas Group Ltd worth?
The market values AJ Lucas Group Ltd at about A$8.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0060; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0049 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AJL?
Our models span a range for AJ Lucas Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0047, base A$0.0049, optimistic A$0.0060 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$0.0060). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AJL?
AJ Lucas Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.3 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.0049 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of AJL?
The PEG ratio of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is 0.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Balance-sheet figures for AJ Lucas Group Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AJL from its 52-week high?
AJ Lucas Group Ltd trades at A$0.0060, about 65% below its 52-week high of A$0.0170 and at the low of A$0.0060 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0049 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AJ Lucas Group Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Warrior Met Coal, Inc, PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk,, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Coronado Global Resources Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AJ Lucas Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$0.0060, calculated fair value A$0.0049 (−18%), Quality Score 60/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AJL calculated?
We run AJ Lucas Group Ltd through 17 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0049 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. AJ Lucas Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was A$0.0060. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0049, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AJ Lucas Group Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of AJ Lucas Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The market capitalisation of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is A$8.3M (≈ $5.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is 0.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Earnings per share at AJ Lucas Group Ltd are A$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The net margin of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is 23.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is −1,551% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is 12.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
The operating margin of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is −2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Revenue at AJ Lucas Group Ltd is growing −24.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL)?
Earnings per share at AJ Lucas Group Ltd are growing −54.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) generate?
The free cash flow of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is A$20.2M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AJ Lucas Group Ltd (AJL) carry?
The net debt of AJ Lucas Group Ltd is A$84.1M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Why does AJ Lucas Group Ltd meet the fair value rule although the fair value shown is lower?
Peak profit dampened: A$0.0140 → A$0.0049. The latest annual profit is far above the years before, and such peaks rarely last. So we calculate cautiously with A$0.0049 instead of A$0.0140. If the profit stays high, we ease the caution year by year. As in the backtest, the fair value rule checks the value before: +133% against the price.
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Nov 10, 2026