Alcadon Group AB (ALCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Alcadon Group AB SEK 82.26, price SEK 30.00, upside +174.2%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 16.50 – kr 125.20 · fair‑value band kr 50.00 – kr 156.45 · the kr 30.00 price screens below the kr 82.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Alcadon Group AB (publ) provides data and telecommunication products and systems in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Benelux.
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Alcadon Group AB (publ) provides data and telecommunication products and systems in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Benelux. The company offers structured cabling systems for offices, industry, municipalities, and county councils; multi-fiber push on systems and data center solutions; and active communications equipment, such as switches and routers. It also provides fiber networks/FTTx solutions, including fiber network solutions comprising fiber to the home/building/premises and 5G solutions, and fiber solutions for energy companies, city networks, and operators; and smart home solutions for connected homes, as well as solutions for electricity and communication in residential properties. In addition, the company offers training, network design, troubleshooting, fiber welds, and rental services, as well as measuring instrument copper/fiber and fiber blowing equipment. It serves installers, telecommunication operators, construction companies, system integrators, municipalities, data centers, and other end users. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Alcadon Group AB (ALCA) currently trades at kr 30.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 82.26, implying the stock looks roughly 63.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 70.87 per share, and 10 of the 14 models we run sit above the kr 30.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 8.31, and 4 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 50.00 (bear) to kr 156.45 (bull), the price of kr 30.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alcadon Group AB reported revenue of 1.4B SEK in FY2025 versus 736M SEK in FY2021, a compound +18.1%/yr. Reported net income was −11.1M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 735M SEK (≈ $74.1M) · P/E ratio 17.5 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) kr 1.71 · Net margin −0.8% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% · Operating margin 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at 174%, ALCA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 50.00Fair Value kr 82.26Bull kr 156.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.26 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.0%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+78.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.2% (2020) → 5.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 316 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+172% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.10× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alcadon Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALCA
Frequently asked questions
Is Alcadon Group AB (ALCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 82.26 versus a price of kr 30.00, about +174% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALCA?
Our model-based fair value for Alcadon Group AB is kr 82.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 30.00.
What is the quality score of ALCA?
Alcadon Group AB has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 82.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 50.00, optimistic scenario kr 156.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alcadon Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 82.26, about +174% upside versus a price of kr 30.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 50.00, optimistic scenario kr 156.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
Alcadon Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alcadon Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALCA use?
Our models discount Alcadon Group AB at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alcadon Group AB that is +0.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alcadon Group AB (ALCA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alcadon Group AB grew +25.1 % a year. The price currently implies +0.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alcadon Group AB (+0.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.75 %: that much free cash flow Alcadon Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alcadon Group AB it is kr 82.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 30.00. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alcadon Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALCA trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 30.00, fair value kr 82.26, a gap of about +174% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 30.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 82.26). For Alcadon Group AB the two are kr 52.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alcadon Group AB worth?
The market values Alcadon Group AB at about 735M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 30.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 82.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALCA?
Our models span a range for Alcadon Group AB: cautious scenario kr 50.00, base kr 82.26, optimistic kr 156.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 30.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALCA?
Alcadon Group AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 82.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alcadon Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALCA from its 52-week high?
Alcadon Group AB trades at kr 30.00, about 17% below its 52-week high of kr 36.00 and 51% above the low of kr 19.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 82.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alcadon Group AB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alcadon Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 30.00, calculated fair value kr 82.26 (+174%), Quality Score 43/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALCA calculated?
We run Alcadon Group AB through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 82.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alcadon Group AB currently trades 174 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 30.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 82.26, about +174% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alcadon Group AB right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 50.00). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (kr 50.00 to kr 156.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Alcadon Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
The market capitalisation of Alcadon Group AB is 735M SEK (≈ $74.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alcadon Group AB is 0.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
Earnings per share at Alcadon Group AB are kr 1.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
The net margin of Alcadon Group AB is −0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alcadon Group AB is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alcadon Group AB is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
The operating margin of Alcadon Group AB is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
Revenue at Alcadon Group AB is growing −10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alcadon Group AB (ALCA)?
Earnings per share at Alcadon Group AB are growing +30.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alcadon Group AB (ALCA) carry?
The net debt of Alcadon Group AB is 342M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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