Alcadon Group (ALCA) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · SE · Market cap 755M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from kr 42.98 to kr 39.22 (−8.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 25% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (kr 25.92 to kr 52.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from kr 25.92 (bear) to kr 52.51 (bull), base kr 39.22. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 43/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 16.50 – kr 125.20 · fair‑value band kr 25.92 – kr 52.51 · the kr 31.50 price screens below the kr 39.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Alcadon Group (ALCA) currently trades at kr 31.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 39.22, implying the stock looks roughly 24.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alcadon Group generated revenue of 1.4B SEK at a net margin of -0.6%. Revenue declined 10.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at 342M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 25.92 (bear case) to kr 52.51 (bull case); at kr 31.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at 25%, ALCA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 71.19) versus Earnings-Based (kr 10.74). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alcadon Group AB (publ) provides data and telecommunication products and systems in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Benelux.
Full company description
Alcadon Group AB (publ) provides data and telecommunication products and systems in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Benelux. The company offers structured cabling systems for offices, industry, municipalities, and county councils; multi-fiber push on systems and data center solutions; and active communications equipment, such as switches and routers. It also provides fiber networks/FTTx solutions, including fiber network solutions comprising fiber to the home/building/premises and 5G solutions, and fiber solutions for energy companies, city networks, and operators; and smart home solutions for connected homes, as well as solutions for electricity and communication in residential properties. In addition, the company offers training, network design, troubleshooting, fiber welds, and rental services, as well as measuring instrument copper/fiber and fiber blowing equipment. It serves installers, telecommunication operators, construction companies, system integrators, municipalities, data centers, and other end users. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alcadon Group reported revenue of kr 1.4B in FY2025 versus kr 736M in FY2021, a compound +18.1%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 11.1M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Communication Equipment · 286 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO | $119.25 | $43.05 | -64% |
| Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 | ¥1,094 | ¥171.09 | -84% |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 | ¥56.50 | ¥28.65 | -49% |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 | ¥482.88 | ¥155.05 | -68% |
| Nokia Oyj NOK | $11.25 | $2.67 | -76% |
| Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI | $413.31 | $190.43 | -54% |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 | ¥244.13 | ¥32.04 | -87% |
| Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC | $11.72 | $15.96 | +36% |
| Accton Technology Corporation 2345 | 2,090 TWD | 846.28 TWD | -60% |
| ZTE Corporation 000063 | ¥40.00 | ¥15.75 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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