Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Allegiant Travel Company $131, price $77.26, upside +69.1%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $36.36 – $201.20 · fair‑value band $42.38 – $140.71 · the $77.26 price screens below the $130.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel and leisure services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. The company offers scheduled air transportation on limited-frequency, nonstop flights between underserved cities and leisure destinations.
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Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel and leisure services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. The company offers scheduled air transportation on limited-frequency, nonstop flights between underserved cities and leisure destinations. As of February 1, 2026, it operated a fleet of 106 Airbus A320 series aircraft and 16 Boeing 737 series aircraft. The company also provides air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation, including larger seats, baggage fees, advance seat assignments, travel protection products, change fees, priority boarding, customer convenience fee, food and beverage purchases on board, and other air-related services, as well as use of its call center for purchases. In addition, it offers third party travel products, such as hotel rooms, rental cars, and travel insurance from a third-party insurer; air transportation services; and charter services on a year-round and ad-hoc basis. Further, the company owns and operates a golf course. Allegiant Travel Company was founded in 1997 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock analysis
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) currently trades at $77.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $130.66, implying the stock looks roughly 40.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $106.62 per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the $77.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $25.80, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $42.38 (bear) to $140.71 (bull), the price of $77.26 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Allegiant Travel Company reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$44.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 66.6 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) $1.16 · Net margin −1.7% · Return on equity 1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin 9.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 69%, ALGT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $42.38Fair Value $130.66Bull $140.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8485 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−28.4% (2020) → 6.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+28.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.8% a year for the price and +25.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Allegiant Travel Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside+69% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth37% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allegiant Travel Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALGT
Frequently asked questions
Is Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $130.66 versus a price of $77.26, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALGT?
Our model-based fair value for Allegiant Travel Company is $130.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $77.26.
What is the quality score of ALGT?
Allegiant Travel Company has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $130.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $42.38, optimistic scenario $140.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allegiant Travel Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $130.66, about +69% upside versus a price of $77.26 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $42.38, optimistic scenario $140.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
Allegiant Travel Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allegiant Travel Company would have to grow free cash flow by +21.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALGT use?
Our models discount Allegiant Travel Company at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allegiant Travel Company that is +21.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Allegiant Travel Company grew +21.4 % a year. The price currently implies +21.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Allegiant Travel Company (+21.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.34 %: that much free cash flow Allegiant Travel Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allegiant Travel Company it is $130.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $77.26. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allegiant Travel Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALGT trades below its calculated fair value: price $77.26, fair value $130.66, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALGT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($77.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($130.66). For Allegiant Travel Company the two are $53.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allegiant Travel Company worth?
The market values Allegiant Travel Company at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $77.26; our models calculate a fair value of $130.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALGT?
Our models span a range for Allegiant Travel Company: cautious scenario $42.38, base $130.66, optimistic $140.71 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $77.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALGT?
Allegiant Travel Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 66.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $130.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 2.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ALGT?
The PEG ratio of Allegiant Travel Company is 0.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allegiant Travel Company (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 1.8%, debt of 1.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALGT from its 52-week high?
Allegiant Travel Company trades at $77.26, about 35% below its 52-week high of $119.16 and 33% above the low of $58.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $130.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allegiant Travel Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allegiant Travel Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $77.26, calculated fair value $130.66 (+69%), Quality Score 43/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALGT calculated?
We run Allegiant Travel Company through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $130.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Allegiant Travel Company currently trades 69 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $77.26. Our model-based fair value is $130.66, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allegiant Travel Company right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($42.38 to $140.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Allegiant Travel Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
The market capitalisation of Allegiant Travel Company is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allegiant Travel Company is 0.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
Earnings per share at Allegiant Travel Company are $1.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 66.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
The net margin of Allegiant Travel Company is −1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allegiant Travel Company is 1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allegiant Travel Company is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
The operating margin of Allegiant Travel Company is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
Revenue at Allegiant Travel Company is growing +36.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)?
Earnings per share at Allegiant Travel Company are growing +32.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) carry?
The net debt of Allegiant Travel Company is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 22.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026