Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Alicon Castalloy Limited ₹443, price ₹730, upside -39.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹528.65 – ₹1,494 · fair‑value band ₹332.00 – ₹553.34 · the ₹730.05 price screens above the ₹442.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Alicon Castalloy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells aluminium castings in India.
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Alicon Castalloy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells aluminium castings in India. It offers 2 and 4-wheelers, fully finished, diesel, and petrol cylinder heads; transcradle, inlet pipe, cac tank, battery tray, motor stator, top yoke/bridge fork top, enclosure body, inverter casing, cooling/junction box, transmission and crank cases, e-axle, and HCV coolant collector products, as well as controller, compressor, motor, distributor, and roof sensor housing parts. The company also exports its products to approximately 18 countries. It serves automotive and e-mobility industries; and non-automotive industry, such as internal combustion engine, infrastructure, defence, medical, energy, agriculture, and aerospace. The company was formerly known as Enkei Castalloy Limited and changed its name to Alicon Castalloy Limited in December 2010. Alicon Castalloy Limited was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Pune, India.
Stock analysis
Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) currently trades at ₹730.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹442.67, implying the stock looks roughly 64.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹875.39 per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the ₹730.05 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹60.78, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹332.00 (bear) to ₹553.34 (bull), the price of ₹730.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Alicon Castalloy Limited reported revenue of ₹17.8B in FY2026 versus ₹10.8B in FY2022, a compound +13.3%/yr. Reported net income was ₹344M in FY2026, compounding +9.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹12.0B (≈ $125M) · P/E ratio 34.7 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) ₹21.03 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −39%, ALICON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹332.00Fair Value ₹442.67Bull ₹553.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹10.37 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.6% vs 0.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price.
Compare Alicon Castalloy Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−39.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.6% · Above median
Return on assets4.5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)34.7× · Pricier than median
P/B1.90× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.67× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.3× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)83· sector 37
PAST (return on equity)23· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)17· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹442.67 versus a price of ₹730.05, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALICON?
Our model-based fair value for Alicon Castalloy Limited is ₹442.67 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹730.05.
What is the quality score of ALICON?
Alicon Castalloy Limited has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹442.67 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹332.00, optimistic scenario ₹553.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alicon Castalloy Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹442.67, about −39% upside versus a price of ₹730.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹332.00, optimistic scenario ₹553.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
Alicon Castalloy Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹17.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Alicon Castalloy Limited pay a dividend?
Alicon Castalloy Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.86% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alicon Castalloy Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +15.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALICON use?
Our models discount Alicon Castalloy Limited at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alicon Castalloy Limited that is +15.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alicon Castalloy Limited grew +15.9 % a year. The price currently implies +15.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alicon Castalloy Limited (+15.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.46 %: that much free cash flow Alicon Castalloy Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alicon Castalloy Limited it is ₹442.67 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹730.05. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alicon Castalloy Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ALICON trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹730.05, fair value ₹442.67, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALICON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹730.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹442.67). For Alicon Castalloy Limited the two are ₹287.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alicon Castalloy Limited worth?
The market values Alicon Castalloy Limited at about ₹12.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹730.05; our models calculate a fair value of ₹442.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALICON?
Our models span a range for Alicon Castalloy Limited: cautious scenario ₹332.00, base ₹442.67, optimistic ₹553.34 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹730.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALICON?
Alicon Castalloy Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹442.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alicon Castalloy Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALICON from its 52-week high?
Alicon Castalloy Limited trades at ₹730.05, about 26% below its 52-week high of ₹981.05 and 25% above the low of ₹584.48 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹442.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alicon Castalloy Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alicon Castalloy Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹730.05, calculated fair value ₹442.67 (−39%), Quality Score 48/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALICON calculated?
We run Alicon Castalloy Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹442.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Alicon Castalloy Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was ₹730.05. Our model-based fair value is ₹442.67, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alicon Castalloy Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹553.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) come from?
Earnings per share at Alicon Castalloy Limited grew +4.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin +15.3 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −14.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alicon Castalloy Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
The market capitalisation of Alicon Castalloy Limited is ₹12.0B (≈ $125M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alicon Castalloy Limited is 0.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
Earnings per share at Alicon Castalloy Limited are ₹21.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
The dividend yield of Alicon Castalloy Limited is 0.9% (payout 29.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
The net margin of Alicon Castalloy Limited is 1.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alicon Castalloy Limited is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alicon Castalloy Limited is 23.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
The operating margin of Alicon Castalloy Limited is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
Revenue at Alicon Castalloy Limited is growing +16.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON)?
Earnings per share at Alicon Castalloy Limited are growing −15.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alicon Castalloy Limited (ALICON) carry?
The net debt of Alicon Castalloy Limited is ₹3.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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